this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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(page 2) 35 comments
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[–] [email protected] 92 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (5 children)

This copium is off the charts ridiculous.

I don't want Trump to win, which is why I think it's incredibly unhelpful to spread the delusion that current polling is favorable to a Biden victory.

That wasn't even true before the debate, but at least there were enough polls within the margin of error that it was possible.

Biden's polling has only gone down since then, while Trump's have trended upwards. Not by the same margins, but still, opposite directions.

This article is actually arguing about changes in polls that are less than 0.5%, seriously, it's a joke...

Here is an aggregated page that links out to over 50 different polls for Georgia, one of the states mentioned in the article where Trump it's supposedly hurting, according to that article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-georgia.html

Here's that same aggregated polling information for the other two states mentioned in the article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-michigan.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-north-carolina.html

Take a look and tell me if that article, much less it's headline, have any bearing on reality.

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[–] [email protected] 50 points 3 months ago (19 children)

A friend of mine has right-wing parents who were Trump boosters in 2016. He says that January 6th left them aghast, and they aren't supporting him now. That's just two people sure, and this is entirely anecdotal, but it might be indicative of how the wind is blowing.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think trump needs to address his electability questions. He hasn't had any interviews that properly address his issues, just scripted ones with interviewers that like him.

Just today I've seen people calling for him to step down so another candidate without his issues can be nominated. He'll have to do that if voters continue to lose confidence in him.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago

You forgot the /s

[–] [email protected] 23 points 3 months ago

30% of the people voting in the GOP primary said they wouldn’t necessarily vote for the eventual nominee.

That is a massive and highly unusual number. And, just like so many other things, nobody fuckin knows that, because the media has a code of silence about it like a JV hockey team that just doesn’t talk about Logan’s sex crimes.

They just keep reporting polls of all registered voters who want to answer the phone, trying to correct their ratios and not bothering to try to ascertain who’s likely to vote, and then swearing that 2 point up or down differences in the resulting number are super important.

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[–] [email protected] 22 points 3 months ago

Newsweek, bad selection of polls, and results are still not looking great. For goodness sake, can we please ban this news source? It's awful and repeatedly clickbait-y.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

in Georgia, he has increased his share of the vote by 0.9 percent since the debate, though the Republican Party is still ahead by 3.5 percent.

In Michigan, he has increased his vote share by 0.8 percent making him ahead of Trump by 0.4 percent, and in North Carolina he has also increased his vote share by 0.8 percent, though the Republicans are still ahead by 4 percent.

It feels like the difference is within the margin of error, but I have no clue since they didn’t cite the new poll or the old poll they are comparing it to.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

I just can’t believe in any poll that uses landline telephones or any telephones really. Because, who answers an unknown call?

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Old conservatives do. All these polls have samples that are biased against young people and mobile phones. Error bounds have increased as smart phones increased their adoption.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago
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[–] [email protected] 135 points 3 months ago (3 children)

It's pushing us into extremely weird territory to have two candidates this unpopular.

[–] [email protected] 37 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (4 children)

There’s no pushing. We were already in extremely weird territory when the news media can present the candidates so dishonestly that Biden is at all unpopular.

He forgave hundreds of billions of dollars in students loans, reduced income inequality for the first time in god knows how long, increased working class wages even when adjusted for historically massive inflation, raised corporate tax by a MASSIVE amount in order to fund all of the above, and also spent a trillion dollars on trying to address climate change, like the first time ever that a US presidency actually tried to do something about it in a big way, which is way too little way too late but that’s not his fault.

His opponent is a literal pants shitting moron who goes on weird tirades about toilets and windmills; even the truest of true believers often walk out of his speeches before they are finished, because they are unhinged and random and, at the end of the day, uninteresting. His campaign priorities are cartoonishly evil. Beyond cartoonish. They sound like a joke. He wants to kill foreigners, throw his political opponents in prison, and make friends with our nation’s worst enemies siding with them against American soldiers and American people. He wants to ban contraception and porn, and dismantle the Department of Education and the FDA. And the FBI. And NOAA.

And yet, somehow, the news manages to present such a distorted landscape that “Biden is very old and shit the bed at the debate” is like the most relevant thing everyone is trying to talk about, even now, a month later, when it is objectively undeniable that the great mass of the Democratic electorate doesn’t give a shit about it and cares more about all that earlier stuff. As well they should. They are, surprisingly enough, not as stupid as you and the news keep consistently, relentlessly, dishonestly, pretending that they are.

I won’t say that distorted media creation won’t succeed, and get Trump elected, against whoever his opponent turns out to be. But yes, it will be extremely weird (as well as absolutely infuriating for those of us who live in America and have to experience what might happen under a second Trump presidency) how we got here and what destination we’ve arrived at.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 3 months ago (1 children)

You forgot the part where he literally raped children and argued after the fact about who deserved to claim one of their virginities.

Allegedly.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

Dude it is IMPOSSIBLE to list bad things Trump did without missing some huge ones

Hey did you know his estranged ex-wife died by falling down the stairs, and she’s buried on his property?

I’m not saying that automatically definitively means anything. But tell me one other human being on the planet who that combination of circumstances ever happened to.

Or, alternately, one other human being who was once involved with Trump for which he gives any kind of a shit any which way about where they should be buried.

I’ll wait.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago (2 children)

and she’s buried on his property?

Wasn't there some speculation about tax codes and cemeteries?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Crimeception

As with so many Trump things, the overlapping crimes, for whatever weird reason, actually make it more difficult to prosecute any single one.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 months ago

I always thought of his administration as DDOSing the justice system.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 3 months ago

If it weren’t for the political realities of how voting works under first-past-the-post, the progressive wing of the Democratic party could have easily split off into a separate party whose younger leadership and willingness to push for actually-meaningful change could probably have run circles around the Dems at this point.

...Man, I really wish I could vote for a presidential candidate that I actually believed in, instead of this "vote for the status-quo neoliberal or democracy dies" bullshit.

[–] [email protected] 181 points 3 months ago (4 children)

The difference is Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty while trumps is due to EXTREME certainty that he’s a piece of garbage

[–] [email protected] 126 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty

Which I don't understand. I'm certain Biden won't institute project 2025 so the choice should be obvious.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Uncertainty my ass. Joe Biden is running on an excellent record. He is running on his policies.

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[–] [email protected] 53 points 3 months ago (4 children)

Worst case scenario for Biden is he's mostly absent and his cabinet has to guide him through policies making the Democratic party mostly in control.

Which is pretty much exactly what Trump's first term was adding in a lot of grift and pointless spite.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 months ago

And while there are exceptions (looking at you Garland), most of Biden's team are pretty solid. For example, I would keep Lena Khan exactly where she is regardless of which Democrat is in charge. He's got a lot more young smart staff than he gets credit for.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

If you narrow your scope to just the presidency maybe. The real worst case scenario is he completely fails to run an effective campaign and creates a huge red wave sweeping a big group of fascists into power.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

He doesn't need a wave of them. He just needs to let this one in and it's all over.

Again, though, see how successful humphries was in 68. Don't change horses.

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[–] [email protected] 52 points 3 months ago

For real. Also I doubt Biden will try to start a coup to stay in power

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 3 months ago (3 children)

There's nothing uncertain about Biden at this point. It's a matter of being in denial or anger.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Sir. You seem to have forgotten about inconsolable hopelessness.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think they call that acceptance.

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think what they're getting at is that we're uncertain the extent age will affect his duties. Will his cabinet and other advisors be really "in control," or will Biden insist on his way forcing others to kowtow. It is certain that the dude is old as hell and if it were he alone, he would be incapable of the job. Since there's a staff and a ton of advisors, the degree of control they have is, well, uncertain.

[–] [email protected] -3 points 3 months ago (3 children)

It's already clear that the extent is large and growing, whether it's dementia or Parkinson's doesn't really matter. He's effectively a puppet now, and it's not going to get better. He has minor slip ups in the completely controlled environment they try to keep him in. It's denial to pretend it won't get worse, or it's not actually that bad.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:


The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face the incumbent president in November, and polls have so far predicted that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight—with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.

However, in three swing states there are signs that Biden has marginally increased his support since participating in the first presidential debate, despite giving what was seen as a poor performance.

During the debate, Biden gave a series of incoherent and confusing responses and appeared to trail off at times without finishing his sentences.

He has since received calls from within his party to end his reelection bid and allow Democrats to install a new candidate for the general election.

Surveys like these are significant due to the Electoral College system, which awards each state a certain number of votes based on population.

But Trump only won there by 1.3 percent of the vote in 2020—his narrowest state win—and North Carolina often elects Democratic governors.


The original article contains 452 words, the summary contains 171 words. Saved 62%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

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