You may have noticed that in recent weeks, the Biden administration has been rolling out a hell of a lot of new regulations. Earlier this month it was big student loan reforms and a massive improvement in how public lands are managed, then this week we had better pay and working conditions for working Americans, minimum staffing ratios for nursing homes, and even improved service on airlines.
That’s not only because it’s an election year, though Joe & Kamala certainly do like to point out that where the Other Guy rages (and wants to raise inflation!) they’ve been busy making Americans’ lives better. But the bigger reason is that the administration wants to get new rules finalized prior to May, to keep them from being tossed out in the next Congress via the Congressional Review Act, which Donald Trump and his cronies used to reverse a bunch of Barack Obama’s environmental regulations.
. . . The requirement that coal plants find a way to eliminate 90 percent of their emissions by 2032 effectively accelerates the end of coal for power generation, which was inevitable anyway. Roughly 70 percent of US coal plants have already closed, and last year, coal generated only 16 percent of electric power, a new record low. In addition to the emissions rule, three other final rules also impose strict new limits on mercury, coal ash, and pollution of wastewater, to put an end to the environmental degradation caused by coal.
. . . The other option, obviously, would be for utilities to meet coming demand with renewables, as administration officials pointed out when previewing the new rule. Thanks to the IRA’s hundreds of billions of dollars in incentives, carbon-free power generation, including battery storage, already beats the cost of building new gas plants. Going forward, the administration is confident renewables will be the far more cost-effective and reliable way to meet increasing demand by 2032, when the emissions limits fully kick in.
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Maybe if it was actually believable, but there's so much propaganda now that unless you repeatedly and proactively affirm that people should vote for Biden, I'll assume that any criticism is just more right wing attempts at voter suppression.
If Biden wins the election, then we can have a lot more open criticism of Democratic policies because the bots, trolls, and agents provacateur will go away.
Has it occurred to you that making that assumption could also result in suppressed voter enthusiasm? Put yourself in the head of a genuine lefty who's fed up with Democratic shenanigans. What messaging might keep you in the fold, and what will drive you away?
Something else to keep in mind is that it's not just voting that we're talking about. Democrats need volunteers, donations, and word of mouth. Broad enthusiasm is critical for all of that. Who wants to volunteer for a movement that denies them a voice?
For decades now, every election has been called the most critical of our lives, and sadly it's been pretty consistently true. We have elections every two years. Criticism in the first year is called unfair because they just took office. Criticism on the second year is always called disloyalty in a critical election year. Disinformation is only going to be getting worse, so waiting for that to end is not viable.
Okay.
I'm sorry, I got bored. Can you make that into a tiktok video for easier consumption?
I've really got to stop being optimistic about devout Democrats. It really is the party of James Carville and Hillary Clinton - ignorant, elitist, and tone deaf until the end of time.
LOCK HER UP
I mean uh...sorry, that just came out. I meant um...something something Bernie something something DNC?
So I'm a right wing troll now? Think about it logically for a second. What do right wing trolls want to do when they jump into internal Democratic disputes? I'm pretty sure their primary goal would be to drive a wedge between the activist left and the establishment. Now, what am I arguing for? If you look back on this thread, I'm encouraging Democratic loyalists to post more content about Biden's accomplishments instead of trying to shame voters. It's basic conflict resolution. You aren't going to get any kind of reconciliation by being rude and dismissive. My whole point is to bring as much reconciliation to the Democrats as I can without compromising my political beliefs.
There is a serious rift in the Democratic party that you seem to be somehow completely unaware of. It didn't start with Hillary, or even Bill or Bernie. Look into the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago if you want to understand how deep and far back the rift goes. You aren't going to pave over the differences by belittling or dismissing legitimate disagreement. The only way to get to a unified front against Trump and his fascists is to acknowledge the differences in a respectful way, and then emphasize what can be gained by working together. That's way more important than trying to win some kind of smug victory in an online forum.
The idea that I'm a right wing troll is ridiculous, and I think you could learn a lot by exploring why you jump so easily to that assumption. If people like you didn't exist, right wing trolls would have to play your side as well. They want us sniping at each-other. Compare it to Hamas' strategy in attacking Israel. They knew that Israel couldn't help overreacting and destroying their own credibility. It's the same thing Osama bin Laden did to the US. When right wing trolls spread their disingenuous bullshit, their whole goal is to get a reaction from Democratic loyalists that further alienates the Democratic establishment from it's base.
I mean, okay, let's give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're being genuine here. Surely you acknowledge the absolute deluge of obvious propaganda, rehashed from 2016, trying to convince young, idealistic, uninformed voters to either not vote or to vote 3rd party. It's not an unreasonable assumption that anyone making comments in that vein is an agitator or a useful idiot. It's correct most of the time.
Getting drawn into one-sided good faith debates with such people is playing into their hands. Ridicule and dismissal defeats them.
If there is still doubt then you're just an idiot, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you just think you're being witty.
I acknowledge Oct 7. That doesn't mean I endorse the response. It seems like an obvious response. It seems maximally oppositional to their attackers. It's also exactly what their attackers wanted.
I've already explained to you why this is wrong. You are just making an assertion without even a hint of a theory as to why it's correct. You don't think that they expect you to do this? You think they don't expect you to piss off actual progressives when you act that way?
You identified me as a right wing troll as a result of their posts, and I never even said anything of the sort. In my recent history you can see me arguing against a lot of their bullshit, including "genocide Joe". Hell, you can go back to 10+ years of posts on Reddit with this username if you really want.
This is exactly the dumb behavior my original comment was about. You're not helping.
Do you or do you not acknowledge that there have been a lot of trolls and propaganda? Instead of answering my question you went on a weird tangent about Oct 7.
It wasn't a tangent, it was an analogy. I have also made it clear several times that right wing trolls exist. Why would I be discussing their strategy and how you're playing into it if I didn't think they exist? I don't think you are exactly trolling, but at this point it's clear to me that you are not trying to understand what I'm saying at all. I see no point in continuing.
Well we need to have a baseline agreement on the state of things before we discuss how best to handle it. I was trying to nail you down on that first. If you didn't believe trolls were a problem, there'd be no point in discussing how to handle them.
Everything you need to understand my position is in the thread. I haven't exactly been difficult to follow.
It's all moot anyways. It just became crystal clear that Biden doesn't care about the election, so it's all going to come down to how quickly Trump implodes.
You're talking about his statement on the protests? If so, I wish I could agree. I'm very disappointed in his stance. But it's definitely calculated to win the election. There's just more Israel supporters than Palestine supporters. And the Israel supporters are far more likely to vote. Did he do the right thing, morally? No. Did he do the thing more likely to win him votes? Probably.
OMFG, if we are going to do this, can you promise to pay attention? I'll be optimistic and assume you'll try this time.
First of all, you are just flat wrong about support for Israel's occupation of Gaza. Maybe on October 8, but that support has tumbled.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx
Second, Democrats win or lose elections on exactly one thing - turnout. The voters who may or may not show up are the whole fucking ballgame.
Third, the handling of that press conference was absolute political malpractice. I'm no fan of spin, but sometimes not even trying can be even more insulting.
Reporter: Have these protests caused you to reconsider any of the policies with regard to the region?
Biden: "No." - Mic drop, leaves podium.
Even without all the unnecessary lies in the rest of the conference, that is an absolute trash fire. Nobody expected Biden would stop supporting Israel, but being that tone deaf is remarkable for a career politician at the literal peak of their profession.
I agree with everything except the second point. What you say is true, but Leftists have proven themselves not to be counted on for turnout. A Democrat could expend all their energy chasing the Left, alienating a lot of centrists, and then one little thing starts making the rounds on Tiktok right before the election and y'all will abandon him. It doesn't even have to be true. The GOP could make a doctored video of him saying the N-word, and the suspicion alone would drive away enough Leftists to cost him the election.
Centrist voters are dependable. Leftist voters are fickle. Add in the fact that there's a LOT more centrist voters, and the calculus is obvious.
That said, I do think he blundered here. As you said, numbers on Israel are changing. Biden came down too hard on the side of Israel, not just morally but also politically.
Bidens best bet here was to be vague and noncommittal until Israel finally commits an atrocity covered enough by the media to tip a critical mass of centrists against Israel. Then Biden could suspend aid and be seen as a hero by all. He's severely limited the chance of that happening now.
That's amazing since all three points were in direct contradiction to what you just said.
False. If you went with young voters then you might have a point, except that I would disagree with the framing. I would frame it as "The establishment Democratic candidates have proven themselves incapable of earning the youth vote". That's certainly now the case for 2024.
The whole centrist thing hasn't been valid since the 90s. The electorate isn't laid out on spectrum from left to right anymore - if it ever was. A real discussion of how it breaks down would get really involved, but the populist/establishment divide is quickly becoming dominant over left/right. That's why Trump beat Hillary. The Democrats ran the most establishment centrist candidate possible against a far right populist and we all paid the price. The centrist position today is "Yeah, the politicians are corrupt as hell, but it's working out for me". It has nothing to do with the left/right spectrum. Centrist Democrats underperform in blue, red, and purple districts when compared to progressives in similar districts.
The numbers I showed you on support for the occupation included right wing voters who are almost entirely backing Israel. The percentage of voters who might vote for Biden and support Israel is small and shrinking fast.
There is no path now for Biden to be seen as the good guy, and he absolutely isn't going to suspend enough aid to move Israel anyways.
The important point is that I do agree that this trend is happening, and Biden is moving in the wrong direction here. His most loyal base has always been pro-Israel, but they're becoming alienated. He will be forced to pivot soon.
The smart move would have been for him to publicly voice disapproval of Netanyahu but privately continue funding him, for now, with an eye to cutting funding if poll numbers get worse. The fact that he came so heavily on the side of "break up the protesters" was a massive miscalculation. All his career being 110% pro-Israel would have been the smart move, but no longer.
Speaking of direct contradiction, this statement directly contradicts your weird idea that there's really no difference between right wing and left wing populist voters. Have you been hiding under a rock since 2008? Yes I agree, in the late 90s/early 2000s the gap between right and left was narrowing, but since the tea party Qanon phenomenon right wingers have gone off the deep end.
What are you smoking? That's not true at all. Moderates win. A lot. Red and blue.
That's going a lot further than I said. There are definitely left wing and right wing populists (i.e. Bernie and Trump) but most Americans aren't policy wonks and don't care a bit about left vs right political philosophy. These aren't centrists because they aren't on the line at all. However, a whole lot of those Americans have begun noticing that their money is somehow being taken by a tiny minority with obscene levels of wealth. These are the people that either sit out elections, or vote for a "reform" candidate. Trump, disingenuous as he is, effectively ran against the political establishment of both parties in 2016, while Hillary ran as a competent manager of the status quo.
What happens when the Democratic party runs after so called centrists with an establishment candidate is that they make right wing populism more attractive than left wing, and that's where Trump's base comes from. It's not unique to America or post 2k politics, it's how fascism always gets a foothold. It's all just 1930s Germany all over again. It's really not a dynamic that is well illustrated by a one dimensional line from left to right. A lot of voters that get categorized as the extreme right are the most conducive to populist left wing politicians. A Bernie Sanders gets a far better response from them than a Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton ever will.
Actually it is true, but I can't find the study at the moment. It's specifically about House races, which I do admit are a bit different from the Senate or Presidency. Two seemingly contradictory things are actually true. Progressives do tend to lose in redder districts more than establishment candidates, but they also tend to perform better when measured against typical outcomes for that district. The resolution to that contradiction is that the establishment fiercely fights to keep progressives out of districts that Democrats might win so, the average district progressives run in is more republican than the average district establishment candidates run in. What's true in almost every race is that progressives do better at outperforming local historical outcomes in almost any district. Whether that gets translated into a better win/loss ratio is dependent on which districts progressives get to run in.
Here are a few of links I did come across when looking for that study. They don't address it directly, but they do illustrate how the press struggles to map election dynamics to the left-right spectrum.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/12/how-to-turn-red-state-blue-purple-alaska-politics-2018-216304/
https://publicconsultation.org/redblue/new-study-finds-people-in-red-and-blue-districts-largely-agree-on-what-government-should-do/
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/05/09/purple-districts-elect-most-extreme-legislators-driving-polarization
Sounds plausible.
For local races, maybe. Senate and President, you have to win over the moderate behemoth.
Like Trump?
What the liberals and the media decry as "polarization" is contradictory to that assertion. It also masks the real behemoth which is Americans who think the government is controlled by money and that their needs are irrelevant.
It's also contradicted by the fact that, right before every election, Democratic politicians consistently move their rhetoric to the left. Just look at all the sudden activity from the Biden administration. Well, not Hillary, but most.
BTW: If it's the moderates really deciding elections, why is nobody lecturing them? Why all the attention on a group that doesn't matter (until liberals need a scapegoat)? This is just the liberal version of the fascist rhetoric "Our enemies are always both strong and weak". Progressives are both critical and irrelevant, as needed.
What passes as centrism in politics is actually pro-corruption or pro-corporation. The fact is that left leaning policy is what wins over voters, even those that don't consider themselves leftist. Furthermore, the Democratic establishment knows it and cynically uses it.
No one is lecturing Progressives. People are lecturing Leftists. Leftists have the numbers to give Republicans the win, since elections are so tight nowadays. But leftists don't have the numbers to win primaries or dictate policy positions without playing a game of brinksmanship. "Give us our demands or we'll let the fascists win" is the only play that Leftists have because they're a small minority. And it's a shitty move, which is why they're being lectured.
Yes but not when it's coming from Leftists.
People are unbelievably, irredeemable stupid. See "Affordable Care Act" vs "Obamacare". See "I dunno why, I just don't like the vibes of Hillary/Warren/Harris". See "despite all the stats saying otherwise, I believe we're in the middle of a CRIME EPIDEMIC".
And for the record, Trump did win over the moderate Republicans. Moderate Republicans are generally okay with extreme positions as long as their core demands are met. Democrat moderates need much more convincing.
Leftists range from progressives to communists, the vast majority of which are progressive in the US. You are trying to draw a very fine line here between two groups that almost completely overlap. In any case, you are wrong about nobody lecturing progressives.
Not if you exclude those that identify as progressives. If you include progressives, then the lie becomes the idea that leftists don't show up. You keep making that assertion, and it's absolute fiction. There is no evidence whatsoever that a significant portion of those politically engaged enough to identify as leftists don't show up for Democrats. What happens is that when the establishment fails to work with and reach out to progressives, they also fail to reach the fed-up Americans who have checked out of politics completely. Leftist/progressive policies are what drive engagement with many Americans who don't identify as leftists.
Is this supposed to be an argument against leftists using brinkmanship? "It's your only weapon so you better not use it." I think your framing is nonsense, of course, but taken at face value it doesn't really make the case you want it to. Also, the biggest factor hurting progressives is the myth that they can't win in the general. Exit polls were crystal clear that Democratic voters favored Sanders on policy, but thought he couldn't beat Trump. Polling on Biden vs Trump and Sanders vs Trump was nearly identical BTW, but you would never know that from the media coverage. Incidentally, I'm wondering if you are aware of how AOC unexpectedly beat Pelosi's protege. She didn't focus on moderates, she focused on unlikely voters. Leftist policies are the key to grassroots outreach to disaffected (non)voters.
The "people" you are talking about are the ones buried in the right wing media bubble. There is less than a 10% swing in approval ratings for Obamacare and the ACA.
I'm personally not big on the "Vibes" of Hillary/Warren/Harris either, and I'm guessing that indicates I'm sexist or something? Warren at least has a leftist bent, even if she is cynically an establishment tool. I'll take AOC/Porter/Omar please.
You might be a bit behind on the news, but it's recently surfaced that there were some major changes in how the FBI collects crime statistics that easily account for most of the drop Biden has been bragging on. Still, you are right that there is no evidence of a real "CRIME EPIDEMIC" nationally. Still, we are not talking about people that are likely to vote for Democrats here.
There is no such thing as a moderate Republican. All the worst things done by the first Trump administration were driven by and perfectly consistent with "moderate" Republican policies and rhetoric. Even January 6 was just the next logical step in Republican election rigging. Aside from the spectacle, it wasn't much different than the Supreme Court putting W in office.