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After 3 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe announces plan to ban all Russian gas imports
(kyivindependent.com)
this post was submitted on 06 May 2025
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Economies change slowly. To eliminate the demand for Russian Natural gas on that time scale means that they are going to have to import it from somewhere else.
Economically speaking the only move that justifies that price premium is if one wanted to unload their Dollar position and the time frame needed to do so would align with their fossil fuel reduction timetables.
It is not about them moving to a new reserve currency but unwinding the current position in a way that aligns economically and politically for their own countries.
There is a theory that the USD as global currency is at risk of being replaced due to BRICS. Often the RMB is posited as the successor to the dollar, but I don't think it is possible to use a currency that is not openly traded, nor for which we have insight into how its value is set (not derived by the market, but set by the country itself) as a vehicle for secure, stable exchange of value.
Of course, the current administration is doing a good job of running the USD down, but even with that I don't see how any other currency can replace it for the foreseeable future...
Full disclosure, I am not an economist