Technology

You've been able to buy a quantum computer for years, so trough of disillusionment.

although DARPA has them, so probably making our way through the trough of disillusionment.

DARPA feasibility studies:

https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/24/darpa_quantum_computer_benchmarking_papers/

available quantum computers:

https://quantumzeitgeist.com/how-to-buy-a-quantum-computer/

You're not going to hear a lot about them the same way people didn't hear about personal computers back in the '60s,, but there are and have been many companies consistently working on improving the accuracy and power of quantum computers.

regular computers were around for decades before being successfully developed into personal machines with commercial utility, quantum computers are kind of in that zone roght mow, big room sized things that have a couple cubits.

but they are real and available, and the field is constantly in development

Domt fkrget about quantum tunneling past the activation barrier

Pretty sure QC is down at 0,0 right now. They haven't gotten it to work in the way it's been envisioned yet. The theory is there, but until something is quantifiably working, there's basically no hype behind it.

I think this graph doesn't have to move left to right, it can also move right to left. On several occasions quantum computing started to move up the "tech trigger" slope, but without any functional applications for the current technology the point slid back down to the left again.

I think the graph needs at least one more demarcated region. After "tech trigger" there needs to be "real world applications". Without real world applications you can never progress past the tech trigger phase.

In chemistry this is the equivalent of Energy of Activation. If a reaction can't get over the big first step, then it can't proceed on to any secondary steps

I know they won't be something everyone has in their house

That's what they said about non-quantum computers 80 years ago.

One problem with QC is that besting classical computers has been a moving target, improving exponentially for many years while QC was being researched. It's going to be a long, slow climb up the slope of enlightenment as it reveals its potential.

Somewhere around 0,0 or 1,1

There are amazing possibilities in the theoretical space, but there hasn't been enough of a breakthrough on how to practically make stable qubits on a scale to create widespread hype

I dunno if anyone except scientists and security people think about quantum computing at the moment.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

I'd say it's still at the beginning of the curve. At the technology trigger phase. I don't hear about it as much as I would expect

I think AI is falling into disillusionment and Quantum Computers feel at least 10 years behind.

I personally think we’re on the slope of enlightenment - quantum computing no longer attracts as much hype as it used to, but in the background, there’s a lot of interesting developments that genuinely might be very important.