NO KIDDING YOU WORLD-DESTROYING MONEYHUNGRY COCKROACHES
this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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I remember saying a year ago when everybody was talking about the AI revolution: The AI revolution already happened. We've seen what it can do, and it won't expand much more.
Most people were shocked by that statement because it seemed like AI was just getting started. But here we are, a year later, and I still think it's true.
Those people were talking about the kind of AI we see in sci-fi, not the spellchecker-on-steroids we have today. There used to be a distinction, but marketing has muddied those waters. The sci-fi variety has been rebranded "AGI" so I guess the rest of that talk would go right along with it - the 'AGI singularity' and such.
All still theoretically possible, but I imagine climate will take us out or we'll find some clever new way to make ourselves extinct before real AI ...or AGI... becomes a thing.
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This is a start. It will be better.
Hey! This god damned steam engine keeps using up all our fucking water and coal. This shit is so inefficient and overhyped
It's like how steam powered cars were developed, but by the time they engineered out all the disadvantages like start to bring the car up to temperature half an hour before driving, the gasoline powered car was there leaving the steam car is the dust.
Not to mention the experiments with steam powered aircraft.
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In 2 interviews, the interviewees claim that the investors may lose faith in return of investment if "the killer application of AI" is not available in 18 months. In other words, if the AI is a bubble, my interpretation is that it will burst in only 18 months. EDIT: I am referring to the actual paper https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf?ref=404media.co
Financially? Yeah, AI is a bubble for sure. Gobs of money are being poured in with few results to show for it. That bubble will burst. But just like the dotcom bubble, that doesn't mean the technology is useless or won't change the world, just not instantly over night with a single investment, which is what the investment groups expect.
This technology requires finance. You can't train a model without millions of dollars.
If the money goes the technology is dead until the cost of the training machines comes down a few orders of magnitude.
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That seems like a fair assumption. I would argue we are at the peak of the bubble and only recently we've seen the suits (Goldman Sachs and more broadly analysts at banks) start asking questions about ROI and real use cases.
The final thought in the article was perfect. What is this all for? Nothing it seems in the end.
WDYM? The big corporations get a free pass to ignore their climate pledges and do the exact opposite.
Finally, the suits are catching up
AI was a promise more than anything. When ChatGPT came out, all the AI companies and startups promised exponential improvements that will chaaangeee the woooooorrlllddd
Two years later it's becoming insanely clear they hit a wall and there isn't going to be much change unless someone makes a miraculous discovery. All of that money was dumped in to just make bigger models that are 0.1% better than the last one. I'm honestly surprised the bubble hasn't popped yet, it's obvious we're going nowhere with this.
You should all see the story about the invention blue LEDs. No one believed that it could work except some japanese guy (Shuji Nakamura) who kept working on it despite his company telling him to stop. No one believed it could ever be solved despite being so close. He solved it and the rewards were astronomical.
This could very well be another case of being so close to a breakthrough. Two years since GPT-3 came out is nothing. If you were paying any sort of attention you would see there are promising papers coming out almost every week. It's clear there is a lot we don't know about training neural nets effectively. Our own brains are the proof of that.
I mean if you ignore all the papers that point out how dubious the gen AI benchmarks are, then it is very impressive.
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I don't think they were really trying, it was just an easy way to get funds no?
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@[email protected] @[email protected]
ai has been doing that trick since the 1950s. There have been a lot of use coming out of ai, but it has never been called ai once successful and never lived up to the early hype. some in the know about all those previous ones were surprised by the hype and not surprised about where it has gone, while others pushed the hype.
The details have changed but nothing else.
Yeah the only innovation here is that OpenAI had the balls to use the entire internet as a training set. The underlying algorithms aren't really new, and the limitations have been understood by data scientists, computer scientists, and mathematicians for a long time.
So now it just has to use every conversation that happens as a data set. They could use microphones from all over the world to listen and learn and understand better....
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Came here to say, we read last week that the industry spent $600bn on GPUs, they need that investment returned and we're getting AI whether it's useful or not... But that's also written in the article.
We know, you guys tried using the buzz around it to push down wages. You either got what you wanted and flipped tune, or realized you fell for another tech bro middle-manning unsolicited solutions into already working systems.
Never thought I'd agree with Goldman Sachs.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Provided it's an analog clock.
Goldman Sachs is overhyped and unreliable.
I do find the similarities between the function of AI and the function of a corporation to be quite interesting...
It’s all the bullshitting going on in both.
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Yeah... It's machine learning with a hype team.
There are some great applications, but they are very narrow
We taught linear algebra to talk real pretty.
Oh your a dirty eigenvector arnt you! I'm going to transpose you so hard they won't know you from a probability matrix!