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A Jul 2 poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos had Kamala Harris losing to Donald Trump by 1 point (42% to 43%) if she were to replace President Biden. The only Democrat who would hypothetically beat Trump according to the poll is Michelle Obama, who would have an 11-point advantage over the former president. However, the former First Lady has expressed several times over the years that she will not be running for president.
If he loses there won’t be anyone to pass the torch to.
If he runs, he loses. Thats the reality all of the data we have paints for us.
He passes the torch like, maybe next week at the latest, or Trump is the next President.
Biden wasn't capable of beating Trump before the debate; he's less capable after.
It's interesting, this farce and display of pride and ego. All Biden has to do is one of two things:
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Go all- in. Set up another debate. Make sure he's top of his game. Go full Dark Brandon and absolutely wipe the floor. Then apologize AFTER doing this for his previous bad performance. Do this right, reaaally sell it, and he'll come out the other side in a better position. Do it wrong and it'll hurt his campaign even more. Trump doesn't even have to show up. The point is giving Biden the same opportunity to step up. Toss in some late night talk shows with hard questions. When you have trust to gain back you have to work twice as hard.
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Be a leader and talk to us all. Put forth a nominee to take his place. Work with them on the campaign trail and truly ask all of us to step up for our Nation, as one.
AND YET we appear to be getting some silly asinine middle-of-the-road choice.
I like Biden for many of the policies and steps he and his administration have taken these last four years. They've done good and sometimes even great things, and made mistakes and done bad things too. Over all, he's been far from the worst President. Now though is the time to step aside as a leader, or rise into that position and take control.
He can't "fix this" the same way he hid it.
The catch 22 he is in, is that he has to very publicly demonstrate to us that the debate was a fluke. The problem, is performances like his Stephanopoulos interview simply affirm the conclusion that he's a deeply out of touch grumpy old man who can keep track of his own thoughts for the duration of a conversation. His: recovery' interview, I mean it wasn't as bad that the debate, but it did still dig the hole deeper.
So if you can go 'show' how this isn't a problem because you make the problem worse, you have to concede.
The reason is ageism.
Want to "win overwhelmingly"? Stop saying you're not as bad as the Toupee. Duh. There's at least 300 million people in the US that fit that statement. Don't tell us to vote against the Other Guy, tell us why we should vote for you, specifically. You had some trivial wins in the past year? Advertise them. You have some plans for working class Americans that you'll pretend never existed the second the election is over? Promise them!
If you want us to vote for a specific person, tell us why that person is worth voting for. If the strategy remains "I'm not as bad as the Other Guy", you might as well just put a blank line next to the D on the ballot.
Same thing goes for all you centrist supporters who automatically assume everyone who wants a better candidate than Biden is secretly a Russian troll who will be voting for the Toupee.
Ironic coming from someone who just pimped his Republican challenger to blow off 2 other Democratic candidates, same dangerous idiotic move a certain presidential candidate tried some years ago.
Does DNC have any other strategies?
Heh. Thats a good point.
DNC: IF YOU CHALLENGE BIDEN IN THE PRIMARY YOU ARE THE PROBLEM!! NO DEBATES!! WE'LL SHUT YOU THE FUCK DOWN MARYANNE WILLIAMSON!!!
Also DNC: Did I do a fucky-wuckey? Oops.
I saw a Prius with both Kennedy and Marianne stickers in the back.
No, I don't want to come over for dinner.
No she couldn’t.
This is simply not true. Its this close because half the population has been raped by education defunding and copious amounts of right wing propaganda. Allowing people and entities to control large swathes of media networks has been disastrous. Repealing the Fairness Act has been a fucken tragedy. It could be anybody, literally. Throw Harris up there and watch the machine get to work. This isn't a mystery. This isn't about age. Its about the death throws of the Republican Party, and them ending democracy to hold onto power. Ya'll are eating it up and being divided. Just keep drinking that juice, I guarantee this push has republicans somewhere behind it.
Could you describe the push you're referring to? We all saw the debate, then the poll drop, then the calls for Biden to step aside. Which of those events have republicans behind them? We all just want the best chance at beating Trump, and many of us think that's not Biden. I don't think the media is to blame for reporting on what each congressperson is saying -- that's kinda their job, and that's whats going to get clicks -- but I do think they are to blame for the opinion articles that are saying "I'm not voting, you shouldn't either." Obviously that is horseshit. If Biden's the nominee, you gotta vote for him. But I struggle to think that the drama surrounding Biden's candidacy is somehow sparked by some hidden republicans pulling the strings. The dude just performed really poorly in a debate that he himself wanted, and then he doubled down with some awful awful soundbites about him being okay with Trump winning, as long as he tried his best.
Its like dude, have some fuckin awareness. The stakes aren't low enough for you to be self satisfied with doing your best.
The focus on Biden's age at the 11th hour is what is strange. We knew the dude was ancient, shit we expected Harris to have to take the torch mid term. But now its too old? Right before the elections? Now is the time? I dont think so bud. None of this new and it could not come at a worse time for Democrats. I've seen a fucken dizzying amount on Biden's age, but none on how Trump sounded like a martian lunatic? Something smells fishy to me boss.
It's not his age, it's his behavior. And he's been doing this shit for a couple years now. Pretending it's just his age is more disingenuous gaslighting.
I mean, the age thing has been a concern for a while, but Democratic messaging really played it down, and the State of the Union was also a pretty good reliever in that sense. But the debate was a lot lot worse than the State of the Union, and that just completely shattered the illusion that Biden is in command, in terms of not only his own health but in the election, itself.
You're asking why now? Well, the debate is what sparked this. But now is the time because we are afraid of what a Trump presidency could mean, especially after the Supreme Court decisions last week. Now is the time because the debate just exposed Biden's greatest electability weakness (not, necessarily, his ability to make decisions based an a talented and experienced group of advisors). And now is the time because we think he won't win, and that this whole time the United States have been asking for a younger candidate, so why don't we give them one?
I don't think you really need a Republican conspiracy behind all that to explain why there is such panic in the democratic party right now. But thanks for answering my question genuinely.
There's just no clear alternative. We don't have someone to rally under even if we get rid of Biden. Maybe it is the right thing cause I know I dont want Biden either. Its just a dangerous gamble with all that is at stake either way you slice it. Which is why I'm questioning the move so hard. There's no clear alternate candidate, doing this is very likely to fracture democrats even more. Maybe I do have a tinfoil hat on, but all these fears are very valid. I dont trust Republicans with even a single one of my pubic hairs and I know something like this is not below them.
The only actual alternative is Harris. I wouldn’t guess anyone having a panic attack right now will listen to me but:
- she’s the only one who can legally use the campaign funds
- setting up a new campaign takes months
- ads have largely already been reserved
- passing over a qualified black woman for [insert the imaginary candidate of your dreams] would piss off a pretty key constituency (especially in Georgia and Michigan)
- the media and Republicans will have a motherfucking feeding frenzy destroying an untested candidate with no experience on the national stage
Am I happy about this? Nope. But those facts are just being hand-waived away while people ignore every risk to replacing Biden and, on top of that, the risk of replacing him with their favorite.
You make reasonable points, but here are a couple light rebuttals which ultimately amount to my idea that the risks of replacing Biden outweigh the risks of keeping him on the ticket.
I'm skeptical of the candidate even having to set up a full campaign, because they'll have the name recognition already. If it's the result of 5 debates between younger Democrats including Harris, that is going to be blasted on every news channel. Not to mention, a giant campaign isn't exactly helping Biden. The negative press alone from them trying to shield him probably set him back enough that he'll lose.
Regarding the ads having already been reserved, I won't pretend to know how any of that works, but wouldn't you think that would also hinder Trump? As all his ads would be toward Biden and not the candidate? He would somehow have to pivot his attacks. Harris is easier for Trump to attack, because he's been doing it for years now, along with Fox News. Regardless, I don't find much sway in that argument , just because I'm not sure ads are really going to do much to swing moderate or independent voters.
I don't think the public is politically aware enough to realize Harris is the "next in line," as you infer, so I really don't think they'd be alienating black or female voters.
(Side note: I think the whole idea of Harris being the one to be "passed over" is such a bullshit modern political take. Just like how it was Hillary's turn, or Biden's turn. That kinda shit is what got us here now, instead of choosing the best candidate we always seem to choose the one who should be, or who is due next. Really fucking frustrating.)
Finally, the media is already having a feeding frenzy on Biden, a well-tested candidate with lots of experience. He is down in the polls in swing states, he's getting grilled by his own party, and his numerous attempts of damage control have done little to assuage the concerns from congresspeople, but I'd also guess voters, as well. I'm sorry but I just don't think Biden can beat Trump, and I think he should step aside for either Harris or, in my preference, let the DNC shake it out with some debates.
I don’t think either us are wrong since we’re in unprecedented territory. Almost any scenario could happen. My main concern is that calling for a different candidate is easy and no one is addressing the hard parts of a campaign and building a winning coalition.
The ad buys for September and October are probably just reserved at this point with content to come later. There’s probably lots of flexibility for presidential campaigns but, like any project, a last minute change with no new deadline will make it all worse.
And whether we like it or not, plenty of people support Kamala Harris. And not just her. All the potential candidates. We’re all imagining our fave will get the nod but only one will. People say Gavin Newsome but he had an affair with his campaign manager’s wife. How is that going to play with voters? No idea. Maybe Trump is so bad, it’s a footnote but maybe it makes enough suburbanites disgusted. I don’t know.
Yeah, I agree, although I suspect both of us are wrong rather than neither of us being wrong haha
Gotcha about the ad buys though. We'll just have to see what happens I guess. Bottom line though, vote blue no matter who.
Remember after Jan 6 when Republicans overwhelmingly were shocked and disgusted eith trump and publicly decried his actions, and then in a few weeks they basically sucked his dick? Why do democrats publicly want to show dissatisfaction and disdain amongst their own party and they stick to it so the media gets stuck in this endless loop while we jsut had a political debate where the Republicans top nominee (which was publicly trashed by his party for Jan 6th) said the absolute worst will happen if the country elects him?
So much in fighting on the dem side with a guckin dictator in waiting for the Republicans. Get your shit together dems
So what you're advocating is figuratively sucking the candidates dick no matter what terrible thing he does (aka blind worship), like republicans do?
And that would make you different than them, how exactly?
Not really. Let's say people don't vote at all because they don't like this guy or that guy. Who benefits? The Republicans at this stage. Let's say a real third party surfaces. Hypothetically let's say AOC. Who benefits? Republicans because now a democratic vote is split among 2 candidates. Brain worm Kennedy won't split the republican vote to benefit the democrats because there's no cult of worm following for him.
I hate to say to vote for the lesser of two evils. Both sides have done wrong. But personally I'll not vote for an outright dictator-to-be in trump. And that is for this moment in time mind you. These are supposedly the best candidate these 2 parties offer and they both suck. But again personally I feel we can work something out with democrats while Republicans have a single agenda, theirs.