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this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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There are not enough ICE officers to conduct mass deportation in red states, let alone blue ones. Trump will require cooperation of local police.
If he uses the military in Blue states, it's an obvious attack on the 10th Amendment. It's also illegal to use the military for domestic police work.
We can bet on incompetence for now. Trump needs to grow ICE to a large size before he's even able to conduct a large scale deportation plan of any kind. Deploying the National Guard would be a faux pas, but that's probably the workaround else need to prepare for legally.
I'm sure they can put a call out to anyone with a gun and a hatred of immigrants (legal or otherwise) to volunteer to help out. Maybe they can even all have matching bands around their arm so they know who are helping.
Yeah that's called a US Army Private.
What you're ignoring is how fucking dumb an 18Y Old with a gun is. There's a fucking reason we don't use them in US Territories. When the bloodshed starts, it will be because dumbass high-school dropouts opened fire in an American neighborhood.
What you're also ignoring is that US Army commanders know this. They know how dumb their recruits are. Its the job of the commander to make sure the troop under them are put on missions where they have the correct and proper training. A "serious" Army Commander would refuse any immigration / customs job, because US Military troops are simply NOT trained for this. US Military are trained to kill people and should only be used to kill people. That's why we focus on using them outside of the USA.
Like, seriously. Do you expect a 18Y old high school dropout to handle a warrant over a house correctly?
I don't know what's worse, the dumb kids tricked into joining the army, or the dumb kids that even the army rejected after giving them weapons training so they joined the police force instead.
Stoking a violent insurrection while plotting a coup violated a few laws and norms, too.
A couple federal judges have opined that he can declare an invasion on US land. This unlocks a lot of powers for him if they interpret the laws in their favor.
You say that. But the minute people's private homes get invaded by US Troops, US citizen's opinions will immediately change.
Republicans are strongly pro-4th Amendment and are distrustful of the police as well. Getting wrapped up in police raids just because you live in the wrong neighborhood will piss off a LOT of Republicans. And a mass program that forces citizens to ICE / Police / Military into your house (be it a massive push for warrants, or some other mass-scale law) would be a significant number of breaks with the Constitution.
Remember: the Republicans are "Deep State" fuckers who distrust federal officials. Do you really think they'd be cool with orders that let police into their private homes?
Doesn’t matter. A fascist at the head of government, whose party is in line behind him, controlling all branches of the federal government, having enough military support, can shush as many opinions as he wants.
He’s already demonstrated over and over that he will do whatever he wants, and dare anyone to stop him. To date, not only has nobody stopped him, or applied a single real consequence, the electorate has seen fit to increase his power.
Republicans used to be strongly opposed to Russia, too, how’s that working out?
The military is incredibly weak when it comes to domestic matters. Without police training, they will be incompetent.
There's a reason why part of Hitler's rise required the rise of the SS, a separate branch of the military AND police that was loyal to Nazism and Hitler alone.
What Trump is going to do next is cut off the heads of our Military and try to bring them under his control. What will actually happen is that US Military will become incredibly weak, as leaders are the experts in navigating the bureaucracy and actually getting things done. Installing dumbass loyalists at the top won't do much, and I'm not convinced that there's enough competent leaders in Trump's circles to actually do everything he wants to do.
They don't necessarily need to be competent. They only need to be loyally fascist and willing to deliver criminal orders. Firepower "trumps" competency in a whole lot of short-term scenarios. Beyond that, they only need a sufficient number of servicepeople to execute those orders. Even if most servicepeople refuse to obey, the US military is such a massive organization that there will be more than enough who do.
A best case scenario is one where one part of the US military stands up with force against the other part, and the fascists lose, followed by a military coup.
Incompetence means they won't be able to get anything done at all. Which leads to the rise of SS or other loyalist police groups (in the case of Putin: KGB/FSB).
You're ignoring a huge part of what makes fascism actually work. The ability for orders to be carried out at all.
Secondly, its not military powers that allowed SS to help Hitler or KGB/FSB to help Putin. Its police powers that let them do that. And Donald Trump has royally fucked his reputation with the FBI, the closest thing to a proper police agency.
I'd keep an eye to see if Trump can successfully take over FBI, because that's where the worst-case scenario lies. But FBI lost their headquarters back in 2016 because Trump fucked them over, and Trump still hates them because of Jack Smith's most recent investigation. So I'm betting on incompetence here.
Force means jack shit. Police powers are the powers to launch investigators and build intelligence. Knowing who and how and why to arrest people is the power of the Police. And a corrupt police is the most dangerous.
Military? They can shoot but they don't know what to do after that. There are Military Police units, but they're too small for any real action. Its FBI and other police agencies that have the real power that you're talking about.
It's not an on/off switch. Of course the military will be less efficient and more error-prone; that doesn't mean they wouldn't be able to do anything.
Need to put down a big protest in St Louis? Send in troops with live rounds, none of that less lethal bullshit. Maybe it takes a couple days longer to get them there, maybe there aren't quite as many boots on the ground as you wanted, maybe they get deployed in kind of dumb ways.
They're still far better armed, far more cohesive, and far more replenishable than the protesters they seek to trample. The military would still win, they don't have to be perfect, they just have to be better enough than their opponent.
Now imagine if the opponent isn't "protesters," but "these brown people we've conditioned you to feel animosity towards, and they're iLlEgAlS!" Those brown people aren't even loosely organized into a protest, and as long as the troops aren't popping "my" people (yet), the public pushback is going to be weak as fuck.
This is so fucking stupid I'm wondering if you're beginning to troll me.
So what happens to St. Louis police in this scenario? You're saying that the Police will give up their authority to the Federal level? That's severely anti-Republican on all fronts.
There's political forces at play here that you're seemingly completely ignorant about. Do you think the local chapter of the Fraternal Order of Police would allow military action to take place in their jurisdiction? Do you think that soldiers would be treated more (or less) specially than the local police? Do you not see how this causes distrust in the two groups?
Do you think Trump is effective at recruiting and merging organizations so that such political actions proceed smoothly? (IE: Do you think St. Louis Police would deputize the US Military, or vice versa, to share authority in a way that both sides agree upon?)
And that ignores the long-standing US Military tradition of staying the fuck out of local issues. The military command knows they're a bunch of killers. They don't want to deploy locally.
What are they going to do to stop it?
Refuse to hand over their jurisdiction to the military. Declare the military to be an unlawful invasion and a break of 10th Amendment rights. Etc. etc.
At that point, you're turning the local police over to the Protester's side. And the Police hold strong sway over the local judges and politicians. FOP in particular is powerful lobbying group because they hold the blessings of the Police.
What is Trump going to do? Order the military to fire upon the Police? Lulz. That's not how any of this works, and its not how coups work either. Over control of fucking St. Louis? Its not even worth the hassle.
"Refuse." "Declare." "Unconstitutional."
Yeah, those "saying things" tactics have worked so well to ensure that criminal acts are swiftly and appropriately addressed in the face of the new paradigm of "do whatever I want and dare anyone to stop me."
Plenty of pigs are already on his side, and would help him with this willingly.
Also, as president, SCOTUS has already ruled that he can pretty much do what he wants as long as it's an "official" act.
Plenty-o-pigs sounds like a great police hookup app
In some red states, yes. But that's largely in rural areas. I'm not sure if even a city in a deep-red state like Houston would cooperate with Trump.
Its not up to the Police in any case. It'd be likely up to the local Attorney's General.
If Trump wants to personally come down and deport Mexicans one by one, I'd love to see it. But otherwise, Trump is going to write a thing that likely won't make sense. Local police won't get any money for immigration issues and will complain about funding and long hours. Then all the shit will collapse unless Congress gives more money for a deportation program.
Oh no, its illegal to use the military for domestic police work? Deploying the National Guard would be a "faux pas"?
Well, I'm sure that will stop him for sure!
Its the next political bulwark and where we rally next. If Trump runs over that bulwark, then we make plans afterwards.
But the Military will NOT want to be seen going house-to-house deporting Puerto Rican American Citizens. I know there's a lot of racists out there, but if they do that, we just take some pictures and the national level outrage and blatant racism on the troop's faces will be shown for everyone. And trust me, if a mass deportation order were invoked, 100% legal US Citizens will be swept up in the blatantly racist attack.
These people cannot tell the difference from an illegal Mexican, a legal Haitian or a US Citizen Puerto Rican. I'm serious. So that's no longer a Trump-specific thing at that point. That's commanders and soldiers who will have to live with that for the rest of their lives.
The world doesn’t care man. The world doesn’t even care about genocide. why do you think the world would give a shit about mass deportation?
And what will anyone be able to do about it? That's the problem with installing a fascist autocracy. Outrage does not deter fascists. The left needs to organize and be prepared to physically obstruct these actions, and that is not going to be without danger.
He also stated he is going to courtmartial past and present commanders. I will assume that is so those that are left are like Russias, loyal to a fault.
We tie it to deep state federal officials invading private US Homes. And then Republican support collapses over the events.
Speak the language of the Republicans and they'll agree with you on this. Invading private homes with US Troops, looking for contraban (ie: illegal immigrants in this case) with mass warrants would be uncomfortable to even Republicans in these areas.
If Republicans really are cool with this then whatever. Onto the next bulwark. But we need to prepare our arguments and discussion points. But we will work to defend our political rights at each stage of this process as Trump tries to do random bullshit.
What part of people voting for this exact scenario makes you think they aren't going to be "cool" with it happening? Hell, Hispanic people voted for this. Why is it my job to save them from what they asked for? If we keep bailing out idiots when they do dumb things they will never learn how dumb they are.
I'm not banking on that happening in large enough numbers to change anything but I am not batman either. We signed up for this and we all need to realize what that actually means if we want to have any hope of making better decisions in the future. Some of us won't learn until well after that knock on the door and I don't have anything to say about that other than I'm not the one knocking.
US Neighborhoods aren't organized into "illegal" parts and "legal" areas.
A mass deportation scheme means hassling, and likely invading, many legitimate homes of legitimate citizens. And once we start talking about what Republicans hide in their homes, its.... well... the usual stuff. Porn, Guns, and the like. But that's not the kind of things that Republicans like revealing to federal officials.
Any mass deportation scheme will involve getting large numbers of Republicans personally involved into the mess. Maybe there's no risk of deportation (especially if they're white). But its still a huge hassle, and having legions of police and/or military going door-to-door looking for illegal anything makes anyone uncomfortable (even if they're "only" hiding guns and porn in their basement).
I'd expect most Republicans to demand to see the warrants and close their doors until proper documents are shown. Which then provides Undocumented the cover they need (ie: now the Undocumented can do the same thing: just ask for a warrant and close the door otherwise).
I mean if this is a real thing (and I have no idea if its as bad as we have seen all over), but I am sure there will be tip lines and you could tell them hey that guy with all the trump flags has been bringing in brown people at night. I think they are hiding them from the roundups. Might do something.... then again it might not.
So you're saying its like Swatting but even better?
Cool. Lets see how that plays out.
I mean they are using it on americans and people that are 'the huddle masses'. So in the idea of you dont talk about my backyard unless yours is clean, I could see this as fair play. But you are right, it is inhumane, and stupid that its not only being talked about but used in mass.
Of course they aren't but that's what I'm saying. If people thought this was going to be quick, easy, and precise they need to learn that isn't how it works. I say good luck to them but don't ask for my help when the lesson turns out to be painful.
I agree that it's worth trying. If Republicans can be persuaded that the "deep state" is becoming more intrusive it might provoke some questioning on their part. But I fear they would just retreat to "Those people must have done something to bring it upon themselves," and "It won't happen to me or my friends." Until it does, when they'll be shocked but also silenced.
Outrage can stop it if we present it in the correct argument to them.
What happens to the assets of illegal aliens that are deported? I bet that the police seizes it and then its auctioned off (or something close to that). So now we have a pretty straightforward story of federal level officials invading the homes of US Citizens and trying to steal their bitcoins.
The far-right outrage writes itself at that point, if they really go the route of mass deportations. But we need to make the event truly outrageous when it happens, and not just in a leftist mindset. The truth of mass deporations is horrific even to those with far-right viewpoints. But you have to frame the argument correctly.
If the second Bush era taught us anything, it's that there's plenty of soldiers willing to live with things for the rest of their lives.
This is a border patrol agent invading a Miami Home to take that small boy on the right (Elian Gonzalez) back to Cuba.
This was a defining moment of the 1990s. What happened here was a Cuban family had a claim on Elian Gonzalez, meaning not only was he an illegal alien, arguably the US-side of the Family was kidnapping him. Gonzalez's father (Cuban side) pushed heavily for US to get Elian back. Ultimately, Clinton agreed with the Father and used deportation agents to capture the child and bring him back to Cuba (effectively deporting him).
Nonetheless, armed troops invading a Miami private home caused a national-level outrage event. Even though it was a 100% illegal alien with a 100% legitimate claim to be deported (ie: be reunited with his Father).
The stories of what will transpire here under Trump will be far more horrific and less gray. They will likely include US Citizens who forgot to hold onto a Driver's License and suddenly are disappeared (especially if he uses untrained dumbasses like US Military, composed largely of 18 year olds who were too dumb to go to college).
We can rely upon the outrage that will occur, but only if we document and take pictures of the horror. The focus needs to be on documenting the horrors as the next step. In any case, no reasonable troop will want to be seen as the man on the left, and no commander will want to be the one to sign their name okaying something like this again.
That also ignores 4th Amendment issues and court cases. How many homes and warrants are they going to issue? Just fucking everyone in a neighborhood? Like how do you actually make this work?
There's pretty much one solution to this problem, as the Germans found out. These people will be placed in concentration camps while they languish and slowly die.
Passive voice because you're ignorant. Who will place people in concentration camps?
Because the who is incredibly important in this scenario and tells us how to fight. Are you saying the military will be deployed to create concentration camps across America? Are you saying local Police need to build these camps and maintain them? Or, does Donald trump need to pass a new law + build a new organization from scratch that will oversee this?
For-profit prison system still requires $$$$ to be pumped in for it to work. Where does Trump get the money for these facilities? Do the local states pay for them?
I'm talking about our serious next option here. Not pie in the sky fantasy scenarios. The realistic move is a boneheaded attempt by Trump to deploy the military for a mass deportation attempt, but he hasn't thought that far ahead yet. He hasn't figured out where people will be imprisoned, he hasn't figured out how to train the military for this task. He hasn't figured out US Citizen rights during deportation sweeps. He hasn't figured out jurisdiction yet. Etc. etc.
There's details to the plan that we can disrupt as it comes into fruition. We resist at every step and stop it at every turn possible.
Listen, just because you haven't paid attention to the things the Trump team has published and said doesn't mean you need to call someone else ignorant.
Theyve already said they plan to use local agencies to assist and anyone refusing would lose their federal funding. There are PLENTY of Sheriffs that would jump on the chance to round people up. Your assumption that the feds, ICE, and CBP won't play ball is completely unfounded. They have people already lined up for positions they need to make this happen. That's on top of Trump's former campaign manager literally saying they want assistance from their followers as "shock troops" for this as well. They've begun targeting sites for new detention centers near large cities. All of this shit you should already know Mr Expert.
You want to make the argument that theyre too incompetent to be successful, fine. That's probably our biggest safety net right now. But acting like it's not possible or that they don't have explicit plans is asinine.
The red state police (like state troopers), red city police, county sheriffs, and any number of federal agencies under homeland security and DOJ.
There plenty of personnel available to make the lives of people here both legally and illegally miserable. And remember, the misery is the point.
Directly capturing and imprisoning / deporting only 5% of this population would make a huge impact on inflicting misery and fear.
As far as what people will and won't do when given orders, almost nobody in this country who works full time has any safety net or nest egg. If you decide to quit your job on principle, many people are less than 6 months away from eviction. That makes it very difficult to stand your mortal ground without solidarity. Blue regions might develop that solidarity. In red regions, seems less likely.
Trump pissed on the FBI and continues to piss on it.
What's this DoJ you talk about? Trump is too stupid to use it for his own gains.
You are right if Trump was smart enough to take over. But I'm not sure he is smart enough. Secondly, even if he does take over DoJ and FBI, it will take time before his loyalists truly know how to use the agency or spin up their programs.
That's what Project 2025 is, dude. He doesn't need to know how to do it. He just points to the people that say his name the most, and they get to run the most powerful military in the history of the world, and they're already prepared.
And Republicans think 2025 is liberal propaganda. It will be different when it truly starts.
I remember when this happened and think about it often and its significant impact in the world of spin, media bias, and disinformation.
We don't get such large media stories about immigrants here in Texas. We just get small articles about dozens of people watched drowning while crossing the river or suffocating in train cars.
The people here are numb and complacent about those stories and they'll soon be downright malicious when they realize no one cares or everyone is too scared to do anything.
Hell override the posse comatatus act and use federal military troops.
If it gets that far, and I'm not convinced it will, Troops aren't trained for immigration issues.
Do you think 18 year old dumbass Privates and Corporals know the difference between a Puerto Rican US Citizen and an illegal Mexican? Do you think US Troops have any training on police actions? Lawyers or courts?
That's a disaster waiting to happen. We use troops rarely because they're dumbasses with a gun. We give them exceptional fighting training, but no training on finer details of policing. Use of force will be too high, rights will be trampled, US Citizens will 100% get caught up as military has no fucking training on this subject.
If it gets that far, then we know what to do. Take pictures, document, build national level outrage.
Defend yourself and your fellow human beings.