Technology

You skipped possibility 3, which is actively happening ing:

Advancements in tech enable us to produce results at a much much cheaper cost

Which us happening with diffusion style LLMs that simultaneously cost less to train, cost less to run, but also produce both faster abd better quality outputs.

That's a big part people forget about AI: it's a feedback loop of improvement as soon as you can start using AI to develop AI

And we are past that mark now, most developers have easy access to AI as a tool to improve their performance, and AI is made by... software developers

So you get this loop where as we make better and better AIs, we get better and better at making AIs with the AIs...

It's incredibly likely the new diffusion AI systems were built with AI assisting in the process, enabling them to make a whole new tech innovation much faster and easier.

We are now in the uptick of the singularity, and have been for about a year now.

Same goes for hardware, it's very likely now that mvidia has AI incorporating into their production process, using it for micro optimizations in its architectures and designs.

And then those same optimized gpus turn around and get used to train and run even better AIs...

In 5-10 years we will look back on 2024 as the start of a very wild ride.

Remember we are just now in the "computers that take up entire warehouses" step of the tech.

Remember that in the 80s, a "computer" cost a fortune, took tonnes of resources, multiple people to run it, took up an entire room, was slow as hell, and could only do basic stuff.

But now 40 years later they fit in our pockets and are (non hyoerbole) billions of times faster.

I think by 2035 we will be looking at AI as something mass produced for consumers to just go in their homes, you go to best buy and compare different AI boxes to pick which one you are gonna get for your home.

We are still at the stage of people in the 80s looking at computers and pondering "why would someone even need to use this, why would someone put one in their house, let alone their pocket"

This is how all tech innovation has gone. If you don't let the bosses exploit your labour someone else will.

If tech had unions this wouldn't happen as much, but that's why they don’t really exist.

I am indeed getting more time off for PD

We delivered on a project 2 weeks ahead of schedule so we were given raises, I got a promotion, and we were given 2 weeks to just do some chill PD at our own discretion as a reward. All paid on the clock.

Some companies are indeed pretty cool about it.

I was asked to give some demos and do some chats with folks to spread info on how we had such success, and they were pretty fond of my methodology.

At its core delivering faster does translate to getting bigger bonuses and kickbacks at my company, so yeah there's actual financial incentive for me to perform way better.

You also are ignoring the stress thing. If I can work 3x better, I can also just deliver in almost the same time, but spend all that freed up time instead focusing on quality, polishing the product up, documentation, double checking my work, testing, etc.

Instead of scraping past the deadline by the skin of our teeth, we hit the deadline with a week or 2 to spare and spent a buncha extra time going over everything with a fine tooth comb twice to make sure we didn't miss anything.

And instead of mad rushing 8 hours straight, it's just generally more casual. I can take it slower and do the same work but just in a less stressed out way. So I'm literally just physically working less hard, I feel happier, and overall my mood is way better, and I have way more energy.