this post was submitted on 14 Oct 2024
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There are 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016.

The world has proven reserves equivalent to 46.6 times its annual consumption levels. This means it has about 47 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).

This means that the oil is going to run out in our lifetime

Source/more reading: https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

Update: It is infact not true (or just partially true), because it only considers already known oil reserves that can be pumped out with current technology.

There is more oil that can potentially be used as technology and infrastructure advances, so the estimate of 50 years is wrong.

For the correction thanks to [email protected] (their original comment)

(page 2) 21 comments
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[–] [email protected] 46 points 2 months ago (4 children)

"Peak Oil" they used to call it. Lots written about to collapse of everything after Peak Oil. Been predicted since at least 1970's.

Now we need to run out for our own good.

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

They've been saying this for 50 years at least.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 2 months ago

There was 50 years worth of oil left 20 years ago too

[–] [email protected] 24 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (7 children)

I heard the same thing 30 years ago.

There are still unproven reserves waiting to be discovered.

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (4 children)

I believe prices will increase dramatically long before we actually run out. Any non-critical usage of plastics and petroleum products will be phased out for economic forces if nothing else.

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[–] [email protected] 46 points 2 months ago (2 children)

I remember when they said there were 30 years left in the '90s.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 months ago

Yeah, not trying to poke holes, but I was hearing "less than 50 years left" when I was in school in the 2000s. I do remember seeing a post here and there about new oil reservoirs being discovered but never any follow up. So I suppose that could be stretching things out. But oil use certainly hasn't decreased in the last 25 years.

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[–] [email protected] 91 points 2 months ago (2 children)

I wish this was true so that there would be a hard limit to within this century, on how much ff related damage we will do.

Unfortunately, they are still finding more, particularly in the north. How much yet-to-be-proven oil still out there is what really should be considered along with technology improvements that increase how much oil can be effectively recovered.

proved reserves only represent the oil that a given region can theoretically extract based on the infrastructure it has planned or in place. This is only “the tip of the iceberg,” says Steven Grape, who works with proven oil reserves for the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

[–] [email protected] 34 points 2 months ago

Not to mention the vast reserves known to be in Antarctica.

That treaty is only going to last so long before people start getting desperate and start fighting over it.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Oooh I didn't think about that... I'll update the post

[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 months ago

The reason for the 50 years of oil, as I heard it explained, is that this is how far ahead the oil companies plan. They look for enough oil to cover the timeframe they plan for. When they have that covered, they don't look, until they need more. When they need more, they go and find it.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago (2 children)

I'll be 91. I'm sure I'll have bigger problems by that point.

......such as having been dead for the past 49 years!

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago (2 children)

What's the implication? Invest in oil barrels?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 months ago (3 children)

No, I think quite the opposite. I learned this recently and I was quite surprised no one ever uses this as one of the arguments for renewable sources of energy.

Because why invest in an industry that is basically declining and wouldn't be around after 50-60 years.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago

People have been using this as an argument for renewables since what? The 70s oil crisis? As new ways to access hydrocarbons got discovered the horrified realization was that there are plenty of reasons to bail on those faster than they run out, unfortunately. The issue isn't that we'll run out, it's the amount of damage we'll cause until that point.

And also, it'll take much longer to run out, but others have mentioned that already.

This thread is interesting to me mostly as a periodic reminder that culture wars have shorter memories than one would think. People forget hotly contested issues and the public opinion battle lines around them at a horrifying pace. You'd think it has to do with old people dying and new people growing up, but it's a lot faster than that.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

It's because it isn't true. We don't go looking unless it's needed.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 months ago (3 children)

It's ok, there isn't 50 years of world left.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago

Every human ever has believed this. Christians have believed they're the last generation for 2,000 years now

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Of human-habitable world, you mean.

Imagine if the dinosaurs had newspapers back then: "THE WORLD IS ENDING!!" And mammals be like "lol"

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 months ago (3 children)
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