this post was submitted on 09 Sep 2024
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[–] [email protected] 51 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

~~His older model at~~ 538 has things tighter with the coin toss slightly weighted toward Harris.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/

Whether it’s 55/45 or 65/35, we’re still basically talking about the same thing. This race is neck and neck, and whoever gets the turnout edge will win. We’re talking about fractions of percents that are at play, which is why these odd are a coin toss.

Edit: it looks like 538’s model is new, and Silver doesn’t like it or the guy behind it.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election

[–] [email protected] 29 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Different model, same website. Silver got to keep his model and took it elsewhere after departing from 538.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago

TIL. I thought they forked it. I didn’t realize 538’s was all new.

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[–] [email protected] 180 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Abolish the Electoral Collage.

[–] [email protected] 88 points 2 months ago (6 children)

That ain’t gonna happen.

That said, we can make it irrelevant with The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It’s 77% the way there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

Singular prints only

[–] [email protected] 58 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Or Electoral College even.

I would like to see what an Electoral Collage looks like.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 2 months ago (1 children)

You don't have one in your Democracy Scrapbook?

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (1 children)

This is what we should've spent every waking moment doing since 2016. Why do we distract so easily...

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