this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2024

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Nigel Farage’s Reform party overtakes Tories for first time in new YouGov poll (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

26 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Nigel Farage’s Reform party has overtaken the Conservatives in a poll for the first time in a national poll.

The Tories were pushed into third in the survey, by pollsters YouGov one point behind Reform on 18 percent to 19 percent

The findings will come as a body blow to Rishi Sunak after a disastrous election campaign and risks triggering panic among many Tory MPs.

As the TV showdown opened he told millions of viewers “we are now the opposition to Labour”.

...

The poll found support for Reform had increased by two points to 19 per cent while the Tories were unchanged on 18 per cent.

At the end of the debate, Mr Farage said to Ms Mordaunt: “A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

...

Many Tories now will be wondering if this was a freak poll or if more with Reform going further in front are set to be unleashed over the last three weeks of the election campaign. If Reform builds up a lead of five or more points it could see the world’s oldest political party go into a meltdown and face a wipeout.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

We may sneer at 'Good old Nige' but he's getting airtime and people are going to vote for him and his party, however cack we think are.

Now that may hurt the tories, which is all well and good, but if they keep getting publicity and what have you it's going to draw away votes from more deserving candidates.

Also hilarious as it was, we should not be condoning throwing of objects etc. at politicians, however much we dislike them. That's a slippery slope and could lead to some serious injuries. What appens when somebody decides it's funny and will get laughs on Tik Tok to throw acid or bleach? Or a glass bottle full of piss?

We've seen what his 'patriotic' supporters are like and we don't need more of them.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

What appens when somebody decides it's funny and will get laughs on Tik Tok to throw acid or bleach? Or a glass bottle full of piss?

Oh get off it. Whataboutism at its finest most stupid extreme. Somebody throws a milkshake and you're going oh but it could have been acid, no it couldn't it wasn't actually thought it was acid and the last moment it luckily transmuted into milkshake. People are responsible for their own actions other people doing things which are similar but not the same degree a call to escalation.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

So you're saying it's alright to attack politicians that you don't like?

I expect that bloke that stabbed Jo Cox said that. And the other one that stabbed the tory MP.

You're as bad as they are. Goodbye.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

You are bloody ridiculous. You are not interested in engaging in a good faith discussion. No one said anything about stabbing people, or hurting them. Throwing some milkshake on Nigel farage is literally the least he deserves.

It is not equivalent to murder you absolute lunatic.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

Not to be pedantic (ha-ha, just kidding, I love being pedantic) but this is still a statistical tie, rather than a real lead, which would have to be 3 points plus. Additionally, it's only one poll, and it's from YouGov, who have consistently shown lower votes for the Big Two and higher votes for the smaller parties than other polling companies, even before their methodology change, which increased the gap between them and other pollsters in that regard.

What's more, Reform have consistently underperformed the polls in actual elections. Granted, Farage has increased their vote since he decided to stand, but the real elections suggest that he's increased it from a much lower basis than the polls would have us believe.

Take this with a tablespoon of salt, is what I'm saying.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (3 children)

The Electoral Calculus prediction based on this poll:

Labour: 462

Tories: 68

Lib Dems: 68

Reform: 4 (Clacton, Ashfield (Lee Anderthal's seat), Boston & Skegness, Wellingborough & Rushden (Peter Bone's old seat))

Green: 2 (Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central)

SNP: 21

Plaid: 4

Independents: 3 (Birmingham Ladywood, Islington North, Rochdale)

Which begs an important question: if the Tories and Lib Dems tie for the second largest party, who gets to be the opposition?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The possibility of Reichform taking Ashfield doesn't surprise me in the least. I lived there for a while and it's one of the most beligerent, mean-spirited places I've ever known. I've lived in deprived places before but I've never known a populations so nasty.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Somehow that doesn't surprise me. Deprived areas can definitely have lovely people in them - I live in a deprived area myself, and while there's definitely some specific spots that I would avoid, most people tend to be... well, normal, decent people. But I can definitely see how somewhere that would vote for Lee Anderthal and then vote Reform would not have the same vibe as a deprived area currently eyeing up a Labour or Lib Dem candidate with genuine interest.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

It's unprecedented but ultimately the Speaker decides.

I imagine that if, e.g., the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru agreed to back the Lib Dems to be the Opposition, the Speaker would take that into account. If neither the Conservatives nor the Lib Dems were able to get the support of smaller parties, I'm sure that in this scenario he would pick the Conservatives, on the basis that they had the most votes and therefore the most public support.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Which begs an important question: if the Tories and Lib Dems tie for the second largest party, who gets to be the opposition?

The leaders have to fight for it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Well I reckon Ed Davey could take Rishi Sunak, but if Sunak quits as leader and Suella Braverman takes over, I reckon she probably bites, so I'm not sure I'd like Davey's chances in that fight. Now if it was making both parties fight, the Lib Dems would win that because the Tories wouldn't have each other's backs, so superior teamwork and a lack of compulsive backstabbing in the Lib Dems would give them the tactical advantage.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

I appreciate the effort you've put in wargaming the scenarios and I think you have the correct solutions to the scenarios.

I think that, rather than a mass brawl, we'd need Thunderdome rules and Ed Davey wins easily - he looks like he's had a few scraps in the past and is a six footer, so has serious reach and weight advantages. A last minute tag in of Braverman would definitely change the odds as I doubt there is nothing she wouldn't do to win.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Yeah, Ed Davey seems to have all the niceness and decentness of a guy who knows he could fight if he wanted to. And all his stunts lately, in which he appears to have come to no harm, say a lot about his physical fitness. I'd put money on him to squish Sunak in a heartbeat.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Penny has experience welding the Sword.

Advantage Tories.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Assuming Penny decided against using the sword on Nutella.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

There can be only one!

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

...leader of the opposition!

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Is this going to make much of a difference with FPTP? I doubt it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

It won't make a huge difference to how many seats Reform get (though with the way they've been polling, Electoral Calculus suggests they might get 4-5), but what it does is cuts into votes for the Conservatives, which ends up helping Labour and the Lib Dems. Most of the predictions I've put into Electoral Calculus based on the latest polls have had Reform taking enough votes from the Tories that the Lib Dems end up being the second largest party. That's a pretty big change, despite FPTP!

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

That would be interesting. God damn this is going to be an exciting election.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

It is pretty exciting, isn't it? I'm actually in Canada the week of the election, so in the event of a Conservative wipeout, I reckon the Canadian news coverage of that would be pretty epic, since it would repeat their 1993 election.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Not really, and it's still unlikely Reform will win any seats. Clacton probably being their best shot.

But it's more about the symbolism of the most successful party in British history being relegated to third place in the polls.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Anyone remember the Lib Dems coming second in polls in 2010?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Where they won 57 seats to the conservatives 306.

Labour got 258

(Just for anyone else that wanted to know.)

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Well Farage's plan seems to be working.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

*Putin's plan.