this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2024
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UK Politics

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Nigel Farage’s Reform party overtakes Tories for first time in new YouGov poll (www.independent.co.uk)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Nigel Farage’s Reform party has overtaken the Conservatives in a poll for the first time in a national poll.

The Tories were pushed into third in the survey, by pollsters YouGov one point behind Reform on 18 percent to 19 percent

The findings will come as a body blow to Rishi Sunak after a disastrous election campaign and risks triggering panic among many Tory MPs.

As the TV showdown opened he told millions of viewers “we are now the opposition to Labour”.

...

The poll found support for Reform had increased by two points to 19 per cent while the Tories were unchanged on 18 per cent.

At the end of the debate, Mr Farage said to Ms Mordaunt: “A vote for you is actually now a vote for Labour.”

...

Many Tories now will be wondering if this was a freak poll or if more with Reform going further in front are set to be unleashed over the last three weeks of the election campaign. If Reform builds up a lead of five or more points it could see the world’s oldest political party go into a meltdown and face a wipeout.

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Which begs an important question: if the Tories and Lib Dems tie for the second largest party, who gets to be the opposition?

The leaders have to fight for it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Well I reckon Ed Davey could take Rishi Sunak, but if Sunak quits as leader and Suella Braverman takes over, I reckon she probably bites, so I'm not sure I'd like Davey's chances in that fight. Now if it was making both parties fight, the Lib Dems would win that because the Tories wouldn't have each other's backs, so superior teamwork and a lack of compulsive backstabbing in the Lib Dems would give them the tactical advantage.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

I appreciate the effort you've put in wargaming the scenarios and I think you have the correct solutions to the scenarios.

I think that, rather than a mass brawl, we'd need Thunderdome rules and Ed Davey wins easily - he looks like he's had a few scraps in the past and is a six footer, so has serious reach and weight advantages. A last minute tag in of Braverman would definitely change the odds as I doubt there is nothing she wouldn't do to win.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Yeah, Ed Davey seems to have all the niceness and decentness of a guy who knows he could fight if he wanted to. And all his stunts lately, in which he appears to have come to no harm, say a lot about his physical fitness. I'd put money on him to squish Sunak in a heartbeat.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Penny has experience welding the Sword.

Advantage Tories.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Assuming Penny decided against using the sword on Nutella.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

There can be only one!

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

...leader of the opposition!