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Mark Kelly seems like the right pick to me, he's got the overview effect and has unique experiences and leadership, already has experience in the Senate which is their main job, can probably take his swing state blue, and his seat can be easily replaced.
Shapiro is too pro-Netanyahu IMO, I'm neutral on Beshear, but his seat isn't as easily replaceable, and losing a democratic governor would suck, and he might not take the state blue.
I like Kelly as a VP pick, but I don’t like turning a safe senate seat into a tossup. Beshear is term limited, so his lieutenant governor can finish the term and run as an incumbent.
I think they’re probably going with Shapiro, though. The old guard will see Pennsylvania turning blue and put their blinders on to everything else.
If Kelly gets the VP, the democratic governor of Arizona gets to pick his replacement, it's not a special election or a tossup!
I believe it would mean a special election in Arizona during the 2026 midterms. That’s a concern.