this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2024
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-131
Russia’s deadly overnight barrage of missiles and drones hits over half of Ukraine (apnews.com)
submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

This is false, as I noted in another post:

"The survey, conducted by Navigator Research between July 31 and August 8, showed the Democratic presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump are tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Harris is behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania."

Current polling shows Harris up in Michigan and Wisconsin, tied in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

It goes to show just how much polling can change in less than a month.

Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.

Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.

Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.

The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris' race to lose there.

Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let's plot it on the map:

Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She's 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.

Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he's at 265. NC + AZ he's at 262.

This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Ty, I appreciate you throwing these type of breakdowns in the comments of 'national' polls too.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago

"new" from August 8th lol

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Marked as misinformation.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Also, the Democratic election team didn't even dignify it with a response:

Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 2 months ago

Report this as blatant misinformation.

Poll is a month old and there is zero reason to post this bullshit unless you are trying to affect voter turn out.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I was just looking at the poll averages by state yesterday and saw nearly the opposite of this bullshit.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

When you sort by competitiveness, you see Trump with tiny leads in Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, followed by Harris leading in every swing state until you hit Florida. Not only is Harris leading in enough states to potentially win the election, but her leads are stronger than Trump's.

Obviously there's a long road to election day, the only poll that matters is the actual election, and even when that's done there's likely to be a dispute if Trump loses. But also remember that shit like this article exists to discourage you and reduce the enthusiasm of anyone who wants a Harris win and Trump loss. Be encouraged, keep fighting the good fight, and fucking vote no matter what state you're in.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 2 months ago

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

She's ahead in all listed polls in WI conducted after this one. And was tied in this one, which is the oldest of all polls listed.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 2 months ago

vote

[–] [email protected] 34 points 2 months ago (2 children)

This data is almost a month old?

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 months ago

Yeah, Biden dropped out on July 22nd, and this poll started a week later, so I’d call it essentially useless. Polls are a snapshot in time, and the time of this poll has passed.