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108

Harris is borrowing from 'Republican playbook' as she leads Trump in new national poll (www.cnbc.com)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 55 points 1 month ago (1 children)

So a couple of things...

As usual, national polls are useless. Numbers after the jump.
"pollster Frank Luntz said."

Obligatory "Fuck you, Frank!"

For those who don't get that reference, it's from Penn and Teller's "Bullshit!" episode on polling:

https://youtu.be/7nGv_xmT7mY

https://youtu.be/0s5Q1e8EBwA

Now... ALLLLL that being said... Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.

AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

NM - Harris +5, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

FL - Trump +6, +13, +14
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

MN - Harris +5, +6, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Plotted on the map:

As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that's it, she doesn't need anything else.

Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.

For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.

Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.

Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Can someone further compress this down so my illiterate ass can parse it more easily?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Harris has 3 paths to victory, a 1, 2, or 3 state solution.

Trump has 2 paths, a 3 or 4 state solution.

Only 5 states are up for grabs. If Harris loses PA, she has 2 more options.

If Trump wins PA, he still needs 2 to 3 other states.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

Thank you for the hard work you put into this! This is really encouraging.

[–] [email protected] 24 points 1 month ago

Kamala needs 1 state
Trump needs multiple states

All kidding aside, OP did a great job compressing it all in the last 2 paragraphs.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 month ago

Please crush the Orange Turd for good.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago (2 children)

“If you just listen to these general statements, she actually sounds like a moderate Republican,” Luntz said.

“So the challenge for the Trump campaign is to just stop with these incessant character attacks, and challenge her on the specific issues and her claims,” he said.

The author is expecting trump to act logically...

I have no idea who would think that's even an option, trump will do the same thing every Republican has done since the rise of American neoloberalism in the 90s:

Move even further right to differentiate from "moderate" Dems.

The result is the Dem candidates start sounding like moderate republicans. Which the author also seems to think is a good thing.

That means the two candidates we have to choose from is the Dem who sounds like a moderate Republican and a completely insane fascist.

I dont know why anyone that isn't at least as far to the right as a moderate Republican would celebrate that is the most left leaning option. Even they have to realize this arrangement only helps the extreme rightwing party because it turns everyone left of center off from the Dem party. Instead of people happy to vote D, we get people who might not vote at all.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Move even further right to differentiate from “moderate” Dems.

Which is bad if it means the Dems swing rightward. Fortunately, I have reason to believe the opposite is happening.

Remember, Senator Elizabeth Warren was once considered a die hard conservative: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/16/elizabeth-warren-was-once-republican-she-shouldnt-hide-it/

But her current views seem quite leftie to me. This means me think the shift is going in the opposite direction.

The result is the Dem candidates start sounding like moderate republicans. Which the author also seems to think is a good thing.

Sounding is good in 2024 to retain the never trumpers who pushed Biden past the post in 2020. The danger is less sounding, and more actually becoming. Fortunately I don't think that's happening..

The author is expecting trump to act logically…

Agreed. Anyone who expects this is bound to be disappointed.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago (1 children)

get people who might not vote at all

if harris loses this election, then the country is finished. i hope these "protest vote" morons enjoy being arrested for not being sufficiently obsequious to trump and his roving loyalty verification squads. maybe their "principles" will save them LOL

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 month ago

I think this is a big part of why Harris can win. She'll pull in enough of the Liz Cheney minded folks, and all but the most extreme lefties will still reliably swing for Harris as well - for exactly the reason you state.

Folks who state that Harris shouldn't be trying to be moderate or centralist are making a big mistake here. Those on the left would never stop supporting the Dem party while Democracy itself is at state in this country. The ones we're most likely to lose are the actually the ones who are in the centre, and I fear that these are the ones we can least afford to lose (in particular since so many of them seem to live in the midwest (where smaller states mean higher voting power per person) and in the battleground states.

[–] [email protected] 66 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I like how this and the Reuters/Ipsos poll that has her lead dropping are both on the front page right now.

Don't pay too much attention to polls. They're broken as hell right now.

[–] [email protected] 31 points 1 month ago (9 children)

Anyone ever been polled? I haven't and nobody I know has either.

I think the Internet ruined polling they dunno how to collect data correctly anymore they're probably stuck with boomer brains on the topic or something

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I have been. I get contacted fairly regularly for polls.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I live in Tennessee, and I don't think we've even had a statewide poll since Biden dropped. I wasn't contacted for that one. But - everyone knows which way Tennessee's gonna go, so it's not like it matters. I'd be curious to see if Harris moved the needle, though.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

Same here in Massachusetts. Last time I checked in 538, the latest poll had Biden in the lead

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I've been getting about 2 polling calls a week for the past few months.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I have been getting texts

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I got polled about two weeks ago. I only answered the phone because I was expecting a call from a new number.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I've actually gotten two poll phone calls and one mailer this year. The pollsters showed up as "Suspected Spam - Poll" on my phone.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 month ago

A guy in the mall polled me one time but he just asked me questions like "name something you groom yourself with"

Duh, a bride, obviously.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

I've been called and texted a bunch. I only answered 1 call last night and answered their polling. I should have mentioned Lemmy and the fediverse and the only place I get my news, so they would focus more on it, but I didn't think about it in time.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

I definitely got a poll a few years ago from a GOP senate candidate that was a bunch of questions like “How TERRIBLE has Joe Biden’s economic policy been???”

It was literally damn near impossible to select responses that actually conveyed any reasonable favor toward a Democrat policy or action. Now granted, this wasn’t a national pre-election poll that any reasonable aggregator would include, but it’s still a reminder that statistics can be whatever you want.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago

That's just a "push poll". They're only used for marketing/propaganda and fund raising. I doubt they even look at the responses.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 month ago

In today’s NY Times/Siena poll Kamala Harris has a 93-point net advantage with Democratic voters while Donald Trump has just an 80-point net advantage with Republicans - an indication that the unprecedented number of high profile Republicans opposing Trump are having an impact.