Short of congress changing the law or a successful coup, neither of which are necessarily off the table, yes these next four years will be Trump's last in office. Who knows what either party will have to offer in 2028.
this post was submitted on 14 Nov 2024
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Thankfully it is not a law and congress can't change it. It's the 22nd amendment to the constitution and thus would require 3/4 of the states to ratify a change. A coup is more likely.
The only exception I know to 2 terms and 8 years are getting moved from vice president to president and I think that also has a limit. The problem is the US president is now above the law and no one other than congress can stop him, and his sycophants own congress.
Correct, this is the last time he can be elected.
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.” https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxii
Unless you change the rules with the help of the supreme court of which you elected several judges. I mean, Xi and Putin did it, why can't Trump?
By all means, I'd expect him to try, however, this is a constitutional amendment. The Supreme Court can't take back an amendment the way they can strike down laws (I.e. by ruling it unconstitutional for whatever reason), because it IS constitutional by definition.
Thankfully, the Constitution is also very specific about what it takes to amend it further. 2/3 of both chambers of Congress, or 2/3 of state legislatures must vote to just propose an amendment, and then, to pass the amendment, they need 3/4 of the vote. Because the process is enumerated, there's no legal ambiguity they can use to shape their ruling the way they want. To remove term limits, you must amend the Constitution. To amend the Constitution, you must meet these (intentionally) high thresholds. If A -> then B.
So, unless Trump is able to woo half of the sitting Democrats, as well as 100% of the Republicans, we're safe from the system being used to guillotine itself (instead, the system will spend the next 4 years hitting itself in the face with a bat). Now, if Trump wants to seize power outside of the system, that's a different ball game, and the relative friendliness of judges and Congress is a moot point.
Also, given how Trump's been even more incoherent and irrational in this election compared to 2016's, I'd be surprised if he's still grounded enough in reality (or even alive) to seek more terms in 2028 - he's already in his 80s and doesn't live a healthy lifestyle; he has supercharged billionaire-only medicine, but there are only so many miracles that medicine can do.
I guess maybe the Republicans would try to keep him as a front for PR (like a puppet president) while hiding the fact that he's senile from the population, and governing from the shadows. Which I suppose is barely better than direct rule from Trump himself.
I hope accurate assinations make a come back if that happens.
Accurate Assassinations is a nice band name.
You can only be elected as president twice. You can probably hack the system by getting multiple other presidents to select you as vice president, then resign. If you serve more than 2 years of the term they were elected to, that reduces the number of times you can be elected as president to one.
The 22nd amendment doesn't say that someone that serves 3.99 years of another president's term multiple times can't still be elected, and it doesn't say that someone not qualified to be elected as president can't be elected as vice president, but the 12th amendment might. Either of those could be an interesting legal fight.
That's against the rules though. I think it's the 13th amendment that says a president who was elected twice can't be selected as VP.
Legally he's only got 2 terms. However as my government teacher explained, the constitution says what the Supreme Court says it says. So who knows what they'll say about it.
He didn’t win the popular vote first time so they’ll argue he wasn’t “elected” then.
No
They'd have to do some "creative interpretation" of the law
They've already said that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment doesn't exist.
Very creative
It's 2 total terms. There's no "resetting the clock" in that rule. Any attempt to remain in power for a third term would be blatantly unconstitutional.
That said, there's a real concern that he's likely to try anyway, and a non-zero chance that he'd succeed if he manages to fill enough of the government and military with people more loyal to him than to the constitution.
It's worth mentioning that this has only been the case since the 1950's. FDR was elected four times and died during his final term, after which term limits were added to the constitution in response.
It's also worth adding, though, that the convention of only running for at most two terms had existed pretty much since the establishment of the republic (until FDR broke it), when Washington and Jefferson each chose not to run for third terms
Yup, Washington was wildly popular at the time. He easily could have stayed in office indefinitely, as long as nothing horrible happened. But his reasoning was that they had just rebelled against a monarchy, and he didn’t intend to start another one.
He gets two terms, whether they're split up or not. This is his last term by law.
He's probably just going to stay anyway, because Republicans have managed to infect government with the kinds of losers who would back something like that.
It means this is his last term, barring any changes to the law or extralegal shenanigans, period.
Two terms, regardless if consecutive or not.
Technically the limit is on if a person can be elected to the office. It might be possible for a person that have been elected president 2 times to the run for vice president and have a loyalist run as president, then have the loyalist resign after getting sworn in and making the VP president. But a person that isnt eligible for president should not be eligible for vice president either. But we dont know if this means a person who isnt eligible to be elected president can become vice president, since the person can still serve as president, just not elected to it. We don't know since this has never been court tested.
Also if a person serve less than 2 years, they can still run for 2 terms. So even without the "president resign and VP becomes president" shenanigan, a person can technically serve for 10 years minus 1 day.
Also, the speaker of the house does not have to be a member of the house. So technically a person who has been elected 2 terms can be chosen as speaker of the house, then have the president and vice president resign and the person now become acting president for the rest of the term. I'm pretty sure this maneuver doesnt need to go through courts since you can become speaker of the house even if you are inelligible to become president or vice president, so it wouldn't prevent the person from being speaker, and the text on the 22nd amendment only prevents a person form being elected more than twice, no mention of any limit on if a person can serve or act as president.
Anyways, thanks for coming to my ted talk on political shenanigans.
The clock is not reset like Russia.
...yet
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