I'm expecting a repeat od what's happened in the past, with major changes eventually happening when the working class gets too upset. But I don't expect that to happen for several more decades.
But with a much hotter climate this time around.
this post was submitted on 12 Nov 2024
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No we won't (enlightenment). We're in a global idiocracy that just goes downhill, the US showing us all our future. Sooner or later.
Said that 30yrs before, decided for no kids due to that, and just hoped i was wrong. But here we are, worse than i ever imagined. We as a species, i mean.
I survive not to cope with hope of a better tomorrow. I survive out of spite so I may get the chance to witness very very bad things happening to very very bad people.
We survived the Cold War. We survived that mild awkward moment where there were just 10,000 humans or something. We survived the Paleolithic by throwing and walking kinda good despite having super-mediocre body builds compared to the lithe apex competition.
Sure, a United Statesian might not know what price elasticity means when they go pro-tariffs, and shoot their foot on a national scale. Sure, "Eastern" youths might stretch themselves systemically thin to leap through an education colander into a limited, demanding job seat. Sure, there's a whole terror cloister awkwardly just below South Korea, a crap ton of eyes on the Ukraine, and the new context of exponentially advancing tech compared to the last kabillion years.
But I believe in the human spirit. Call me a fool. We don't even need to be enlightened to not destroy ourselves. We just need to be what we always fuckin been, what we always fuckin will be.
Stupid endurant.
in all three senses of the shit.
I think the general population of humans struggle to recognize, understand, and address large scale threats.
There's the scientific community that'll try to explain these issues to the general public in simplistic term. But they're often overruled by dumb idiots in charge who store snowballs in their freezer as proof that climate change isn't real.
There's a belief that humanity needs to be brought to the edge of extinction to realize how bad things really are and to get their shit together. I don't believe humanity would be willing to save itself from extinction as it's just not profitable to do so.
Im both amazed and terrified at the fact we haven't killed ourselves into extinction.
Cause it becomes easier by the decade every time.
The current trend sucks, obviously.
But historically, we used to be so much worse to each-other.
There's reasons (data and practicality) to have faith that things will continue to improve.
But it won't be enough, for many of us, in many of our lifetimes, so let's all stay angry and active.
I guess it depends on what you mean by destroy. Like literally population 0, I doubt itβll ever get there. But losing 75% of population, I can see some nuclear war breaking out
But losing 75% of population, I can see some nuclear war breaking out
Seems pretty likely (eventually). I take hope that I'll be in the direct blast radius, and not a mutilated horribly scarred survivor.
I choose not to think about this one much because it's well outside my circle of influence.
Ya everyday another corrupt superpower is getting that much closer to weapons of mass destruction. Iβm sure thereβs bio weapons already out there that would destroy huge chunks of the population. But nuclear would also be up there though probably much more difficult to hide
What is "better in general"? I don't particularly mind the human species going extinct, it's unlikely there'll be no life left over. No one knows the nature of the universe.
In any case, it's incredibly unlikely we'll go extinct anytime soon. Maybe climate change etc causes extreme loss of life, but humans are so adaptive, some will surely survive.
No one can even define "enlightenment" either. Maybe we already are, maybe such a thing doesn't exist. Currently, it's just a story element.
Society is already a balancing act. If anything, the balancing will just get harder.
Humanity is so fickle, itβs impossible to tell.
In the US, we went from overwhelming opposition to gay marriage to overwhelming support in less than a decade.
On the other hand, we went from aggressively eradicating CFCs and fixing the ozone hole to dragging our feet on renewable energy for several decades.
Even further back, we went from back-to-back world wars and economic collapse to a tentative global peace and prosperity.
Monarchy seemed inevitable for ages, and then multiple democratic revolutions all sprang up in quick succession.
Equality was fundamental to the Constitution, but we still havenβt healed the wounds of slavery.
There seems to be no telling. Some problems languish for a long time, but then see massive improvements in the blink of an eye. Some obvious fixes lay dormant for an offensively long time.
When I think about this stuff, I get a weird mix of hope and despair and guilt and frustration and impatience.
It seems unfair that we got stuck with these particular crises, with no guarantee that weβre actually prepared to handle them. (Maybe thatβs the entire story of humanity.)
And then I remember what Tolkien had to say about such things:
All of these radical restructurings of society were based on gradual buildup until catalyst points shifted the dominant Mode of Production. By analyzing Capitalism, a decentralized market economy that necessarily gravitates towards centralization in Monopolist Syndicates, we can predict that Socialism is the next step. Marx is correct.
"Do you believe our species will ever reach some form of enlightenment"
If there is anything history has taught me is that we repeat the same basic behavior over and over and have done so as far back as we can see. We are essentially very intelligent monkeys, obsessed with social status, manipulation, altruism and cooperation mixed with hostility and exploitation. I think the basic sociology of humans is baked into our DNA and the very nature of animal life. People have always imagined they can create some utopia on earth but it always ends up a failure because of the very nature of man and the impossibility of even defining a utopia for everyone.
The basic DNA of humans is that our ideas form from our Material Conditions, and the driver of this is the mode of production.
What "Utopias" are you referring to, here? The old, Utopian socialist of Owen's kind, or the modern, Marxist form of Socialism (which rejects the term "utopian")?
If you are Elon Musk it is looking amazing right now.
Yeah. At least until his yes-men high five him and slap him on the back on his way to board the deep space or deep sea vessel that he designed himself.
It feels like everything is going down the drain right now but when you look at the whole human history, this is probably just a hiccup and overall it will continue getting better in the long run.
And although we missed the mark and won't be able to stop climate change, humanity will adapt somehow and live on. Enlightenment I don't know, but better yes.
But for the near future, I don't see good things coming...
Yup. You look through history and FAR worse shit has happened in the past, even the recent past. The present though is what everyone has to deal with and that is your burden to bear best you can. Like you said, you see this sort of thing go in waves.
I know this sounds like a pat on the head but you also have to count your blessings in life and not just obsess over the things that are wrong with it or you'll always be miserable and never able to find any happiness. To say "everything is shit" is as unrealistic as saying "everything is wonderful".
I believe that nature will adapt too. Maybe everything is too fast. But once everything will die that cant live in this heat, there will still be nature that developes and mutates just to create a balance again.
And we will definetly survive somehow. Some poor people with redneck engineering but also rich people obviously. There is always a way. Even in chaos and destruction.
I think in one moment, when the capitalist world failed so hard that half of the world or more died because of it. The humanity will start to change to a better future. Like one solarpunk or such.
Eventually, the contradictions necessarily created by Capitalism, ie decentralized markets leading to centralized monopolist syndicates, will result in said syndicates being pulled from under the feet of the Bourgeoisie. Marx has remained correct in his predictions thus far. I don't think it will take half the world dying either for the US Empire to fall. This better future will be Socialist in nature, Solarpunk is more of an aesthetic than an ideology but this Socialist future will most likely heavily rely on solar power among other renewables.
I made a Read Theory, Darn it! introduction to Marxism reading list if you want to check it out.
I think solarpunk is more than a ahestetic, its a way to live without wasting more than you produce. Living in a more slow way and conscious.
I go to read your article, thogh!
Thanks for checking it out!
As for Solarpunk, I think it's certainly useful, but like any aesthetic-based movement it can be easily co-opted without a strong emphasis on theory. Namely:
- Why do we need Solarpunk?
- Who can push for Solarpunk?
- What is Solarpunk?
- How can we transition from our present conditions to Solarpunk?
- When can we transition to Solarpunk?
Those are a few questions (among others) that need to be consistent across the board for any real change to occur, simply having an image of a "good society" is Utopianism, and thus prone to failure like all previous Utopian movements.
I have an article for all those questions: https://lenses.alxd.org/
I skimmed the article, but I find it unsatisfactory. It focuses very much on imagining a better future, and that by doing so, we can accept and work towards it. This is fundamentally Utopian and Idealist, it doesn't emphasize a materialist foundation for how to get there beyond hoping and trying to modify the Superstructure deliberately so that the Base forms based on it. The problem with that mode of thinking is that the Base is constantly reinforcing the Superstructure projected from it, and thus the changes to the Superstructure you propose are going to be modified and even coopted by the Class in power, ie the Bourgeoisie, with little effort.
I like all the data and info you are telling here! Now I can think in a more structured way and logic about society structure. But you don't think that being able to imagine a better and sustainable future is not superstructure and all the solar-energy base, and solarpunk prompts of the literature, imagining other ways of production more anarchic and horizontal interactions between people and slow only with the necessary is not a base? It talks about means of production and relationship of production. It's already proven that better and more technology don't make us life better, but more fast and contaminated.
I know, I'm probably too idealistic, and I have to think in a more pragmatic way, but really learn about solarpunk what the first thing that let me hope in a better future in this word that is easier to think about the end of the word than the end of capitalism and I think that's important.
An imagined, hypothetical base is not a real, existing base, and thus it can't project the superstructure but be a part of an existing superstructure. That's why the existing base helps distort it and even coopt it.
Not for humans. Fascism can be recovered from, but climate change can't at this point until humans are gone.
Sure there will be lots of wars and famine but predicting human extinction as a result of climate change is a bit of a stretch. Even in a bad scenario where 99% of humanity dies off things could still turn back around, regrow and we try again for an advanced civilization in a couple millennia.
The question was whether or not things will get better, not extinction. We're unlikely to go extinct, but things will absolutely get worse for us.
Humans needing to be "gone" was hyperbole - we just need to not have enough people to be able to damage the climate any more.
In the long run, yes.
In the short term, no.
Eventually but I think society might need to collapse and rebuild in between, and that supporting this level of complex civilization isn't gonna be possible, nor IMO desirable.
This is not to say we would go back to being cavemen, just that society has less tech and energy at its disposal and less people.
I guess we could get there without collapse, but I have zero faith in any kind of degrowth moment despite agreeing with it ideologically. This would help us avoid much death and suffering but it doesn't seem to be priority for anyone in power.
Progression to Socialism is the alternative. We shouldn't advocate for collapse, but public ownership and central planning, which can facilitate green initiatives divorced from the profit motive.
All collapse will do is reset the clock, we will eventually run into the problems of late-stage Capitalism again once humanity runs the course of history again in hundreds or thousands of years.
Name one socialist/communist nation that hasn't been growth based industrialist economy? I think anything growth based is not gonna happen much longer, due to energy shortage, habitat loss, climate change, running out of critical minerals etc.
Sure I'm open for some degrowth socialism but don't really believe that's the way things gonna work out.
AES states historically plan production based on fulfilling needs, not profits. Profit is driven by consumption, so there is always an incentive to overproduce. Combined with a focus on green energy and efficient planning, Socialism is a necessity, and again, returning to earlier production methods will only result in repeating the historical development in Mode of Production.
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