| Party | Seats | % | Change in Seats | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 192 | 44.4% | +39 | 93.2% | 6.3% |
| Conservative | 118 | 37.8% | -1 | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| Bloc | 26 | 6.3% | -7 | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | 6.7% | -19 | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | 1.4% | -1 | N/A | N/A |
| People's | 0 | 2.7% | -2.2% | N/A | N/A |
this post was submitted on 24 Mar 2025
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That's true.
Unfortunately we have no real ability to microtarget the result between a minority and majority. With FPTP small changes in the popular vote in the 35-40% range produce drastic changes in seat numbers.
A possible side effect from a massive Liberal majority would be that the CPC is likely to split like it did in the past with Reform splitting from the PCs. In such a scenario, the next election would have a lot more room for a renewed NDP or something else to take votes from the LPC because the CPC won't automatically win due to vote split.