I think all politicians are less popular than they think, people are losing faith in our officials to do their jobs.
this post was submitted on 07 Mar 2024
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I don't care how unpopular he really is, the problem is the RNC is set to win the presidential election with only 2 swing state victories.
That's about 5 times as popular as I would prefer him to be.
Um, who thinks tiny d is popular?
2024 Presidential Election Polls.
Those polls also put Hillary ahead by a mile. I'd rather see the opposition think they have to fight, so they, you know, actually fucking fight instead of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
TBF, those polls were biased against Trump. And now they're showing he is ahead. That alone should be pretty alarming.
So, hey, isn't this like that one time where you guys thought he had no way of winning but kinda sorta won anyway?
The magas are gonna vote trump come hell or high water. The never trumpers should do the same. It's not everyone else's problem, and believing they have the numbers so I can sit it out is what got him in the office the first time.
Probably true, but I refuse to click on any Newsweek links. They've become a completely sensationalist rag.
Articles like this scare me as it may cause people to not vote. We need people out there voting to protect our rights.
This. All the protest and sit out votes might as well have him back in the oval office. Guess who's gonna whine the loudest when that happens?
The polling wasn't off in 2016, it was actually super accurate and missed the result by only one point.
Trump isn't popular, but he doesn't need to be, he just needs to be less unpopular than Biden, and right now polling is suggesting that he is exactly that.
Do you remember 2016? Most pollsters picked Hillary to win. It was not "super accurate". Most people were shocked by the outcome.
And no, Trump isn't "less unpopular" than Biden. That's the point of the article. Based on the current polls, Trump should not be struggling at all against a centrist candidate that no one knows (Nikki Haley). That's like a pro team having trouble beating a college team. It's not good and shows large problems.
Biden only has pressure from the left, and there isn't even a candidate that can stand against him. The "no one" votes, are mainly people saying they want a generic progressive who doesn't exist right now. In the general election, it's much harder to overcome centrists who dislike you than right or left wing voters.
I remember. The polls were accurate. The pundits were not. People were shocked because they didn't want to believe that there are really that many loathsome morons around, not because they looked at what polls said.
Here are the main polls for that race on the eve of the election. What they actually said was that the race was close to a tossup, with Clinton perhaps very slightly favoured to win.
Here and here are favourability ratings. As you can see, Trump's are substantially less negative.
You are comparing "approval" ratings with "favorability" ratings. Trump has no favorability ratings because he's not in office. These are not the same.
Biden's "favorability" is lower because there are people who want him to be more progressive. That doesn't mean they won't vote for him in a race against Trump.
You can't use "favorability" to gauge whether people will vote because it compares the candidate to a mythical generic person. The ballot doesn't ask "do you like what Joe Biden is doing?" it asks "do you prefer Biden or Trump?"
Those are very different questions. Biden will pull ahead once people actually think about Trump being president. It's not a hypothetical like in 2016. He was president and he lost in 2020.
That doesn't mean they won't vote for him in a race against Trump.
I've seen a lot of them say they won't. I've seen people who I know in the past have argued that we have to support Clinton or Biden in the general election, because Trump is worse, and even campaigned for the lesser-evil candidate, turn around and say they can't support Biden this time. I don't know if they will reconsider, as the election gets closer, or when faced with reality of a ballot in front of them - I certainly hope so - but I'm not taking any vote for granted in this election.
As an aside, while the violence against Palestinians has really caught people's attention, I don't know why people seem more mad at Biden this time than last time, or more mad than they were at Clinton. There hasn't been a president in the last few decades at least who would have handled the situation better; on other issues, Biden has proven much better than I expected when I held my nose and voted for him last time; and Trump is a cornered animal, much more dangerous this time around.
I wasn't saying favourability ratings should be used to predict elections. For that you have polls (in which Trump has a substantial but not decisive lead). I was just responding to the comment about who is more unpopular.
I think that people who respond to pollsters overwhelmingly know that Trump was president before, and clearly it doesn't bother them what a train wreck that presidency was. It's not clear to me how they would suddenly start realizing that closer to election day.
Trump is going to fade the more in public he is. He is losing his mind and he fact he shits his pants and wears a diaper is starting to catch on. That's really going to hurt him. Careful with real clear politics, they were bought by right wing billionaires.
The RCP website is full of garbage partisan puff pieces. But a poll average is just a poll average. It was super close in the 2022 midterms.
I don't know how anyone could've missed that Trump is moron, but if voters are indeed only now catching on, there's no sign of it yet in polling.
Doesn't matter. Vote like he is and make sure to keep him out!
According to the 2016 polls, he was really unpopular and we know how that turned out.
Keith Ellison tried to warn us in July 2015 and they literally laughed at him.
Exactly!
Does it matter if they've got that Christi-fascist god-bothering speaker of the house to install him anyway, regardless of the election outcome? It sounds like the more rabid gop members are Russian sock puppets, he'll just be the head sock puppet...
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