Are polls trustworthy again? I thought it was too far out.
this post was submitted on 31 May 2024
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Not really, and there's often slight changes around news cycles that erase after a few weeks. Too early to say if this will actually stick.
They're enough to tell us that we're seeing a little bit of movement in response to Trump's guilty verdict, and that the election is close enough that it could easily go either way
So we will hold that same standard in a few days when fresh polling comes out showing Trump still beating Biden?
Polls are only good for confirmation bias.
It's trivial to game a poll via phrasing and user selection.
Here on lemmy, polls are only used as evidence if it confirms the poster's biases. Otherwise, they're waved off as unreliable.
In other words; 9 out of 10 Republicans are drunk on propaganda and cult shit that they can't look in a mirror and not see Trump.
Shit like this is why it's not worth your time trying to reason with someone who never used reason to get them into the same positions in life. They'll die fuming holding their Trump hats made in China before admitting they were wrong once.
What's their other option? They've put all their eggs into one basket and now have given him full control of the RNC so there's no chance for someone else to get in. Even if they dislike him, they'll still go to the polls for the down ballots and probably mark the straight ticket box if they have one. There's no way for them to save face. If they could find one testicle among them, they'd ditch him and throw Nikki back up. She would likely win and maybe be less bad than Trump - i don't think she'd try to stay in office forever. Best case now, she gets 25% write-in red vote and Biden wins big, but that seems unlikely.
Not voting, really.
Which is what this election is going to come down to- which candidate pissed off their base the least.
So far, Biden is losing that one. To be fair… trumps base are…. Special…
It'd take some work to bake this in so it doesn't just revert to the norm and it doesn't seem like Biden's team wants to do that work. I have a real hard time figuring out how political experts theoretically at the top of their field just thought this was an event that should be met with a lowkey response. Polls have been saying this would affect people's votes the whole time, they just need to exploit it rather than expect it to be self-evident to the voting population that this mattered.
The issue is that that’s who Biden and leading members of the democrats are. They do not, in my opinion, have the framework to deal with a political campaign being an existential threat.
Still too fucking close.
What the hell is wrong with people?
They're full on hateful, they will vote against their own self interest times a million if they think it will destroy "the Libs"
This is your reminder that national polling doesn't matter, and that you can win the presidency with roughly 20,000 votes
My rule of thumb is that Biden needs to be at about +4 after a likely voter screen to win.
There is a recursive aspect to polling, which is that 'electability' which polling performance is a part of, impacts polling.
I'm putting my called shot that by mid June when its time to run the numbers, I expect Trump to drop to a rage of about 35-40, probably coming in at a clean 37. I also expect Biden's polling to drop in that time period, from around 40 where he is now to maybe 38, 39.
The next two weeks might be the first time in the last 400 days were Trump lags Biden in overall polling.
Interestingly, this would also be in a period where both candidates are trending downward in overall polling numbers. Trumps numbers have been dropping consistently over the course of the trial, while Biden's has effectively abandoned the youth and progressive vote for (???).
Trump, at least as of last week, enjoyed a significantly higher approval rating than Biden; Biden's approval rating is still lower than any one-term president at this equivalent point in their presidency. In a sane world this would put Biden at a no-brainer, mortgage your house and put it all on "L" for Biden in the betting markets, but with Trump doing.. whatever this all is, its a race to the bottom in terms of who can be the least popular candidate(s) in electoral history.
Statisitcally, no candidate has won a second term with an approval rating as low as either Joe Biden or Donald Trump currently enjoys (although, the Trump comparison is a bit weird because of the three one term president that ever ran again, only Grover Cleveland was successful (only president to ever serve two non-consecutive terms).
Repubs get a +10 bonus for dirty tricks, so any Dem lovers better be out there hustling up some more votes.
Conservatives don't have an ideology, they have an identity. The in-group gets protected, and the out-grouo gets attacked. Anyone that was alive in 2016 and still supports Trump has latched onto Trump as the identity of the conservative party. Trump is good, and they are good by association. It's not that what he says is good, or what he wants is good. He is good, which means anything he wants must be good, and anything he says must be good. Anything to support him is good, and anything that is bad for Trump must be bad, because he is good.
So if Trump is convicted of a crime, it must be a set up, an evil plot, a conspiracy to frame him for something he definitely did because it was a good idea because it was his idea to do it.
I'm honestly surprised it's as high as 1 in 10. I suppose there might be that many liars among Trump supporters who were too embarrassed to admit to a pollster they still love him.
It's probably just people who aren't paying attention. You are correct in your analysis of the average trump supporter, but they are not a monolith. Some people can be swayed because they literally don't watch the news.