politics

My gut says Trump is going to win. And I think the voter intimidation, fraud, right-wing takeover of election boards and volunteers, legislation and laws, republican rapid-response lawyers and staff ready to bring multiple suits, and SCOTUS already making a decision to anoint themselves as who determines the winner of the race is what locks it.

Polls are basically a coin flip before you figure in the above, because you can't model that in a poll. Polls assume that voters that intend to vote will vote and can vote, their vote will be counted, the results will be accurately counted, the results will be accurately reported, and the results will be certified.

Since none of that is secure, there is, in my opinion, a ~3% Trump advantage in battleground states. If I'm right, that basically seals it.

I have been saying ever since last year that Michigan is gonna be red this season and it's gonna be an election day "surprise" just like with Clinton because surprise surprise the polls and primary predictions were off by a full +5%.

Why in the actual f**** would the region most known for an American Arab population with direct family ties to Gaza and especially Lebanon (every since the 70s) willingly vote for Harris after literally getting to see Biden's governemnt kill their family members in real time over the course of a year. It is the HQ of the uncommitted movement which was refused any sort of demand for change on Gaza/Israel policy during the DNC rally.

Forget utilitarianism, they didn't even vote for Hillary because of her antics as Secretary of State under Obama. I'm pretty sure genocide is not a smaller issue.

And that's just Detroit by itself. Ann Arbor was just a constant 9 months of student protests with police arrests on Umich which is the so called liberal capital campus of the USA.

Even all this UAW and Union shilling isn't worth jack shit, most of those workers are from Detroit and will happily ignore party leader voting recommendations. It has even been an old recurring joke that every candidate passing though goes directly to one of the big 3 Auto OEMs to get a monkey crowd of factory workers for PR.

Harris can still win without Michigan, but they have already decided that there is no need to focus on the uncommitted vote because they believe they don't need it, or are willing to actually lose over it.

Hilariously, I do think Whitmer and the state level democrats will do just fine.

Maybe if you didn't alienate the largest Arab population in the country by insisting on actively participating in the Israeli genocide, Michigan wouldn't be so fucking close! 🤬

That any candidate running against Trump could possibly be a close race really is a knife to my faith-in-humanity's liver, and that fucker's been in critical condition since before Trump. What the fuck is wrong with us? We've already seen this geriatric Hitler wanna-be in action once already, and just about half of the voters looked at that dumpster fire and decided they want more?

He could be running against a literal cockroach, and that roach should win in a landslide because it isn't god-damned Trump.