Did you hear that Republicans? You guys got this election in the bag. Don't bother going out to vote because you are guaranteed to win. All these polls keep coming out that Trump is in the lead so just let democracy do it's thing.
this post was submitted on 27 Feb 2024
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clickbait article, quoting the poll and the juiciest numbers they could dig out of them.
This survey was conducted online within the United States from February 21-22 among 2,022 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX
Well what the fuck does that mean, conducted online? On AOL? PornHub? Did you spam people to click a link for your website? Facebook? It was facebook wasn't it. They don't say. FFS was it Xitter? Unknown. Here's the actual poll, which the bullshit article doesn't even bother to link to.
There are SIXTY EIGHT questions. Okay, I want you to sit down and go to my facebook page and answer sixty eight questions. Who does that? I doubt anyone here. 2000 people is at least more than 1000 that they usually use to barf up a headline, but, again, that's 0.00014% of the registered voters.
Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
Well, what were those numbers? It doesn't say. Were they current, as in, 2022-or-more-recent breakdowns? Dunno. Could be from 2006? Maybe.
Garbage.
The fuck are they doing including Elon Musk in "political figures"?
Giving themselves away shh
The actual poll:
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/HHP_Feb2024_KeyResults.pdf
It’s worth nothing that voters were also asked about 3rd party candidates, and Kennedy got a big chunk of the votes.
And they included Elon Musk as a "political figure". WTF?
These pollsters think they're Lucy with a football and we're all Charlie Brown. They were wrong in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, but surely this time they'll be able to predict the election.
Pollsters generally try to be as accurate as possible but probability is probability and with rare events like this we can expect to see a lot of nonconforming results.
Which is precisely why sensational headlines about a single poll is click bait I'm ignoring.
As noted previously, national polls are useless because we don't have national elections.
BUT - If you look at polling in the states that WILL matter... states that Biden won in 2020 and HAS to win in 2024:
Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan - Tie to Trump +2/+3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Nevada - Trump +6 to +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - Biden +8 - Last poll is so old as to be useless though.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin - Trump +3 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Plotted on a map, that's a Trump win:
This is terrifying and needs to get more attention
That's why I started following it and am continuing to follow it.
When I started, these states were 1/2 Biden 1/2 Trump, then they waffled back and forth, now they're full Trump.
Granted, Biden hasn't REALLY started campaigning, when Trump has been doing nothing but campaign... that might change when things get serious following the nominations in July and August.
We polled 75% Trump supporters and our poll shows Trump with a 6 point lead...
It gets sadder and sadder the older I get to see the state of America. The fact that this man ever even had a chance to be president, let alone after everything that has happened during and since his presidency, for him to still be the most popular option. I hate this.
I thought Bush elected for a 2nd term had to be the all time low. Trump winning once, and competing twice for a 2nd term, together with the general insanity Republicans have devolved to, while maintaining about half the populous support, makes it pretty hard to be an optimist about USA.
I know Russia has a hand in this, but turning Republicans to a Putin/Russia loving party, should not have been possible.
Trump is a traitor to ~~his country~~ USA, how the fuck can he achieve nomination even once?
Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
You can make a poll say whatever you want if you have no interest in the truth.
A Harvard CAPS-Harris poll
Mark Penn's fake poll.
Bad propaganda it's still propaganda..
Polls are polls, but just the fact that there is still any conversation at this point says a lot about the state of the country.
It really needs to be emphasized that polls this far out are basically meaningless. This far out, Romney was significantly outpolling Obama, and that was a blowout.
True, and it's also important to note that these are all polls of registered voters, not likely voters. This means they are much less reliable.
There was an article a while ago about Biden being up 10 in NY and everyone celebrating...
You have to go back to 1988 and Walter Mondale to see a Dem win NY by less than 15. Biden won by 23 last time.
He's not a good candidate, and if we're really stuck with him, he needs to pull his head out of his ass.
The media is absolutely owned by the wealthy and their sway over the common person is astounding.
From what I've seen (uneducated, informal, observation of recent smaller elections) it seems Republicans are losing ground with their crazy shit from school board seats to municipal/state elections - but this could easily be confirmation bias as I'm not really tracking repuglican scores.
It seems like regardless of what polls say, general America is fed up with the crazy and partially showing up to vote (or less R participating if they can't be assed to vote for a D) in less significant elections these days.
Hopefully it's a blowout democratic win this year and they can finally close the door on this Christian nationalist, Nazi, Gilead, bullshit across as many levels in for gov't as possible.
We've been engineered to have a short memory and an even shorter attention span. People who would vote for Republicans doubly so. All Republicans have to do is fly silent for a month or two and most transgressions and fouls will be forgiven. Whereas Democrats are still being held responsible for things they didn't do nearly 10 years ago.
The Hill has become complete fucking garbage.
They're reporting on a poll. How is that trash?
The only poll that matters is the one everyone votes on.
"Even if Trump is indicted in one of his legal battles, the polling suggests he could still defeat Biden."
He's already been indicted. 4 times.
Remember how Clinton's emails were a fiasco to some of these people?
Pretty sure they meant "convicted".
pretty sure this is a garbage article
His supporters absolutely do not care what Democrats call him, what legal issues he's involved in, etc. Democrats need to focus on policy and issues instead of solely attacking Trump. Democrats are not going to change Trump supporters minds. Stop trying to get a few Republicans to move over and start courting the actual Left.
Wasn't attempting to get anyone to change their mind. Simply pointing out the misstatement in the article.
I understood and was adding to it.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
And if he’s convicted of crimes related to his handling of classified presidential documents, voters are split 50-50 on who to vote for.
Trump has long framed his courtroom battles as political attacks, and the messaging appears to be resonating with voters as he continues to lead the Republican presidential field.
Nearly 6 in 10 voters in the poll said they think Democrats are engaged in “lawfare,” or “using the government and legal system in biased ways to take out a political opponent.”
The same percentage said they thought Trump’s legal cases make it impossible for him to be a viable candidate.
Voters were split 50-50 on whether the former president has committed crimes for which he’ll be convicted — as well as on whether Trump is a “threat to democracy” if he wins a second term in the Oval Office.
It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.
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