Amazing how not running a candidate over 70 has been hugely beneficial for democrats.
this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2024
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For no reason at all I started reading old Archie comics from the very first printing a couple years ago, and I really really appreciated this post
polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls polls
Pollllllllllllllllllllssssssssssssss!
jazz hands
nate silver's election forecasts are what, within 5% 3/4 of the time?
5% is a huge margin in polling. He should be within that margin much more often than 75%.
60% of the time, it works every time
But do we have a forecast for whether Nate's algorithm will be accurate, based on past accuracy and factors like the economy and fascists pushing a clueless puppet again? Who's watching the watchers?
Nate is an aggregator with a model. Him, 538, and others like them are the ones that are literally watching the watchers. Silver is not a pollster, he’s someone that looks at other pollsters past performance and ranks / calculates how likely they are to be correct in current polls.
Harris tops Trump for the first time
I knew Trump was a bottom
of course he would be; you'd think he'd actually do work in bed?
excuse me now i'm gonna throw up.
Trump wears the diapers in the relationship
If it wasn't already obvious, the whole Stormy Daniels spanking him with a Forbes magazine confirmed it.
The last headline was about edging. I’m a bit worried about the election climax, but I am hoping for postcoital bliss.
Please never make me think about climaxing and Trump in the same context.
I've already filled a lawsuit for emotional damage.
Don't listen to polls, just vote.
Why do people on Lemmy hate polls so much? Who’s going out and saying “I’m not going to vote, we have polls instead”
I think we're all just scarred after 2016, because a lot of polling back then had Clinton beating Trump, and we know how that worked out.
I'm glad they listen to polls. With Harris we actually have a chance.
Counter argument. When the pollsters say it’s a dead heat, listen to them.
If don’t you want federal abortion bans and more handouts for billionaires, then you need to show up and bring your friends and family.
It’s going to come down to a handful of votes.
I tried to go vote but they told me to come back in three months. Maybe I'll have better luck tomorrow.
Vote early and vote often.
I worry some asshole is gonna see this comment and then Fox News will start talking about liberals on Lemmy coordinating efforts to vote multiple times.
That's the brilliant part though. The protections which prevent this kind of basic election fraud are simple and robust! It is virtually impossible to register multiple votes. If anything, attempts at voting "early and often" would simply illustrate the strength of the current election integrity framework.
I think I'll send in a few hundred copies of my ballot just to be on the safe side.
FrAuD!!!1
can i do both? i kinda like data
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4811646-harris-trump-election-forecast-nate-silver/