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I think your original estimate is correct, but the problem is that they've captured enough media outlets that sow doubt about right-wingers' true natures to make another 20-30% just uncertain enough to vote for the nazis.
Agree with your remediation, though. Confederates, Nazis, and J6ers are enemies of the state and should be forever barred from holding public office.
It's a ton of the media really, not 'just enough' afaict. So much reporting from all the US mainstream media treats everything he says with kid gloves. If he invaded canada tomorrow the headline on CNN would be something like "US military deployed in proactive peacekeeping mission to the north".
I mean "just enough" in terms of uncertainty, not in terms of the number of news organizations.
Though I also think that there's a matter of degrees here. Some news orgs are doing some heavy water-carrying, normalizing a lot of really non-normal stuff. Some are definitely trying to hedge their bets, being as deferential to the regime as they reasonably can in hopes that they can fly under the radar. And some of them are actually doing really good and unbiased reporting work, but not rising to the occasion of providing the necessary context required to show how much of a crisis this administration is.
And of course there are full-blown propaganda factories, and fully-independent news sources doing great reporting with great context. But both of those are pretty uncommon.