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Nigel Farage’s Reform party overtakes Tories for first time in new YouGov poll (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Nigel Farage’s Reform party has overtaken the Conservatives in a poll for the first time in a national poll.

The Tories were pushed into third in the survey, by pollsters YouGov one point behind Reform on 18 percent to 19 percent

The findings will come as a body blow to Rishi Sunak after a disastrous election campaign and risks triggering panic among many Tory MPs.

As the TV showdown opened he told millions of viewers “we are now the opposition to Labour”.

...

The poll found support for Reform had increased by two points to 19 per cent while the Tories were unchanged on 18 per cent.

At the end of the debate, Mr Farage said to Ms Mordaunt: “A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

...

Many Tories now will be wondering if this was a freak poll or if more with Reform going further in front are set to be unleashed over the last three weeks of the election campaign. If Reform builds up a lead of five or more points it could see the world’s oldest political party go into a meltdown and face a wipeout.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (3 children)

The Electoral Calculus prediction based on this poll:

Labour: 462

Tories: 68

Lib Dems: 68

Reform: 4 (Clacton, Ashfield (Lee Anderthal's seat), Boston & Skegness, Wellingborough & Rushden (Peter Bone's old seat))

Green: 2 (Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central)

SNP: 21

Plaid: 4

Independents: 3 (Birmingham Ladywood, Islington North, Rochdale)

Which begs an important question: if the Tories and Lib Dems tie for the second largest party, who gets to be the opposition?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The possibility of Reichform taking Ashfield doesn't surprise me in the least. I lived there for a while and it's one of the most beligerent, mean-spirited places I've ever known. I've lived in deprived places before but I've never known a populations so nasty.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Somehow that doesn't surprise me. Deprived areas can definitely have lovely people in them - I live in a deprived area myself, and while there's definitely some specific spots that I would avoid, most people tend to be... well, normal, decent people. But I can definitely see how somewhere that would vote for Lee Anderthal and then vote Reform would not have the same vibe as a deprived area currently eyeing up a Labour or Lib Dem candidate with genuine interest.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

It's unprecedented but ultimately the Speaker decides.

I imagine that if, e.g., the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru agreed to back the Lib Dems to be the Opposition, the Speaker would take that into account. If neither the Conservatives nor the Lib Dems were able to get the support of smaller parties, I'm sure that in this scenario he would pick the Conservatives, on the basis that they had the most votes and therefore the most public support.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Which begs an important question: if the Tories and Lib Dems tie for the second largest party, who gets to be the opposition?

The leaders have to fight for it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Well I reckon Ed Davey could take Rishi Sunak, but if Sunak quits as leader and Suella Braverman takes over, I reckon she probably bites, so I'm not sure I'd like Davey's chances in that fight. Now if it was making both parties fight, the Lib Dems would win that because the Tories wouldn't have each other's backs, so superior teamwork and a lack of compulsive backstabbing in the Lib Dems would give them the tactical advantage.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

I appreciate the effort you've put in wargaming the scenarios and I think you have the correct solutions to the scenarios.

I think that, rather than a mass brawl, we'd need Thunderdome rules and Ed Davey wins easily - he looks like he's had a few scraps in the past and is a six footer, so has serious reach and weight advantages. A last minute tag in of Braverman would definitely change the odds as I doubt there is nothing she wouldn't do to win.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Yeah, Ed Davey seems to have all the niceness and decentness of a guy who knows he could fight if he wanted to. And all his stunts lately, in which he appears to have come to no harm, say a lot about his physical fitness. I'd put money on him to squish Sunak in a heartbeat.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Penny has experience welding the Sword.

Advantage Tories.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Assuming Penny decided against using the sword on Nutella.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

There can be only one!

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

...leader of the opposition!