this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2024
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politics

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(page 2) 25 comments
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[–] [email protected] 33 points 4 months ago (7 children)

If Diaper wins I'm done. Just move to the boonies and just go full media blackout until 2028 or when the zombies show up

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[–] [email protected] 112 points 4 months ago (13 children)

As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we're at...

Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.

Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.

Let's look at the map:

So, of the "Undecideds", PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.

PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.

So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.

If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.

Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Holy Kornacki, thank you for putting that together.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago

I don't even have a big board!

[–] [email protected] 51 points 4 months ago

God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 4 months ago (8 children)

Hope she wins, and pushes through something to dismantle the collage. We need ranked choice.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 4 months ago (6 children)

Unless she gets the presidency, the Democrats roll up supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a majority of states put in Democratic governors, this isn't happening. IE: it isn't happening.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Don't hold your breath. The system works for the right people

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[–] [email protected] 35 points 4 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago (3 children)

This is just a bandaid and the conservative justices on the supreme court will strike it down for some stupid reason.

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[–] [email protected] 56 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

Cat ladies doing our part! 💪😻

[–] [email protected] 28 points 4 months ago

Don’t stop. The popular vote isn’t enough, and Trump is still a slight favorite to win.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 4 months ago (2 children)

Cat gentleman doing my part! 💪😻

[–] [email protected] 16 points 4 months ago

Cat doing my part! 💪😻

[–] [email protected] 14 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Cat theydie doing my part! 💪😻

[–] [email protected] 60 points 4 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago (6 children)

Which is good. It will prevent complacency, by either the Harris campaign or her supporters.

She really is the underdog in this race. The deck's stacked against her.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 4 months ago

Lol, no... They'll try to do it again. If Trump is defeated, it will be despite the normal Democrat idiocy.

I'm very against Trump, but fuck the democrats. They're overconfident morons.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 4 months ago (1 children)

The fact that it’s this close further erodes my faith in humanity. That’s not good.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (2 children)
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[–] [email protected] 12 points 4 months ago

Being motivated doesn't change 300 year old bullshit laws that remove the democratic power of of all but a handful of swing states voting.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 4 months ago (3 children)

No. It’s not good. It means we are going to get screwed by the electoral college bullshit again.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

You misunderstand. The fact that the EC is undemocratic bullshit isn't what's good. What's good is that we're staying aware of the problem. We know there's a not insignificant chance Harris ends up Clinton 2.0. So this time, we have a chance to avoid complacency.

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