Robots, maybe some jobs, but good luck eliminating the need for repair men and engineers.
this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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- People vastly overestimate the abilities of AI.
- Developers vastly overestimate their own abilities.
- There are people on any level of seniority that would be perfectly replaced by a noise generator.
The company had avoided certain destruction, after having fired the previous CEO and putting a new one in it's place. The new CEO had managed to bring a newfound calm to the company and it's ranks, and brought an air of meditative discipline to board room meetings.
Some said it was crazy, but making the LectoFan EVO the new CEO was the best decision the company board had ever made.
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I would love AI to replace me and anything I can do to speed that up I would do it.
This is why I've sided with the enemy and my career involves educating people on how to build AI automation.
I was afraid of AI coming from my job, so I decided to learn about it. And by learning about it, I learned its limitations, which are numerous.
Someday maybe it will be strong enough to take on an entire engineer – but it's going to be a very long time until that happens. If anything, I've spent more time screwing with prompts making sure that they're perfect to try to get better outputs. Really where I see our jobs going is prompt engineering, DevOps, and fine tuning
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In pharmaceuticals, AI will not replace workers in manufacturing or laboratory. It's even far more useful for drug discovery. There is a recent report of AI designing a new and effective antibiotic, in which the research and development for such drugs have basically stopped since the 1990s because bacterial antibiotic-resistance tend too evolve too quickly for antibiotic discovery to keep up.
Edit: i meant bacterial antibiotic resistance
We do this every 15 years. For anyone less than 15 years into their career, welcome to the party.
Let's see if I can save you some energy:
- Yes, it made my job massively easier.
- No, it didn't replace me.
- Yes, it allowed a bunch of new people to also do the job I do. Welcome newbies!
- No, my salary didn't go down, relative to inflation.
It turns out that the last mile to a successful product delivery is still really fucking hard, and this magic bullet tool also didn't solve that.
Now... Am I talking about...?
- AI?
- Web frameworks?
- English like programming language syntax?
- A compiler with built-in type checking?
- All of the above.
Edit: Formatting for readability.
No, my salary didn't go down, relative to inflation.
I'm calling bullshit on that one.
Everybody's salary except executives has gone down relative to inflation going all the way back the the 80s.
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I mean honestly for things like tech, the jobs are going away due to these innovations, just piecemeal. Each of these innovations have shaved hours off of projects. Now someone's salary might be the same and they might still have to go into the office 40hrs a week (or be just as productive working from home, go figure) but the actual work they're doing is that much easier than it used to be, they might only have to work 4 hours a day now to accomplish what might have taken 2 days in the past.
Sure, certain companies put more demand on employees than others, and as you mentioned there are still human components to the system that remain untouched by technology, but if the tech world was honest with itself tech employees do far less work now than they did 10-20 years ago, disregarding the general expansion of the tech industry. I'm just talking about individual jobs.
Of course I don't think those employees should be making less. I think if we innovate so much that a person's job disappears we should be able to recognize that that person still deserves to be clothed and fed as if they still had that job.
tech employees do far less work now than they did 10-20 years ago
Agreed!
Of course, if we had truly understood the situation 10-20 years ago, we could have admitted that they were primarily being paid to know how to get the thing* to work, and not actually for the hours they spent typing in new code. Hence the rise of "Infrastructure Engineer" and "DevOps Specialist" as titles.
*I omiitted the technical term, for brevity. But to be clear, by 'thing', I mean what professionas typically call the "damned fucking piece of shit webserver, and this fucking bullshit framework".
Yes, except for the fact that the flip side of those is that software, almost by definition, is automating away jobs in other industries.
So when it gets easier / cheaper to write software, other industries will spend an increasing amount on it to replace their workers. That's one of the reasons the software industry has continued to grow, even though it's gotten easier to write.
Sure, but also almost by definition, using tech to replace workers in other industries will reduce the total amount of workers needed for that job as you made the tech presumably to make the job easier or faster. My post was talking about the tech industry just because that was the topic, but as you mention, tech definitely replaces jobs in all sectors.
almost by definition, using tech to replace workers in other industries will reduce the total amount of workers needed for that job
The data on this is actually uncertain. Installing ATM machines to replace bank tellers should have been a slam dunk, but didn't really cut into bank teller total employment.
https://www.aei.org/economics/what-atms-bank-tellers-rise-robots-and-jobs/
Don't get me wrong, the ATM was the first step in a long chain of improvements that still ought to soon make bank tellers obsolete, and the dept of labor predicts 15% lower demand next year.
But even this relatively one-for-one swap of machines for people has taken half a century, so far.
That goes back to the point I was making earlier. For some reason a bank teller is hired for the same wage for the same hours, but I can almost guarantee you that because of the ATM they spend significantly less of their work day "working" because the ATM was designed to do a significant portion of their job. There certainly is an excuse to keep them around all day, there are some unavoidable tasks that only a human can do and they come up at random times throughout the day, but the ATM has replaced many of the working hours the bank tellers used to have even if the job didn't go away.
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