Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
Nothing against Michelle, but I highly doubt she wants to run for POTUS.
A spouse of a former president running against Trump? That can't possibly go wrong.
In polling there's a piece of wisdom that journalists don't listen to. Ignore the outlier polls. If there's multiple polls saying one thing and one poll saying something else then there's far more likely to be something wrong with the one outlier. But clickbait machine goes brrrrt.
https://am11.mediaite.com/med/cnt/uploads/2024/07/Screen-Shot-2024-07-02-at-5.06.44-PM.jpg
Okay looks like Clickbait Machine goes brrrt for a different reason here. The upshot is that many respondents skipped the follow on questions. So assuming any amount of campaigning is competently done then the 12% Don't know/skip category is likely to shrink closer to the 4% of the Biden-Trump match up. Then you can see that 40% of the respondents just answered Trump no matter what. In fact the Democrats percentage goes down nearly in lockstep with, Don't Know/Skipped. So, in my opinion, there's a really good chance the Democrats could actually pick up most of that column for Beshear or Pritzker.
Just stop with this GOP-astroturf "replace Biden" campaign.
I've been slamming Russian/tankie "both are bad" commenters for a while here; check my comment history before you judge my response here:
I don't know about a campaign but the sentiment is hardly astroturfed. A lot of leftist (not liberal or tankie, actual leftist) pundits and influencers think Biden is a bad look for normies and certainly doesn't energize voters. This includes people from all varieties, who are not always in agreement otherwise; like Emma Vigeland from Majority Report (and probably more people from that show), Hasan Piker, Vaush, Cenk from TYT... Whatever you may think about any or all of them, they're all in agreement on Biden being replaced.
These people are hardly part of an echo chamber, they regularly come at odds with one another, and none of them are part of an astroturf, and definitely not from GOP.
Note that all of these people would still advocate for voting Biden as long as he's the candidate. But their concern is about voter turnout after his horrible performance in that debate. This is a country who elected W. Bush, because they'd like to have a beer with him. How they look and come off unfortunately matters, sometimes more than the content of their messages and even accomplishments.
Your citation of Hasan as a non-tankie made you immediately lose all credibility.
~~Hasan has dumb positions and goes a bit too hard on "america bad" but calling him a tankie is disingenuous. also even if you disagree, saying that negates all the other things i said would just be bad faith.~~
oops, sorry i just checked your comment history. funny you should mention credibility.
This is what many don’t understand. JFK won his election because he was handsome and Nixon tanked that debate he was sick. This is a similar scenario in that Biden looks like shit and everyone can tell except Biden. He needs to accept that his age has caught up to him.
I am always skeptical when I hear leftists echoing the same talking points as far right hacks. These are folks I would expect to be in unison on this point. They are ideologues. That's fine, that's their job.
Ideologically, the points are well taken. I too wish for a more progressive president. I'm not excited about Biden, either. I can live through four more years of Biden if that's what's to come.
Beating Trump is most important.
I'm of the firm belief that Biden can do that (he's already done it once), and that he is the best situated to do it. That's based on the conventional wisdom. Yes, it's the same conventional wisdom that lost the election for Hillary in 2016, but also won it for Biden in 2020. Biden's campaign apparatus is in place and switched on. He's on the ballot. He's got the backing. To try and change that now seems insurmountable.
i think you missed the point of my comment:
this is not about how progressive he has or hasn't been. he's actually been more progressive than a lot of presidents; honestly i thought the stuff he did for unions was impossible in the US.
unfortunately that's not necessarily a great force for voting in the US. again, people voted for W, and it was not for his policies. plus things like that aren't very widely or consistently publicized. and people have a short memory and attention span.
this is about how he looks and presents himself. and the reality is that he doesn't look old. he looks dead. there are people older than him that look and act like they might have been his children.
and also: beating TFG is most important. but that's why people on the left think he should step down. you may be of the firm belief that he can do it, but polls don't reflect the same confidence. you might believe the polls or not, but that's what we have.
also he's not officially the candidate until the convention. so he's not on the ballot yet. that's why people are asking for a switch.
Is the GOP actually the ones wanting us to replace Biden at the moment? If anything, there's a very good reason to believe the GOP would want Biden to remain: he's a quite unpopular president for whom the overwhelming majority of Americans have concerns about his age and mental fitness. Further, he has a ton of political baggage, and is highly contentious amongst Democrats.
Personally, I genuinely think Gretchen Whitmer (with Pete Buttigieg as running mate) would be much more likely to win in November, at least according to post-debate polling from this leaked internal memo: https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf
She has zero interest in the gig and, other than being first lady, has absolutely zero qualifications... but then... neither did Trump.
Whatever happened to the "Draft Oprah" movement?
has absolutely zero qualifications
This is completely false.
Yeah she is definitely way more qualified than trump is. He's not qualified to do shit except cause problems for anyone for personal profit. I wouldn't trust him with any fucking job let alone being president.
She’s far more qualified than Trump but according to her husband’s book she didn’t even want to be First Lady. And as much as I don’t hold what I view as Barry’s presidential shortcomings against her, we have had far too many political family dynasty’s in this country. Let’s not have another
Yup, but I take it as a good indication just how desperate the electorate is for someone who is just generally seen as a good, competent person.
family dynasties* in this country
While I do not believe she ahoukd run, unlike Trump, she is qualified. She has degrees from Princeton and Harvard and is an attorney. And more importantly, she is wicked smart.
That was also an AstroTurf campaign to outrage white voters.
Fuck Oprah. She's an out of touch Billionaire who's commitment to junk science set Dr. Oz and Dr. Phil loose on the world and gave Jenny McArthy a platform for her anti-vax autism bullshit. She's absolutely not who we want running for president.
Please stop dragging her into this.
She'd never want to be President. I'd argue we wouldn't like her very much if she was the kind of person that did.
She’d never want to be President.
Paraphrasing Douglas Adams, that would make her the best candidate. But in real life, perhaps not so much.
Time to put in Big Mike, coach!
~~Are there raw results published anywhere? The most recent IPSOS I can find is from May 2024 and based on this, it seems Biden and Trump are unchanged at 40% each between surveys.~~
EDIT, nevermind the July 2024 raw survey is here
Shocking, have to doubt
I'm also wary of any poll that shows such a strong showing for Kamala Harris. Not saying it's wrong, it legitimately looks like it's got a lot of good data, but every other poll I've seen has been fairly unfavorable to the idea of her running against Trump.
Yeah this just looks like a name recognition poll. Kamala's chances of beating trump aren't any better than Biden's.
Well it does seem that more people would vote for trump against her as well as more people vote for her. So maybe it's legit?
