Both Hilary Clinton and Elon Musk will be so mad
this post was submitted on 04 Nov 2024
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Every poll is a lie.
Vote.
Seriously. They all seem to say fucking different things. Useless bunch of shit.
Tbh, a Trump presidency just presents too much fuckery. I don't even really like Kamala, but I'm more comfortable with what the US looks like after a term with her than with what Trump put forth.
This is a vote in avoiding a very obvious detriment to our country.
As an Australian I hope HarrisWalz wins because trumpet is a potential threat to other countries and not all of you americans are piece of shit bigots
As another Australian, a vote against Trump also is a vote against the Palmer united party, Dutton and other c**ts.
I'm an American living in the Netherlands. The Dutch just elected a "conservative" goon named Geert Wilders several months ago. His rhetoric has been eerily similar to what's coming out of the UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Australia. Hell, Meloni in Italy has roots in the OG fascist party. They're getting too comfortable.
From what I can discern through my news apps (Associated Press and Reuters, these days), Palmer and Dutton are quite a vintage of proper cunts, but I argue the entire anglophone world is inundated with these authoritarian cocksuckers.
With sincerity, I hope that in your next election they're shoved into the trash compactor of history along with all the other bitch-made invertebrate right-wing lunatics that are pissing in everyone's coffee across the globe, just as we (hopefully) will do so with the Orange fucker today.
EDIT: Well, looks like we're fucked.
i am various types of shit pieces
Actually, most of us are not. But that silly Electoral College we have....makes it so that Democrats have to win by huge margins just to break even on that and on things like representation in the House.
Technically it's the other way around. The size of the electoral college is determined by the size of the House plus the Senate.
Now, the House was meant to increase in size as the population increased.
Now, since the mechanism for that increase wasn't spelled out in the constitution, there were heated arguments every 10 years over the new maps, but it came to a head in 1921.
Long story short, the permanent apportionment act of 1929 set the size of the House at 435 members. We've added two states since then, and the US population has tripped. But still it's 435.
Repealing that one law would fix several problems.
This is more about me and my skewed perspective than it is about Americans... but it's easy to get the impression that amongst every group of 10 seppos there are 5 hipsters and 5 MAGA-cap-wearing idiots. Logically I know that this is false but it's hard to supplant this image.
A while back I started watching a youtube channel about 4wd recovery or something in texas. They just seem like cool normal people, I'd be stoked to meet them while "wheeling" or what have you. The thing is, I'm pretty sure they would be Trump voters just because of where they are.
Would it be more accurate to suppose that maybe 2 thirds of people every where are just kind of normal people who aren't as obsessed with politics as I am, but they do tend to line up behind whatever party their friends, family, and forebears have?
Thanks. I may be garbage, trash, or cancer depending on the situation, but I do try to not be a bigot. I'm also thankful it isn't very hard.
not all of you americans are piece of shit bigots
Australia's kindest affirmation.
I feel like there was a missed opportunity to invoke the immortal diss "shit-cunts".
Aww, thank you bogginfriend
Weird because the last time I looked at fivethirtyeight's simulated election outcomes based on polling data it was 51:48 Trumps favor and now its 52 for Trump
Interestingly, that site is owned by ESPN and at some point in time it was archived by ABC. Why it was put to use for this is strange.
It's been a polling aggregate since at least before the 2016 election. There is also 270towin which showed a clear Trump victory in their No-Tossup-Polling map until a few days ago, now it shows a tossup because PA polled so evenly.
Then there is betting odds for the US Presidential election, all of which favor Trump by a landslide:
Keep in mind that the more wrong these betting odds are, the more money they will lose, so there is monetary incentive for them to be unbiased.
I'm going to be real with you all. I'm scared of whats about to happen. The only way I would predict a Harris victory is if a huge wave of undecided voters appeared who are outside of the polling target audience. E.G. Generation Z, the elderly who rely on Medicaid, Disabled or Impaired, Hispanics, and others en masse.
FYI, if you see one outlier poll, ignore it. It doesn’t mean anything.
Trust the aggregate and realize there is a margin of error. If you vote, you will be the margin of error.
All the vote predictions are inching to a 50 50 split. And pollsters are using AI to simulate real people and using that in their models.
I'm curious if the split will actually be this close, but everything screams that the models are not right.
And then the moment you see some smaller pollsters who actually did the legwork, you see deviation from the 50 50 split.
But still... The call to vote is excellent, cause last time around some states where decided by less than 15K votes.
I have yet to meet a Trump supporter who is a real person. I'm convinced they're brain worms ina meat suit
I've personally seen them drive down a major highway looking like absolute dangers to society veering at lane edges and honking horns with either no licence plate or covered plates with crazy flags and horrible stickers in a state that will invariably vote blue (not California). They exist and they are not aware of how detrimental to themselves if they win.
I've yet to get a clear answer on how they correct for the fact that no one answers the phone or wastes time talking to pollsters for free. I keep reading that " they take it into account" but not the methods used.
Its worth searching it up, theres many recent stories detailing the methods.
They use a representative sample by reaching out to random voters or posting ads online in social spaces. Once they have enough people to make representative groups to match the population of the state or nation, maybe a few thousand people, they then ask them questions.
They tend to use the same people repeatedly, as they are more reliable in answering, and some of them are regularly paid small amounts for their time.
The polls are essentially tracking a group of people who thought it was worth their time to answer polls, which I am not a part of, and noone I know is a part of.
Edit to add: one new thing this election cycle is that a new weight has been added to account for party affiliation, which wasnt used before.
https://goodauthority.org/news/pollsters-are-weighting-surveys-differently-in-2024/
Agreed.
Ultimately, polls are simply unable to account for the demographic of "doesn't participate in advance polling", and Anthony they attempt to do to account for that glaring weakness is guesswork.
Probably also looking at previous elections to compensate.
But the simple fact is that the repubs lost way more of their voterbase to covid than the Dems did. So if you use proportional models, there is a good chance they are off by double the excess deaths in the republican party... And that is a lot.
I sincerely hope to God that’s true, America deserves better than the oligarchy trash taking over it. The real fight begins after this election, the Supreme Court needs an overhaul and the electoral college needs to go
TBH, I feel like there's an oligarchy controlling both parties. I voted for Harris, but I think I just voted for the less bat-shit crazy side. The billionaires are still going to get richer, corporations will continue to consolidate, middle-class will keep dwindling, and common people will keep getting poorer and have less say.
Dems win in areas with greater populations, which is why they have to listen to the voters. You’re right though, but tbh it’s a balancing act. I am the type to believe in “healthy” corporations, so there’s that. Uncontrolled and unregulated entities will always seek to centralize power and resources, doesn’t matter what type they are
I was pretty bummed to hear mark Cuban wants Lina Khan fired. Cubans been a huge spokesperson for Kamala and insists they talk often.
Edit: here's an article recently about it where he tries to be the "I'm just saying" guy.
I mean Cuban has some redeeming qualities but he is still a gold hording billionaire. Linda Khan is a threat to his and all his billionaire buddies' status to being a billionaire, so it's not really too surprising he wants her gone.
And this is what frustrates me about billionaires, this pathological fear that they have about losing anything, especially money. These people are addicts to money and power. And when someone or some institution gets in the way of them getting their next money fix they will do whatever they can to tear them down. And there are many many people in this world that enable this addiction they have, they praise it and encourage them to do more. People like Khan are seen as 'narcs' out to ruin their fun. Fuck that.
I would love to see a nationwide intervention and help these poor souls break this dangerous and deadly addiction they have.
I had really hoped that he would be one of the ones who could rationalize living the rest of his life as a simple millionaire or something.
You are right about the knee-jerk reaction to avoiding losing even a bit of wealth.
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