It's only fake news when it goes against their agenda. Otherwise, it's bigly accurate.
this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2024
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If Trump were still leading, we'd hear how its going to be a Red Wave and he's going to do 10-pts better than advertised.
If he's losing, its cause he's secretly winning.
If he's losing bad, its cause there's a vast deep state conspiracy and don't trust the elections its just like Vuvuzela.
Don't trust polls.
There's always an element of society who pretend they don't know who they're voting for yet. They're voting for bad things, they know they're bad, and they are embarrassed to tell pollsters.
Vote.
Don’t trust polls.
High quality pollings (Gallup, Ipsos, various university polling groups) are consistently reliable within the margin of error. There's no point in being afraid or dismissive of them.
There’s always an element of society who pretend they don’t know who they’re voting for yet. They’re voting for bad things
There are plenty of people who are disinterested or uninformed. They aren't naturally malicious simply because they don't religiously follow political news. Lots of them don't even know if they're going to vote until early voting starts, and even then only vote as part of their family or social group rather than because they have an emotional attachment to one of the parties.
The regional nature of voting tends to mean that if you're too shy to express your views, you aren't in the majority anyway. Its the guy who answers the phone in a MAGA hat and shouts "Hell yeah I'm voting fer Trump!" that you have to worry about, not the one who is too shy to whisper support for RFK Jr down the line.
don't trust polls.
This isn't telling you to not be confident or to be scared, this is telling you to not assume victory is assured. Vote regardless of polling. Polling can be accurate or not. If the polling is accurate, and a majority would vote for A, but A is so far ahead of B that A-voters sit out the race, B can still win if enough voters choose to stay home.
this is telling you to not assume victory is assured
Who looks at a 50/48 polling split and thinks victory is assured? That's still within the margin of error and it doesn't even include battleground swings.
But if it was 60/40? Yeah, I'd feel pretty assured. You'd be a fool not to.
If the polling is accurate, and a majority would vote for A, but A is so far ahead of B that A-voters sit out the race
People keep talking about this like it ever actually happens? Name one candidate that lost an election because the polling was too favorable.
Not to mention the incredibly questionable ways of gathering data.
Like calling people in the day, on their PHONES, asking how they might consider voting. Like MF, I'm working in the day and I'm not picking up a random phone call to tell you about my political alignment.
Yeah, I don't know if it's still even possible to do an accurate poll these days, what with how hard it is to get accurate representation of the following groups: people who ignore all unrecognised calls, people who hang up as soon as they can tell it's a mass call rather than something for them specifically, and people who don't want others to have accurate information. It's even difficult to accurately measure the size of each of those groups, let alone figure out what they think.
Like calling people in the day
I had a pollster call me at 10pm.
I like how the Republican playbook is "grow a beard if you want to look manly" and it just makes them look shlubby more than anything. Vance and Cruz are prime examples.
This guy would look baby faced if he shaved. I have the same problem where if I shave I look 10 years younger than I am.
I'm not claming this guy (or myself) are the pinnacle of attractiveness by any stretch of the imagination. Just saying what I know from a similar genetic background and age.
Such performative masculinity, you can never be the underdog or have nuance.
Harris is up by a point or two nationally, and that's not necessarily enough to win. Battleground states are all too close to call. The RCP electoral map is still giving Trump the win granted they tend to be R-biased in their poll aggregation but that is the path to claiming Trump is in the lead.
So what I'm not understanding, is what happens when they aren't elected and they remain unable to do basic math.
They seem to really putting all their eggs into the basket of "numbers are fake, do our bidding" but somehow fail to realize without the numbers they won't have support?
Like they really think they have enough weird dudes with too many guns to out gun and out fight the military that is currently under Biden's control?
Also, have they accounted for the fact that the number of armed crazies gets even smaller when the crazies realize they don't get paid for fighting?
Like they really think they have enough weird dudes with too many guns to out gun and out fight the military that is currently under Biden’s control?
That is debatable. Yes, Biden is the CiC. But assuming that the military--which skews conservative (and enlisted people skew very conservative)--is going to follow orders across the board if there's a genuine civil war is perhaps a bit naive. The US Civil war saw a number of generals and higher-level officers defect to the CAS, and I would expect that we'd see the same kind of thing now.
My point is, it needs to be an undeniable win for Dems, something so overwhelming that there can't be any reasonable questions.
The military is more liberal than you think. Yeah their area shit heads in every org and a 18 year old private is always going to be stupid and buy that charger and say stupid shit. But the NCO rank and file are not the same old guard from the 80s and the army is making changes to appeal to GenZ to help with recruitment. E.G base name changes and leave requests for family planning, etc. But also Vets that have been down range got to know groups liked the Kurds and are very pissed what Trump did to them.
I just visited my ex-FiL at the VA hospital and he’s telling people that now that he’s sitting around watching TV, he realizeshr can no longer think of himself as Conservative because he’s liberal as hell relative to MAGAts
While I would hope so, I've known more than a few vets. A few are fairly moderate to liberal, but a whole bunch are MAGAts. Maybe that's just because I do as many 2-gun competitions as I can, and the MAGAt vet-bros are self-selecting to be there because they didn't do enough run-and-gun when they were in the military, IDK.
yeah I can see that self selecting is to blame. Most of the Vets I know after I got out that are more liberal you can't even tell they are a Vet. It the people that make the military their core identity. Like the idiots that wear tactical gear and special forces t-shirts. Like the last thing I ever want to see is a plate carrier or ruck again lol. Those combat ball caps they sell at the VA are so cringe it's worse when they are under the age of 70 wearing them.
Like the last thing I ever want to see is a plate carrier or ruck again lol.
Ha, and I do it for fun. But I think that the plate + carrier loadout I wear in two gun is a lot lighter and less restrictive than the IOTV and full combat load. I also don't have people shooting at me or have to worry about frag, because 2-gun in fundamentally a game.
But even most of the vets I've known outside of that were generally more conservative than the general population. It could be the area I'm in; I'm in the deep south. But even when I was Illinois, the people that I knew were vets--and not the vet-bro stereotype--trended more conservative than not.
lol you do you I guess I'm just not high speed, lol Were they active duty or retired? Also I noticed that Guard skewed more conservative than AD but don't know why. Honestly i think that might be my dad was republican so I guess I am too but that would align the same with civilian population.
Trump: See, the polls were wrong! Particularly in the places where my supporters controled the counting process AND refuse to release the final count! Oh, you got those electoral votes thrown out? Too bad the consitution gives the presidency to Republicans if no one reaches 270 electoral votes (one state, one vote)
They're already laying the groundwork for claiming the election was stolen
They've been doing that for years
This is a part of the plan to delegitimize and undermine any election result that doesn't go their way. "The election results are fake. We've been telling you for months that the polls are crooked so the election must have been crooked."
“It’s not over on Election Day. It’s over on Inauguration Day,” (Trump campaign manager) LaCivita told Politico’s Jonathan Martin during a Thursday interview at the RNC.
Fake announcement !
You done messed up JD Vance
Dear MAGAs Please believe your vice Führer. You will win. No need to go vote.
This guy is sofa king annoying.
He's going full Baghdad Bob. You never go full Baghdad Bob.
The Harris Walz campaign needs to call them ~~lists~~ liars in public. Constantly. I don't see how there isn't intent and capacity here.
needs to call them lists in public.
What?
I believe they meant to write "liars" and autocorrect stepped in
Omg that was pretty bad. Liar what they said, call them lists
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