For discussion of contingency planning and non-violent resistance to the sudden emergent imperialism. See also: [email protected] [email protected]
its not going to happen, the oligarchy is shorting the fuck out of canadian and american stocks right now. the uncertainty of war is extremely profitable right now. they need our resources, cheap, and intact, so private corpos can pick them up for a song. a war between us would effect their bottom line, but the thought of a potential war is very profitable if you know where to throw your wad.
its a big, sad, show.
You and many people say similar things but you're all overlooking the simple fact that we are allied to Greenland. They have not ruled out military invasion of Greenland and have just recently doubles down on the rhetoric. What do you think will happen when Greenland / the Danish government invoke NATO allies to come to their defence? We will be at war with the US but it won't be them declaring war on us it will be us declaring war on them in rightful defence of our allies. Then they will have "full justification" to invade us back. They won't ever be justified to be clear but it will be the perfect excuse to sell to their public and armed forces.
i also doubt that will happen as well, there will be lots of threats a grand standing but when push comes to shove they likely wont pull the trigger on boots on the ground military invasion. maybe some ships off the coast, but then as you say NATO gets involved and they come to a "deal" that makes trump look like a god to his followers and more of an asshole to the rest of us. all the while private corpos will use the chaos to secure things like mining rights and all forms of other government, public, and private contracts for a fraction of the cost, whether its out in the open or through shell corps. as they have been doing through this whole presidency so far. as well as during his last presidency.
the longevity of consistent profit relies on a stable, cheap work force and working infrastructure, supply lines, etc. bombing and killing people in the area doesnt necessarily provide a smooth work flow and delivery of product and profits, especially in the timeline they desire. for example in the US the thousands of unemployed government employees are likely to switch careers, and their desperation will make them sell their labour at a lower cost out of fear of homelessness, some may go to prison for various situational reasons, some might get sick or already be sick and will take on debt for medical and pharma care. it will also lead to privatised alternatives of those same government programs (which is....not good). all of which are pofitable to private interests in league with trump. thats just an example of how they may think things will work in their favour in america alone. however they want to control of other countries in somewhat similar ways through fear and uncertainty.
trumps already backed down from imposing tariffs several times, he makes grand threats and plans but delivers shadow versions and concessions instead, the wall isnt built, the ukraine war isnt over, the price of groceries have sky rocketed. he wants people to take him seriously and to be scared of him (or in a strange way, love him) because fear is an excellent negotiation tactic. its essentially opposite day every time he speaks.
he will threaten and demand things constantly, but when it comes down to it, he knows he wouldnt live long or stay in power if he declares WW3 himself (even if he declares martial law) over some mines in greenland, ukraine, or canada. which is why he brought zelensky on air to shift the blame if it ever really comes down to it. its why he also moves the goal post for his schemes constantly. or back tracks, blames others, spins, or flat out denies his failures. or celebrates superficial declarations like the gulf of "america" and new holidays, or whatever he thinks will appease his followers and bilster his image of "dominance"
hes not operating as a leader of a country, but an agent of the rich and foreign interests. they want controlled chaos, not full blown destruction. maybe in some "shit hole countries" as hes said before. those arent really people to them. however greenland, as easy as it may seem to just swoop in and take it all, it would never hold, not with the allies, and they know this.
im not saying we shouldnt act accordingly and make preparations, however even our preparations rely on american companies like lockheed martin, boeing, and all other kinds of private military tech companies to some degree. or they even push us into purchasing weapons from some "trump aligned" weapons companies the world over. the rich operate on a different level of governance over the worlds governments (at least they think or wish they do) and so they tend to create conditions which are profitable for themselves or others they have dealings with.
he is an agent creating demand and potential for discounts for his rich buddies and owners, but they cant milk the cow if its dead. they will toe the line for as long as they possibly can. you make (or lose) the most money, very quickly in a volatile market, but if you can rig the game, you stand to make a shit load of money. and this administration is just a smash and grab for profits, assets, cheap labour and contracts.
if i am wrong, well, shit, that really sucks. but i also know that shorting exists, and headlines make massive profits if you know where to place your bets before and after, especially if you make those headlines yourself.
this is the main reason why im skeptical of military invasion of an ally. but i guess we'll see.
The only reply I really have is. This is Trump we’re talking about. I do want to recognize that every time people have said greater interests and logic will prevail they haven’t. Not when it comes to him. They certainly didn’t for Putin with Ukraine. And if rumours are to be believed Trump is on his side or even following his playbook / guidance.
I’ve always been a bit do a realist and a hope for the best expect/prepare for the worst kind of person. I don’t think what I’m saying is a stretch and I dearly wish to be proven wrong.
im not going to disagree with any of that, thats all coming from a place of well founded beliefs.
however, i find the truth is usually always somewhere in the middle. and i share the same worries, and prepared mindset. but im not letting them win by succumbing to fear entirely.
if they are truly serious, and want to come to my country and hurt people. ill be sure to do my best to hurt them in return, alongside my countrymen. perhaps even dying in the process. if thats what it comes down to, im happy to go out that way. death isnt something to be feared in my opinion. if anything its a release from all pain and worries, but i would miss things, if i had the sense to after death. like eating ice cream, coffee, laughing with my friends and family, or making love to my wife.
but im also still planning to take a cross country road trip this year, and do some camping and fishing, learn how to cook some new recipes. workout, have fun. and enjoy life as if its not a potential reality thats destined to come to pass. because it wont happen till it happens. IF it happens.
i could wake up to a mushroom cloud in my window tomorrow morning, or a spring breeze and the birds singing. on one hand i could die, on the other hand i could just wake up and make a nice breakfast for my wife, and enjoy a nice espresso from an overpriced machine like i do every other day.
reserve some practical space in your mind to worry and prepare, but dont let it consume you. ive lived through many "world ending events" and im still here. we all are.
we'll get through whatever comes next. and if for some reason we dont... well, it was a pleasure living at the same moment in history with you, and all the other fine folk who also shared and experienced the unprecedented times together.
I appreciate the nihilistic positivity I really do. I’m a disabled person who relies on medication to help me live. If war breaks out I’m especially vulnerable and can’t exactly fight. I am worried but mostly just frustrated that I haven’t seen anyone even really mention what I’ve brought up. I feel it’s important to acknowledge these possibilities so we aren’t caught unprepared. I’m doing my best to keep living my life without being consumed by it. I’m glad you’re seeing it the way you are.
Canada needs nukes.
Saskatchewan is the 2nd largest source of uranium after Kazakhstan, and building a medium range missile or even short range is well within the Canadian industrial base.
Otherwise the Canadian Army is 47k strong, which is less than the number of bodies at JB Lewis-McCord just south of Seattle. Ditto for the US Army's 10 Mountain Division, which is in upstate NY and is a short drive to Ottawa or Montreal. Literally 2-3 hours drive to controlling most major Canadian cities -- only Edmonton would get a reprieve.
Traffic on major highways would be a larger impediment to the US Military than Canadian military resistance. No nukes, no Canada.
And what exactly would our nukes do, when the US has, what, 6 or 7,000 missiles, often with multiple warheads each?
And when the Americans can no doubt pinpoint the location of any nuke that we might possess and take it out with ease, if they ever actually decided to attack us?
Our resistance would have to be far more grassroots, and require courage and commitment from all of us, possibly with a very high cost.
If (and that is a huuuuuge "if") the US invades, I'm going to go all Ukranian on their ass and drone them, or something similar. Low tech cheap pot shots at them. Maybe take some lessons from Afghanistan while we're at it.
Add insult to injury and throw eggs at them
If they try we’ll set our reactors for meltdown and irradiate the Great Lakes. We all die. :)
Just looking in on X today (yes, it's a toxic dump, but also where to look to see what the MAGA movement is publicly astroturfing), and I see #AlbertaSeparation and #CarneyWinsSecessionBegins are trending.
I think this is plausibly part of the plan. There are secessionist fringe groups in Alberta that are on-board with MAGA and will collaborate in a secessionist movement, and that movement is likely to get serious right after the federal elections. It will begin with an astroturfed move to deny the legitimacy of the election and to push for Alberta to separate. Saskatchewan will likely be targeted in the same way.
The supporters will be fringe, but it will be pushed by American media like Fox, by X, by the Trump admin, and maybe by Danielle Smith. The goal will be to weaken and divide Canada. Maybe that leads to little green men crossing the border with support of local secessionist groups in future, once enough division has been fostered.
its an incredibly small number of albertans who think that way, its mainly bots pushing those "trends"
albertans wouldnt allow it.
If Alberta decides to collaborate with a hostile invader, I would hope that the blue states would flip the script on them
No. Americans are fat, lazy, and stupid but they’re not going to lose sons and daughters to invade Canada. Not militarily. Maybe for, like, a music festival or something.
The demented rapist’s chattering hamberder hole isn’t a legitimate source of information.
Don’t downplay the danger.
The US has the largest military in the world. If enough trump-loving generals are on board, military members will either obey, or face dishonorable discharge, and/or worse.
If the military invades Canada, you’ve got a shitload of guerrillas “behind enemy lines” for you. And I think the line would be sufficiently crossed to open fire on those who can’t bear to respect the sovereignty of our neighbors.
Which is to say, it seems just a grotesque combover hair above impossible. But, if these fascists try it - it’s going to be absolute bedlam down here.
If I were Canada or Greenland, I would really start arming and training up militias.
Yeah, it's a sobering thought, but better be prepared.
I hope we get our shit rocked by the world tbh, the US has been in charge for too long and we need to be taken down a peg.
So, ah, here's the problem...
The US is basically in pay-to-win mode. The US military is potentially competition for the entire rest of the world.
I don't think the current military leadership would support full-on conquest, but Trump hasn't purged the Pentagon yet.
Military might alone won't be enough for the US to go unscathed here. The American people may also, at some point, may actually start to feel sufficient shame to take action.
Military might alone won't be enough for the US to go unscathed here.
Oh absolutely, 100%. It will be very bad at the beginning, but if the US does go aggressive then the rest of the world will defend itself. And if Trump removes competent leadership to install cronies with delusions of American exceptionalism then the current strength will be lost earlier.
The American people may also, at some point, may actually start to feel sufficient shame to take action.
I have less and less hope for this, and there's also the problem of what action to take...
saw a singular drone take out a russian warship a while back. i imagine we can accomplish something similar if we wanted.
You have to understand, the point is not really about the ships but about what the capacity to operate that number of ships tells you about the support structure behind them. The US Navy is primarily a logistics system which moves manpower, equipment, material, food and waste around. All of the other functions of the military are peripherals attached to logistics. The US Army is probably the next most developed logistics system - only about 10% of the army is actually combat troops, the rest all provide various support functions.
So ultimately, running a dozen aircraft carriers is an exponential problem in logistics. Being able to sustain that tells you a lot about how much operational capacity there is in the military force.
that is true, however we are also assuming that an extremely controversial war against any ally wouldnt end up in loss of functionality by an ideologically split military who swore an oath to protect the same people they now attack, or a destructive civil war, or plain ol desertion. a war like this would bring enemies to shores of the US from all sides. if they attacked an ally directly, the shit storm that would follow directly behind it by NATO and the rest of the world would cripple the US military, from outside as well as within.
then theres also the potential for MAD from nukes provided by france among other countries. which recently showed up on the halifax shoreline as a direct demonstration of what could happen if they pull this shit.
theres a reason why they are attacking us economically and taking their time preparing the minds of the world through propaganda. they know a full blown military invasion of any ally would end in disaster for them. the sanctions alone would collapse the US into chaos from civil disobediance, it might already just happen on its own once the fallout from DOGEs cuts start showing up on everyones front lawn.
their dollar is going to crash, their purchasing power will shrink, it will become the wild west once again. and theres no controlling that level of chaos. heads will roll.
it would be a death sentence for anyone at the helm of that sinking ship, it probably already is.
Death, uh... Finds a way
Japan had a formidable navy as well. But overconfidence lead to them losing at midway and ultimately their downfall.
Yeah I know, it's upsetting, and scary.
I am so ashamed about what the US has become.
I am rooting for my own country to fall like the Roman Empire.
Everything that I was taught about america, opportunity, hard work… it was all a lie.