this post was submitted on 20 May 2025
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[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Right, it gets into Russia's navy problem, which they've had for centuries and have never had a very good solution. Murmansk is one of the few (only?) ports they have that can reliably get ships out to the Atlantic. Black Sea ports have to go through the narrow channel at Istanbul (controlled by a NATO country, Turkey), and then you have to go through Gibraltar (England) or the Suez Canal (Egypt) (and you'd have to go around Africa if you go that way).

St Petersburg and Kaliningrad are on the Baltic sea, which is surrounded by NATO countries now. Even before then, the narrow opening in the North Sea could be easily blockaded.

Everything else is too far away. The sheer size of the country is both Russia's greatest defense and their biggest headache.

See also, this Drachinifel video about the Russian Baltic Fleet during the Russian Japanese War, where the fleet traveled the long way around, nearly starts a war with England, shoots up a bunch of civilian vessels and themselves, only to be curb stomped by the fledgling Japanese navy once they finally got there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag

Yeah, Czar Nicky Two was a bad ruler. Putin has made some boneheaded decisions, but he's a political genius next to Nicky.

I once told my wife "I love you more than Russia loves warm water ports" and they were absolutely smitten with the nerdiness. Which is why I married them.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

This is why they invaded Afghanistan in the first place. Their next step after what they thought would be a quick toodly-doo over the Afghanis was presumably to take a piece out of Pakistan in order to get a warm water port on the Arabian Sea.

It's also worth noting that you lumped St Petersburg and Kaliningrad together somewhat, but they are vastly different. While St Petersburg has challenges getting to open ocean, it's not the full-on exclave that Kaliningrad is, completely surrounded on all sides by the baltic states. I'm sure you know all of this, so this is for folks that don't. It wasn't entirely clear from the way you worded it.