1
Kremlin prepares Russians for 10-year war with complete destruction of Ukraine - ISW
(newsukraine.rbc.ua)
Just not a good decade to work for Addidas.
this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2024
1 points (100.0% liked)
Ukraine
8068 readers
58 users here now
News and discussion related to Ukraine
*Sympathy for enemy combatants in any form is prohibited.
*No content depicting extreme violence or gore.
Donate to support Ukraine's Defense
Donate to support Humanitarian Aid
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
Ah, but in 8 years Russia is going to attack NATO countries I keep hearing here in the EU
They are currently fucking radio signals in Kaliningrad affecting NATO country communications. They have also been found responsible for recent factory fires and localised attacks, not to mention the assassinations on NATO and EU soil.
Having a 10 year plan does not preclude additional actions.
Depends a lot on what NATO does. If Trump pulls out like he says then it could easily happen.
I wouldn't say easily. If the russians were crazy enough to try that they'd find out that EU itself has pretty decent armed forces combined and should they attack on any EU country, let's say Estonia, they'd find out pretty fast on what it means when there's no political bullshit limiting on attacks to the russian soil. One of Putins villas is 30 minutes (give or take) away for handful of countries to pay a visit with a very modern fighter jet. To Moscow that's a bit less.
They just don't have the hardware to protect their troops, command sites, service locations and everything else needed to even attempt anything.
NATO without the US is barely bigger than Russia's military. And if some portion of the countries held back forces for their own defense, it's very possible that Russia could pick countries off one at a time as it has a vastly bigger military than any single NATO country outside of the US, especially the ones it would likely want to start with in the Baltics.
So it all comes down to how unified NATO is and how strong the response is from all together. It's not a foregone conclusion with many of the right wing pro-putin governments coming into power around Europe and potentially soon in the US.
Bullshit. My country has fewer people in total than many of the metropols in western europe and still we have the most powerful artillery in the western europe. Finland traditional artillery, on own our land, is almost close enough to hit Moscow and we have enough barrels and trained personnel to use them to cover pretty much for the whole 1300km of our border. Estonia isn't far behind of us.
That combined with the very capable air force form Finland, Sweden and Estonia covers the northmost corner of the map, marines included. Below that is Poland who aren't fucking around either and next to them is Ukraine. We've already had this fight in the 1940s, other countries a bit later, and there's absolutely no question if there's enough manpower to keep the border where it is right now.
There's no way Russia could gain any land north of Poland borders even without any EU-wide co-operation and should Germany, France and UK join the fight the chances are pretty much nonexistent. They might take a village or two close to the border after turning it into rubble, but full scale war in EU wouldn't last too long.
Current situation in Ukraine is a complex matter on many fronts, politics very much included, but it's vastly different from a direct attack on any of EU members. The hardware alone is vastly superior on whatever Soviet remains we've seen on Ukraine for the last couple of years.
Just based on the numbers on the play it's just stupid to spread the propaganda. Maybe you get paid for it, maybe you're just playing as a devil's advocate, but the reality just doesn't align with russia attacking on the parts of global west europe.
I'm not going to argue with you, Finland is pretty badass, and hence probably not one of Putin's first targets. But I can promise you that Putin has more artillery units than you. I know this because they have more than all of NATO excluding the USA. They have more aircraft, more tanks, more everything than you. Now the last time you guys went head to head, you inflicted 10:1 losses on them.. Which means you have a good chance if it happens again... But like I said, I think Russia learned it's lesson and will stick to the Baltics, Georgia, Moldova, until it gets strong enough to do Poland.
Whatever Russia does won't happen in a vacuum. Of they would attack the Baltics everyone knows what's up and it immediately becomes existential for all countries in Europe. Especially former warshaw pact countries.
Soviet Union had a pretty significant army on their disposal and they were a force to really pay attention to. Russia in it's current state is a poor imitation of that. Current Russian military had 14 000 tanks (rough estimates) and 2/3 of them is currently rusting away on some field in Ukraine, most of that was ww2 era stuff, which is a sitting duck on a literal pair of fighters on a ATV with a javelin or similar as we've seen.
On artillery russia has been shipping their own ammunition and barrels from the 40's back to the front lines from North Korea. Depending on which source you'll like to cite they've lost either almost all of what they got or everything they've had few times over. The picture is pretty similar across the board.
Air force hasn't really done anything on the front beyond bombing civil intrastructure and getting destroyed by a cardboard drones from the Ukraine. Of course any kind of mig or shukoi is a sever threat to anything operating on their reach, but their performance hasn't really shined on the current front where the opponent has been either lacking resources or have had hands tied to polictics across the continent.
Ukraine stopped the original attack with a handful of troops and they've been more and more successfull as the training with experience is getting more and more effective. If Russia can be stopped with pretty much with their own equipment from the soviet era what do you think will happen if they try to attack someone who's been preparing on that since 1945?
Current state in Europe is a very bad excuse on what we should have, but even that, with 60 years of preparation, is well enough to counter anything what former ghost of the Soviet Union has to throw against EU. China, India and the rest of global south are the real threat and if things escalate to global war then it's a whole different scenario, but Russia taking over europe is not a part of that.
All of this is true. But Russia is still outproducing the rest of Europe by a large margin. They are failing in Ukraine only because of extensive support from NATO (more than 70% of which is provided by the USA), starting long before the war began. Ukraine would not have been able to repel the invasion without it.
I don't deny that a united NATO can stop Russia. But Russia can beat a divided one country by country if it's allowed to happen. And there are many in Europe and the USA working towards that.
But Russia is still outproducing the rest of Europe by a large margin
citation please.
Unfortunately I don't think I have a single source for this. You would need to read many articles, watch YouTube videos of people who have researched it. But it's true. And not by a small margin either. For example, for artillery production, or for example tanks, Russia annually produces more tanks than the entire inventory of any country in Europe. It is claimed 2100 tanks total, of which 200 are new ones whereas for example the largest fleets in European countries, built up over decades are only a few hundreds
Fair enough. I'm not particularly satisfied with the youtube military size comparison video you previously cited. Much of its data is incomplete, misleading, and unsourced. 2 glaring examples are that Russia's aircraft carrier is listed as in service when it hasn't been for 90% of it's existence and is in dry dock right now possibly getting repaired for the 12th time, and that it only lists 2 variants light attack aircraft (F16/F35) when there are absolutely more variants in both Russia/Europes arsenal. It screams 'unfounded propaganda' to me.
Additionally, what is being manufactured by Russia is clearly insufficient to keep up with their losses. New vehicle manufactures annually account for 1-2 months of losses at their current rate. That is 1/6th of what they NEED it to be just to continue this war let alone another one and their stores of usable ancient vehicles are almost completely gone. Comparisons of this already insufficient manufacturing rate to those of Europe not geared to a wartime economy are unreasonable.
Finally, your whole premise of 'a divided Europe would struggle against Russia' is kinda significantly undermined by how well a woefully under-equipped and sized military fared against Russia's assault in the beginning let alone nowadays with support. Also consider the change in fighting strategy Europe has. They do not care about Russia having 5x the artillery guns with a max 80km range when they have 5x the aircraft to precision strike from positions hundreds of kms away.
Regardless the whole concept of ' divided Europe' is a Russian fantasy. Every member nation of NATO signed on specifically due to the threat of Russia. To think any nation wouldn't contribute everything it absolutely could to put down an Orc uprising is to be delusional. Political stupidity of a couple member nations of late be damned. They would still join in lest the obvious consequence of nobody coming to help them when it is their turn become realized.
;tldr unless you can make a concretely sourced, supported argument for your claim in spite of all the evidence to the contrary this is fear-mongering propaganda and must cease.
Yes the Admiral Kuznetsov is a massive piece of shit and shouldn't be counted anywhere ;-). I would happily take an alternative source if you've got one. And yes, Russia is losing more than it's making. Which means we are on a good path if we can sustain it. My only fear is that with a Trump win and far right parties winning all over Europe, we won't be able to.
I will take issue with Ukraine being woefully underequipped, though. They weren't worse off than many European nations and were far better off than the Baltic states are now. Many people are totally ignorant of the large amounts of NLAWs and ATGM's pumped to Ukraine by the west before the invasion. Without these I think it would have been a very different story. I have a link to some numbers somewhere in my history.
As for a divided Europe, it is a fantasy for now, but the trends are heading in that direction, largely due to Russian disinformation efforts. Unfortunately Putin gets a chance to fuck us up at every election while he will be there until he dies. So time is on his side in that way.
Russia's great strength is also a big weakness. It's size gives population, and resources, but also makes it very hard to defend.
True, but given how timid NATO has been about attacking Russia so far, I doubt they'd have to defend their own territory much.
Nukes.... It's a big deterrent... they're such a big deal that either every country should have them. Or no country should be allowed to have them... Everyone should be timid about attacking anyone that has nukes
Yep
some outrageous crazy statement about the war
it's from Medvedev, as usual
Can the press just stop paying attention to him? He doesn't hold any power, he gets to make no decisions, he was chosen to be Putin's seat-warmer in 2008 because he was considered to be a safe choice, with no real ambitions and was extremely easy to reel in. His position on the "security council" means nothing, he was put there specifically so he'd be in a hostile environment, being a random guy between the military, the FSB and the intelligence service. Not that the council itself is much more than a Putin's puppet. He became the biggest hawk as soon as the war started just in case anyone recalls some of his more "liberal" initiatives. In reality, there's only 3 things he's in charge of: a bottle, a shot glass and his telegram account.
Couldn't agree more. Medvedev is just a miserable ex-"liberal" (and is probably now-an-alcoholic) trying to find his place in the Putin's wartime system after his reputation was killed by Putin's "castling" in 2012 and the film "He Is Not Dimon to You" in 2017. Nobody takes him seriously anymore in Russia.
"Mankind must put an end to war, or war will put an end to mankind" --John F. Kennedy
"In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends." -- Martin Luther King
Its ok, Trump will end all wars when he gets elected.
Yes, I did nearly crash my car laughing when I heard that.
Is that Boris Trump you're talking about?
"let's go Morty, just a quick ten-year in-and-out military operation"
Laughable really. Russia has at most 2 years at the going rate of net depletion before completely running out of armour stores. Thinking you'd last another 8 without tanks, APCs, or artillery is crazy.
IMO this is them trying to manipulate a better peace deal and boy are they going to be disappointed.
Yeah and that would be dragging the whole army to be killed in Ukraine, leaving russia undefended lol.
I think mid 2025 will be the real breaking point, with winter 2025 bringing the hammer down if it havent happened before.
Yeah and that would be dragging the whole army to be killed in Ukraine, leaving russia undefended lol.
But the irony imo is that this wouldn't actually be a huge problem. Who would actively want to attack Russia?
Despite what they constantly claim, Nato really isn't interested in a conflict. And China already gets the resources they want at huge discounts, so why bother with another front when they have set their sights on Taiwan? That only leaves some internal minorities acting up, but it seems to me that those are the same people they are throwing into the meatgrinder that is the current conflict in Ukraine.
Japan and Finland have some territory claims to press. Pretty soon that might start happening.
NATO is a Defence cooperation, NATO don't want to attack anybody. At all.
Chine would like Manchuria, Japan some lost islands, and why not say Russia attacking Russia in a civil war.
Unlikely due to their constitution, but Japan has contested islands Russia gobbled up at the end of WW2 that they might like to reassert ownership of if it is easy enough.
Yeah i guess that might be the most likely candidate for an opportunistic takeover.
Although their navy is the one thing Russia might not bother (or be able to) send to Ukraine. So that would still stay in the area, making it less likely.
I mean, this is Medvedev talking. Anything coming out of his mouth, the only thing you can reasonably do is to mop it up.
Damn and I thought my estimates were bad. Going from 3 days to 10 years is a pretty big difference and that's assuming they can even achieve their objectives in 10 years which seems doubtful.
Putin needs to work on his time management skills. I've heard there's a good place in the Hague that can help him with that, it's called ICJ.
"When will you be done with the report?" "I guess by next Friday."
Ten years later...
What was it? Special Weekend Operation?
3 days to take Kiev, if I remember correctly...sine it's been a bit longer than 3 days .
Dude you’ve been doing this for 2 years and the front line is still a 30 minute drive from the border.
Who can say what might happen if Trump wins, but while a stalemate followed by a peace agreement where Ukraine still loses Crimea and etc seems possible, a complete military victory over all of Ukraine seems like pure fantasy. Y’all can prepare the Russian people for whatever you want, but if you can’t take the land, it’s not gonna help.
Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part of his plan. If he conquers and stays, he will face a determined insurgency. If he installs a puppet and leaves, they will be quickly deposed. If he thinks to keep only part, he will have to keep fighting for it.
An insurgency that's had years to store weapons and make plans instead of 3 days.
Yeah, who knows. When Biden stopped sending support for six months, Ukraine had it rough, they were backtracking (they still are one some fronts), lost Avdivka and other fronts. Germany announced they will halve the support, fascism in EU is also rising, which means less support. It's a battle of attrition and if enough support is withdrawn, it doesn't bode well for Ukraine. On the other hand, if there is substantial support for years to come, Russia might have big problems. In any case, a bigger breakthrough on some front might make a huge difference and tip the special operation in one's favor.
Germany announced they will halve the support
No. While that is a popular narrative in media living of enragement bait and doom scrolling, Germany has announced nothing the like. They have a premilinary budget plan with a fixed 4 billion reserved for Ukraine, the exact same amount that was in the preliminary budget last year. That is with a higher budget for their military from which a lot of Ukraine support came directly and with Ukraine now getting 50 billion covered by the interests of Russian money frozen.
Biden was sneaking aid through while congress sat on its hands.
Yeah, minor stuff. I'm not saying Biden is at fault, it was clearly GOP. It merely happened during his time.
And the Russian army is facing the same problem that Germany and Napoleon faced in their invasion of Ukraine. When you gain territory, unfortunately you only end up with some bombed out towns in Ukraine.
Napoleon tried to blitz all the way to Moscow. He even took the city. But you just end up with a frozen wasteland. Ukraine is only valuable because of the people there. There's nothing else to take.
False, its soil is incredibly fertile and their agricultural exports influence food prices across the globe.
That's beside the point though.
But you can't loot that. There's nothing that can be taken or enjoyed by a Russian oligarch. No one is excited about having a dacha in a Ukrainian wheat field.
I did say it was beside the point. The invasion was an unforced error caused by the fact that Putin has surrounded himself with far right yes men. He's fucked himself, and he's dead if he admits it. His fear of color revolutions is slowly but surely being made into a self fulfilling prophecy. Stalin was a paranoid too, just Russia being Russia.
view more: next ›