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You know, the last ten years have been a whole lot of "no way that will happen" and then that thing happens. I never ever would have believed that Luigi would have caused the kind of outpouring that he did or possibly even set a UHC bankruptcy in motion. We're sitting on a powder keg, saying it'll never go off because the sparks never caught for long before.
Brian Klass is a political scientist who recently put out his own philosophy of chaos theory. I think it's a pretty useful tool to look at contemporary movements and really refutes the "it couldn't possibly happen here" message.
Pre-2011 there was a paper published on why middle eastern dictatorships were so stable. The next year almost all of them fell. Klass argues that the author wasn't wrong, they just were working with the rules and tools we knew at the time, but didn't know the rules had changed with the invention of social media.
In his perspective, the idea of a "fluke" is not a fluke at all, it's a data point showing that things are changing and changing fast. Things just feel like flukes when our assumptions of the way things work become outdated.
Peasants were entirely self sufficient and had nothing to lose. It simply isn't the case for anyone who lives in a city.
Military coup is possible though
The enlightenment era revolutions were, almost unanimously, instigated and led by upper middle class fuckboys.
The French revolution wasn't lead by the rural peasants.
Thanks, I'll check it out!