this post was submitted on 24 Mar 2025
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80
Mainstreet polling, updated Mar 24 (lemmy.ca)
submitted 1 day ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
31 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 
Party Seats % Change in Seats Majority Probability Minority Probability
Liberal 192 44.4% +39 93.2% 6.3%
Conservative 118 37.8% -1 0.1% 4.1%
Bloc 26 6.3% -7 0% 0%
New Democrat 6 6.7% -19 N/A N/A
Green 1 1.4% -1 N/A N/A
People's 0 2.7% -2.2% N/A N/A
top 31 comments
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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

i am glad to see the drop in support of PP, but at the same time it is still scary that they are still polling 37% at this point.
how much bad things need to happen in order for Conservative voter to SEE it!! only -1 seat?? com'on. can we tell them that Trump is so gonna make fun of us with a PM called "PP"..

on the other hand, sad to see NDP is dropping.. i was hoping they will pull up too.. but man .. -19 is huge! I was really hoping NDP will pull up and pass Bloc at least..

let's hope the trend will get better in the coming 30 days or so.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago

Glad to see the conservatives fall, sad to see the NDP drop.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Anyone have some free time over the next couple of weekends? Somebody needs to take over and rebuild the Green Party of Canada.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

Elizabeth May, is that you?

It would help if they had any science in their platform. A "green" party that is anti-nuclear might as well be pro-global-warming.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

I'm pretty sure they dropped their anti-nuclear stance.

But this election is about Canadian sovereignty. Unfortunately, smaller parties will be pushed out for now so that sovereignty can be protected. Once we keep the country and take steps to diversify away from the US, and the CPC kicks out the crazies, we can boot the Liberals and maybe the other small parties (left and right) will be inclined to work together on something groundbreaking, like electoral reform.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

Yup, let's not pull a Germany.

[–] [email protected] 43 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (4 children)

The long term warning is that if the LPC wins a majority and fails to reasonably address housing or general living costs we'll be back in this same position next cycle.

My hope is for a minority LPC government with either BQ or NDP forcing them away from neoliberalism - if that fails it's a long shot that Carney will turn his back on neoliberal economics... but Canada (and the world really) are at the breaking point from neoliberalism and we'll either gracefully correct or fall closer to authoritarianism and violence.

We need change - and we only have so many chances before a fucker like PP wins an election based on economic discontent and fucks us forever.

Edit: Just to be super clear - fuck the conservatives. I in no way desire them to end up in government and my statement comes from a place of rejecting anti-trans hate and embracing a sane environmental response to climate change.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

That's true.

Unfortunately we have no real ability to microtarget the result between a minority and majority. With FPTP small changes in the popular vote in the 35-40% range produce drastic changes in seat numbers.

A possible side effect from a massive Liberal majority would be that the CPC is likely to split like it did in the past with Reform splitting from the PCs. In such a scenario, the next election would have a lot more room for a renewed NDP or something else to take votes from the LPC because the CPC won't automatically win due to vote split.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 day ago

Yep, this is where I am too.

I'm annoyed at having to vote Liberal, to be honest, but I hope this election makes it clear that cozying up to American populists is a losing strategy in Canada.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago (3 children)

I would have to think if the polls are right and the liberals manage to win a majority, the conservatives would have to do some real soul searching.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 day ago

Conservatives would rather abandon democracy than conservatism

[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 day ago

They'll just get angrier and play dirtier. That will be the result of their soul searching.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I'd love it if the Conservatives fielded a moderate, Joe Clark-style candidate. I'd be able to go through an election cycle without losing sleep for once.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I heard Christy Clarke is looking for work - she's essentially a moderate conservative.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago

The problem is that she would first have to win the party leadership. And the party nomination process has been hijacked by the fundies who don't want a moderate.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Maybe we'll get lucky and Carney will finally have enough government and provincial support to drop FPTP on federal elections.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Trudeau had that and did fuck all. We all need to spend the next 4 years actively hounding our MPs about this.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

I like where your heads at but we really need to hound them for the next two months.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

I've yet to see any news of him openly supporting PR outside of a PR friendly minister - did I miss an announcement?

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I'm so glad to see this. pp is such a disgusting weasel who would sell us out for his own gain. Danielle Smith, Premiere of Alberta, said this about him:

“So I would think that there’d be, there’s probably still always going to be areas that are skirmishes or disputes about particular industries when it comes to the border, but I would say, on balance, the perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think…the new direction in America,” she added. “And I think we’d have a really great relationship for the period of time they’re both in.”

Emphasis mine.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Wow. What a stunning collapse of support for PP! This poll puts the Libs chances of winning at 99.5% vs. 4.2% for the Cons. Even this polling average has their chances at 78% and still trending upward. Just polling/keep pushing (etc) but this seems like it's Carney's to lose at this point.

Really sucks that the NDP is at risk of losing official party status though.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

Well maybe they won't stick with a dog shit leader next time. Honestly, they need better leadership in that party. Other than Charlie Angus, who in that party has any credibility? I don't even know anybody else in that party federally.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago (2 children)

People have given up on NDP. Wow.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Sorry to call you out like this, but what a ridiculous interpretation. That is absolutely not what is happening. This is purely an artifact of FPTP being a useless system.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

That's a significant factor but Jagmeet being a lib-light is also a contributor. He has to go. We need someone with bold, populist, unashamedly left ideas.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I think it's more about this moment than people giving up on the NDP long term. It's probably more ABC than anti-NDP. Many see PP as a threat to the country, or least much less able to address the current crisis, so they're aligning with the best chance to defeat him.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It's ABC, but it's also the result of Singh. NDP was neck and neck with Liberals when the Liberals were polling poorly, which could've been the NDP's chance. If Singh still doesn't get replaced after this election, I don't think the NDP is going to fare well.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

I'd be surprised if Singh stayed on if they do actually lose official party status. Realistically though, they were close when the Libs were facing an historic, crushing loss. They were never anywhere near a position to form government based on polling.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

Wow rip ndp

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Carney was born of humble beginnings, is an exceptional academic, knows how to create strong partnerships with like-minded countries, can be strong and assertive while remaining diplomatic and has a good track record for being competent and effective.

He's like the polar opposite of Trump and it is why people flocked to him. People are now disgusted by Trump and anything that resembles him (PP).

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

It seems possible to avoid PP. Keep pushing.

h/t: https://lemmy.ca/post/41156019