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I'm not talking about converting new believers from outside, I'm talking about children inheriting the religion of their parents. And yes, in the places where religion has spread, only a small percentage of the population wasn't religious, and it's a relatively recent thing that a significant fraction of society isn't religious.
But we still see a trend line of decreasing religiosity and a taming of extreme religious beliefs.
Children are way more likely to take the religion of their parents than otherwise, but they're still new believers that the idea has to be able to take hold in, and if the idea just doesn't fit then you'll see a departure. It's not like their religion is the only one trying to take root.
I just don't think we see the world today that we would if religion spread with the force of population dynamics.
We see majority religions like Christianity decreasing, but minority religions are actually increasing, at least in the US.