this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025

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255

How are Americans preparing for the Trumpist supply shock? (lemmy.world)

submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

159 comments fedilink hide all child comments

From what I'm reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, ... Are any shortages noticeable yet?

ETA:

Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus

Businesses have been filling their inventories. That's ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn't prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

I think shortages will be short-lived as companies and retailers just have to suck it up and pay more. People won't be able to buy as much stuff, so layoffs and a recession or depression are likely, but there's not much I can think of doing to prepare for that.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

But they don't have to suck it up, not really. They can just stop buying entire classes of items. The question is what Americans will now live without.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 hours ago

Food and housing are the only classes many have left.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

Remember when COVID supply-chain difficulties made prices shoot up? And several years after that situation peaked prices STILL haven't gone back to normal? This gonna be like that except COMPLETELY unnecessary, brought to you entirely by MAGA. Remember it when the midterm elections come up in 2 years. That won't be difficult cuz it will still be going on and will be even worse.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

Well some products will go down at first, the ones they can't sell to other countries any more the supply will skyrocket until they cut production to reduce their losses. So perishable things like certain food, will possibly decrease for a season, then will go up higher/possibly "sky rocker" as when you produce less your profits are lower, so they will have to mark them up / some people will just stop farming. The possibility of the bees dying out seems more worrisome than the tarrifs long term though for many foods.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 hours ago (2 children)

I work retail and we've had an onslaught of freight. Until there is ever a day when I come into work and I'm told or I see that there is nothing to stock - I'll be concerned. Until then, what is there to prepare for?

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

Um, prepare for a lack of ... anything imported. Or don't! It's your life.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

we’ve had an onslaught of freight

IDK how long it takes from the ports to you, but that should end in a few days. Keep us updated!

[–] [email protected] 4 points 13 hours ago

Not yet here. Maybe a few more weeks?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

Canadian here... I'm preparing by buying puts on SPY

[–] [email protected] 3 points 16 hours ago

Hehe same

[–] [email protected] 12 points 23 hours ago

Curling up into the fetal position and crying in between protests.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago (2 children)

OP’s data shows the U.S. is stocking up tremendously in April, and then maintaining year-on-year patterns after that with a slight downturn that doesn’t even compensate for April’s glut.

I haven’t seen this data before but it shows the opposite of the shortage I was expecting.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

You seem to be misreading that.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

Please correct me, then. The surprising moment came when I noticed the vertical axis is for year-on-year change and not raw tonnage.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

Yes. It goes from much higher than last year to much lower.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 21 hours ago (2 children)

My read was that it was much higher to prepare inventory for the tariff shock

[–] [email protected] 3 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

I think the issue is you're waiting for the negatives to be equal to the surplus of one month, when the trend (from three points of data so do with that what you will) is negative. So, ostensibly, after enough months of negatives, there will be much, much more negative than positives.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (1 children)

Yup that’s exactly what I was doing, and I was surprised that the negatives won’t catch up until at least 3 months which brings us to July at the earliest.

Edit: Thanks General I didn’t notice it’s in weeks. So we’re looking at early June which is closer to what we were all thinking.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 hours ago

The chart shows weeks, not months.
It shows scheduled arrivals of vessels in LA. It may not be safe to equate that to freight arriving in the US.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 20 hours ago

Yes, and then, or rather now, incoming shipping collapses.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

May still be a few weeks more before it's critical then.

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