Thankfully I live in the USA where we're totally safe because we reject science! But don't you try coming here for safety, we hate everybody else. You'll probably just be sent to gitmo.
this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2025
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Just don't look up, duh
Outside of extremely extenuating circumstances, this isn't a worry. We already have proof-of-concept tech like DART to divert asteroids, aerospace engineers can use this to get governments to fund them even better, asteroid goes behind the sun for 3 years, asteroid diverting technology advances even further, in 2028 when the path of travel becomes more precise the chance of hitting us gets revised down to zero, and we've advanced our technology should anything more serious come our way in the future
yeah, we really don't have to worry.
With the DART mission tech, we can get our hit chances into the 90 percents
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Backup is that we have a team of deep sea oil drillers go up there
Why are we trying our best idea second?
@OneTwoThree @fossilesque actually we want this asteroid to hit Earth. Remove one threat from the sky. Divert to hit in a safe place. This one is safe if it hit in a remote location.
An interesting thought is that if it actually hits, this might provide the impetus for some countries to get their shit together and get into space for good. Potentially changing the course of history.
The sad thing is that according to Scott Manley video the areas it can hit are equatorial Africa or South of India, so lot of countries will try to ignore it
Until those countries start planning a meteor re route, which if done improperly could push the impact zone anywhere.
Everyone saying "they can evacuate" clearly doesn't remember how bad the covid response was.
There will be anti-space conspiracy theorists. The ownership class would demand people continue working until the last possible minute (and beyond). It would be politicized, because some people are unbelievably stupid, cruel, and selfish, and enough people are so stupid they'll buy in.
Now, if we could make the meteor fall on a location occupied solely by the people who don't believe in science...
Everyone saying “they can evacuate” clearly doesn’t remember how bad the covid response was.
or not paying attention to political winds welcoming the evacuees.
It would make sense to have a more cooperative world, even if cooperation involves "victims" compensating those able to protect them. Hope the US can continue to contribute tracking resources, at least.
Look, it's really simple. Just don't look up. If we collectively ignore the problem, it won't be a problem.
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Also the impact risk corridor passes through states that are poorly equipped for large civil defence operations: Ethiopia and the CAR are in civil wars, Yemen is in a civil war with the majority of the country under the control of an unrecognized government, and the South Sudanese government is quite week—being at peace only for the last 5 years
… that’s exactly what would happen, it would land on all the people who don’t believe in science.
If this happens frequently enough the Republican Party will just vanish.
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So what level of calamity are we talking about here? 3% doesn’t sound that low to me.
I recall hearing it was medium-ish nuclear weapon sized, but not wipe out civilisation size. Wherever it's heading would need to be evacuated.
That was a week ago, though, and I'm sure the size projections will be updated as we get more data.
This is correct. Current estimates place a possible impact event at an energy release of ~7.8 Megatons of TNT. Approximately 500 times the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Comparable to the Tunguska Event. This is accounting for current size estimates under 100m in diameter.
It is a very serious asteroid. The Tunguska Event could have killed millions of people. The primary reason it didn't was because it happened in the middle of Siberia. The primary witnesses to the devastation were local native groups who still lived that for out, of which there were few. It wasn't properly investigated for over a decade because of the remoteness of where it happened and the low priority as it didn't affect very many people. If that happened over a major city the consequences would be utterly devastating.
It's not K-T Extinction event level, but it is nonetheless quite serious.
We'll get a better idea of whether it'll hit or not in 2028 the next time it passes close to earth, which will give us plenty of time to respond before it might hit in 2032.
4 years to develop an effective anti-asteroid response?
Well, yeah. Deflecting an impact that's scheduled 4 years in the future wouldn't take much force and the DART mission proved that it's achievable. We can just do that again in the months between when the asteroid comes back around and when it flies past us.
I think the DART mission picked a target of some convenience. This is no arbitrary target - it picked us. The stakes are a lot higher if failure is not an option. And of course, the world is currently tearing itself apart, so that won't help when the moment for unity and collaboration approaches.
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They arent 100% sure on the size but itll be a regional disaster. Few hundred square miles of destruction. And theyll be able to evacuate the area before hand. Itll land somewhere between south america and india theres a line map you can find of the area that could be hit and thatll get narrowed down as time goes on. We will know where its gonna hit far in advance if it does hit.
If it is on a collision course we probably have time to do something about it. If we don't do anything about it it'll probably hit the ocean and it's not big enough to cause any kind of crazy mega tsunami or anything like that. If it does hit land it'll probably hit in the middle of nowhere and kill, like, 12 people, and if it does manage to beat all the odds and hit a major city it will be a major disaster, but it's not going to be the apocalypse or anything.
Well we wouldn't have to worry about global warming anymore
This size meteor would destroy a city but not have lasting planet-scale effects. Think Tonguska event.
Yes we would? This isnt a planet killer. Its a city killer. Plus theyll know where itll hit and can evacuate the area before hand. There is no reason a single person should die from this rock unless someone does something stupid.
Gimme that flush COME ON
Am I being wooshed? It's impossible to get a flush with the two spades. Or the Aces.
Hearts but not for the 3% guy. Still low odds for a flush, yeah?
Just needs a world card
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"I'm gonna go all in."
this is my favorite poker sim
Ngl mine too. I ended up never finishing it and using it as a great poker sim. 😅
it's definitely balanced towards giving you better hands.
I've pulled like 8 royal flushes out of it with less than 10 hours spent playing poker in there. I've never even seen a royal flush in other contexts.
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Revised down to 0.27%
Just when it was getting good too! One of these days...