This aged well /s
this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2024
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Like fine milk.
This was one of the last things I read before going to sleep. I thought it might be true.
Americans have made it clear that will never elect a woman. This election was a mandate against women
I doubt it's never (assuming we last much longer as a democracy). It's just not soon.
You can't spell President without P e n i s
Yea probably
That aged well
Like fine raw milk
kept outside in the sun with open lid
Half full of maggots
The fucking media!
Look at this.
These two posts are about the exact same data from the exact same source:
Notice the subtle difference?
Nat Silver left fivethirtyeight and took his model with him. So the other headline is a lie.
In 2016, Trump needed to win three states that were coin flips to win the race. With that, pollsters said he had a 1 in 8 chance. Trump took those coins, glued them together (the states had correlated outcomes) and then flipped the 3-coins-glued-together and got all three to land heads. So instead of a 1 in 8, it was a 1 in 2.
Every poll is a lie.
Vote!
Fuck the forecast and Vote!
This title was written by a moron specifically to appeal to morons.
“Suddenly”. Mainstream media is realizing they are at a risk of becoming irrelevant due to their blatant lies and disparity in their coverage for Kamala vs Trump.
Polls be dammed. If Kamala doesn't win a significant victory today, I'll be shocked and my faith in humanity will be shaken. Again.
The headline is misleading.
Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won in 50.015 percent of cases, while Trump won in 49.65 percent of cases, per Silver's model. Some 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.
So a better headline would be "Simulations show Harris and Trump are equally likely to win the election." The difference between them is insignificant.
And when you factor in all the underhand cheating tactics the Republicans have up their sleeve, the Democrats' tendency to cave, and the Supreme Court's bias, Trump looks a lot more likely to win than Harris.
So a better headline would be "Simulations show a high likelihood of political violence and another SCOTUS stolen election a la 2000".
50.015% literally means that neither candidate is favored to win. Take out a coin, assign Harris as heads and trump as tails, now flip the coin a bunch of times - and that's exactly how often Harris or trump is likely to win the election
EDIT
Nate Silver just posted his final pre-election blog post and he explains very clearly that this is a dead even race. Either candidate is just as likely to win as the other candidate.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined
I heard that Nate was also being critical of pollsters who were "herding" their results to not get caught too far on the wrong side, and yet he's doing it. I'm just going to watch the results come in and not worry about trying to predict the future that will be known soon enough.
The only good thing with all these "tied" poll reports is that it may encourage voting to break a perceived tie. So vote like it's tied, and hope for a blowout.
He's not doing anything. His model is setup many months before the election, and then it stays completely unchanged until the election is over. He doesn't do any polling, he just runs his pre-set simulation model on the data that the pollsters release
His model and 538s have both produced outcomes where one candidate gets 520+ EVs.
He assigns the quality ratings to polls himself and publicly announces them. They’re based on whether or not they predicted the outcome of the election.
It’s his very poll scoring system that causes polls to herd. Because even if they’re wrong, they’re wrong together.
He determines the weights of those polls and chooses how to apply them.
Nate has done plenty.
I wouldn’t be surprised if what we learn from this election is how it wasn’t really close at all, and all of the polls were extremely wrong.
I’m basing this on the fact that more newly registered voters are voting this election than in decades, and all of the polls only account for “likely voters“ based on their registration and party affiliation without taking into account all of the new voters. Most of the new voters are likely to vote Democratic.
Looks like basically every new voter was Republican
There have been a few articles on "herding" which I didn't even know about before this election. I am no pollster, but it sounds like there's a huge incentive to protect the reputation of the polling firm ("it's a draw, so we can't be wrong") vs reporting numbers they think might make news.
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