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192

The first exit polls for the German federal elections are out (feddit.org)

submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

70 comments fedilink hide all child comments

geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814

The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2025-ergebnisse-so-hat-deutschland-gewaehlt-aktuelle-daten-a-6ace92df-43cc-48de-b183-2c98c7c19c2f

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 2 months ago

Voting for conservatives makes planes fall out of the fucking sky

do they want planes falling out of the fucking sky because that's how they get planes falling out of the fucking sky

[–] [email protected] 51 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The shit neo-Nazi filled AfD gained a lot of ground. WTF.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Right wing nazi parties are gaining traction all around Europe. Social media has given them a platform where they can make small problems look like big problems. Most of the people voting for them only look at 1 agenda item, which is immigration. Besides that they know jack shit about what these parties are about. If you look at the agenda items, it's all tailored for the elite.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

An extremely far right party in ireland got a lot of following on twitter, then in the election about 5 people voted for them. Guess Americans and Russian bots can't vote.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Yeah that too.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)

We also got Russia and the US weaponizing social media to support far-right parties. The EU needs to get their shit together.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago

Promoting fediverse apps is the way 🙌🏻

[–] [email protected] 34 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago

It's not as bad as some polls suggested, but it's pretty fucking bad.

There are few options for coalition-building that don't involve the far-right AfD as the other parties have promised. Meanwhile the far-right and conservative right hold an absolute majority between them, giving them options to approve a lot of heinous shit as they've shown they are willing to do in line with their xenophobic rhetoric.

The upsides are that the Left successfully reinvented their profile and made major gains after being pronounced dead (for the 8th time), the Greens didn't lose as much as the anti-woke anti-education narratives suggested, and the neoliberals are fully out after torpedoing their own government coalition.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Aside from what the others have said, there is also a 2nd exit poll, with slightly different estimations. If reality will match this one, the BSW will get into parliament. They are a splinter party of the leftists, taking a most of the tankie nutcases with them.

They won't be in government or important opposition, but if they make it, the 2 centrist parties alone don't have enough seats. This means they need a 3rd party to form a government, and they have no good options. The preferred party would be FDP, but they are estimated to not make it. The greens would normally be up to it, but CDU/CSU campaign has mostly run on getting the greens out of government. And the Leftist, BSW and AFD are all too extreme for the very pensioner friendly CDU/CSU.

There is a chance we simply won't have a stable government and will have to redo this election, but from most to least likely:

Reality is closer to the first poll, boring centrist government, AFD can try again in 4 years
The CDU will make some meaningless concessions to the greens and the greens will fall for it
The CDU will completely destroy any trust and form a government with AFD
There won't be any stable government and a new election is called.
Any Leftists in Government
There won't be a stable government, our president still elects a chancellor, we will have 4 weeks of a minority government and then someone triggers new elections.

Edit: Results are in, BSW missed getting into parliament by a very slim margin. CDU can form a stable Government with SPD.

[–] [email protected] 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.

I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago (2 children)

So basically as if Democrats won? then why are people so upset?

I don't think I understand

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

No, more like if (somehow) George Bush and Trump ran against each other and Bush won.

Its far from a great result but its not as bad as it could've been and, from a European standpoint, it means there's strong opposition to Trump and strong support for Ukraine.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Because this kind of coalition was the definition of stale, boring politics in the past. No innovations, mainly slight adjustments here and there.

During the last time that coalition said something like "Das Internet ist für uns alle Neuland." which means something along the line of "The internet is frontier land for all of us." Within seconds #Neuland (frontier land) became the hash tag for a shitstorm that still lasts to this day - after 12 (!) years.
The internet was already established and well in use everywhere for ~20 years. And now the politicians suddenly recognized a new form of communication. If it wasn't so funny I would have cried.

That's why everyone is disappointed. Can't wait to hear what stupid shit this goverment will tell us. 🥱

[–] [email protected] 7 points 2 months ago

CDU/CSU are basically what Republicans have been a couple years ago. They are very much far right, just not facist.

[–] [email protected] 41 points 2 months ago (1 children)

As a foreigner in Germany, CDU is not centrist at all. Maybe you should consider how your definition of "center" changed in the last years. CDU is a right wing party, CSU even more, leaning into populist views, Afd is extremist.

I wish SPD was left. Most of its policies of the last years were pretty much the same as right wing parties.

[+] [email protected] -17 points 2 months ago (3 children)

CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.

You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Wir sollten eine SA gründen und aufräumen!“ – Andreas Geithe, AfD

We should form an SA and clean up!’ - Andreas Geithe, AfD

Immerhin haben wir jetzt so viele Ausländer im Land, dass sich ein Holocaust mal wieder lohnen würde.“ – Chatprotokoll Marcel Grauf

After all, we now have so many foreigners in the country that a Holocaust would be worthwhile again.’ - Chat protocol Marcel Grauf

Ich würde niemanden verurteilen, der ein bewohntes Asylantenheim anzündet. Ich würde mir so sehr einen Bürgerkrieg von Millionen Toten - Frauen, Kindern, mir egal - wünschen, Hauptsache es geht los. Insbesondere würde ich laut lachen, wenn so etwas auf der Gegendemo passieren würde. Tote, Verkrüppelte, es wäre so schön. Ich will auf Leichen pissen und auf Gräbern tanzen. Sieg Heil!“ (Marcel Grauf, AfD) Marcel Grauf ist Mitarbeiter der AfD-Abgeordneten Christina Baum und dem AfD-Politiker Heiner Merz.

I wouldn't condemn anyone who sets fire to an inhabited asylum centre. I would so much like to see a civil war of millions of dead - women, children, I don't care - the main thing is that it starts. I would especially laugh out loud if something like that happened at the counter-demonstration. Dead people, crippled people, it would be so nice. I want to piss on corpses and dance on graves. Sieg Heil!’ (Marcel Grauf, AfD)

Marcel Grauf is an employee of AfD MP Christina Baum and AfD politician Heiner Merz.

Abschiebung der Antifa nach Buchenwald“ – Mirko Welsch, AfD Mirko Welsch war der Bundessprecher der Homosexuellen in der AfD

Deportation of the Antifa to Buchenwald’ - Mirko Welsch, AfD Mirko Welsch was the federal spokesperson for homosexuals in the AfD

Es ist richtig, Menschen mit schwarzer Hautfarbe auch weiterhin N**** zu nennen.“ –Thomas Seitz, AfD

It is right to continue calling people with black skin colour N****.’ -Thomas Seitz, AfD

Nothing to see here folks. Defenitly NOT an extremist political party. Move along now!!!

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago

If Elon Musk is showing up at their events telling them not to be ashamed of their history, then they are absolutely extremist.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it's compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They're not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren't prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won't be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it's monogamous.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They've promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they're all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they're courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 months ago (1 children)

They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification

...no. And their opposition to the law wasn't transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential, which is why the law that got passed says that name changes are transmitted to police etc. so they can figure out whether someone's trying to escape justice that way. Queer community of course didn't like that but it did insulate the whole thing against attacks from the right.

and marijuana legalization for instance

They won't. Also they'd fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now. Fixing it, OTOH, forget it.

and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric

Hell they aren't because SMEs aren't. Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes. The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally. The whole economy of the whole east is up in arms about lacking workers and the AfD scaring away those they could get. They're going to bury the topic as quickly as they can. That Netanjahu invitation might actually be exactly that: That's giving the Springer press opportunity to forget about the whole xenophobia thing and instead focus on purported anti-semitism on the left. Because, *checks notes*, executing international arrest warrants is antisemitic. Expect candlelight vigils with pictures of sniped children, I'm confident Die Linke knows how to play that one, this isn't about preventing the visit at all costs but exposing bigotry on the right. Did I already mention that Merz sucks at strategy?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

And their opposition to the law wasn't transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential,

Or maybe they just hide their transphobia behind a thin veil of reasonable-sounding, legal arguments.

and marijuana legalization for instance

They won't.

They will use that topic for diversion in a pinch. It's mostly meaningless to them, but they'll happily jump at the chance to play off unemployed stoners against the hard-working middle class.

Also they'd fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now.

That's genuinely somehing for a judge to decide. And it's usually years before unconstitutional laws are revoked.

[xenophoobic rhetoric] Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes.

Merz is also, genuinely, a bigot. In all possible respects: toward women, toward foreigners, toward gender and sexual minorities, towards non-Christians, ...

And there are also all manner of attempts to divide non-Germans within Germany, one of these is:

Good: "we paid for this person to come here and take care of that elderly lady".
Bad: "this person is now caring for an elderly lady, but they're worthless because they came as a refugee originally, they need to go"

Don't forget that all the rhetoric of the past 3 months, from the right-wing parties in particular, but also from SPD, and even the Greens with their "deportations to Afghanistan and Syria, sure, but only to a rational degree" ideas have already spooked people living here. We're also bound to see right-wing attacks rise further.

Merz and CxU are also not paragons of rationality. Everybody knew, and they must have known that they would only strengthen the Afd if they went all in on "bad foreigners" as the primary campaign topic. Really, 100% predictable. But they did. They used a terror attack to start the discussion and executed just as Merz had wanted to for 20 years, in fact. And they indeed lost 4.5% since the polls in November and the election last weekend, much of it to Afd. Primo job!

The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally.

One of the interests of that lobby is actually undercutting pay those employees. That's significantly easier when your employees don't know about their rights, when they're not working legally, etc.

You mentioned SMEs. SMEs are not that important to CxU, even less to Merz. But they look good as figureheads, so they get some breadcrumbs, and lots of mentions in speeches. And they're told to grow.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Or maybe they just hide their transphobia behind a thin veil of reasonable-sounding, legal arguments.

That's paranoia, not analysis, also, the CDU is too big to keep such a conspiracy secret. It'd rather look like the AfD's attempts to not look fascist. Also, they'd be facing opposition from the churches to... capture a sentiment that doesn't really exist outside of a couple of rabid people noone will tear away from the AfD, anyway? To discriminate against one of the first groups of people the Nazis persecuted?

They will use that topic for diversion in a pinch. It’s mostly meaningless to them, but they’ll happily jump at the chance to play off unemployed stoners against the hard-working middle class.

True, still those topics are a dime a dozen and first they'd have to actually desire a ruckus. Right now is the absolute worst time for that, they want unity and stability to a) face the existing geopolitical threats and b) look better than the traffic light and c) don't know whether they realise that but to weaken the AfD, which thrives on democratic parties bickering.

Everybody knew, and they must have known that they would only strengthen the Afd if they went all in on “bad foreigners” as the primary campaign topic.

And there was internal opposition! But CDU does as CDU does once Merz was elected leader, not so much because Merkel's wing would be weak but because the middle wing wanted to balance the scales, the rest of the party kept silent to only moderating slightly. They do that kind of thing all the time, shifting the external perception of the party by putting different people on the front. They might not be deep strategists but they know what strategy is and they have the internal discipline to follow through on it.

Side note did you notice Söder very much emphasising social stuff in the Union faction press conference. Fuck me if in the end it's the Bavarians causing a resurgence in social housing projects etc, actually combat the core reasons why the AfD surged. Maybe even sell it as a grand "Bismarckian" thing, ignore the AfD, say it's to keep the icky left in check.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

That's paranoia, not analysis, also, the CDU is too big to keep such a conspiracy secret.

How about Merz claiming he "understands" Trump's only-two-genders exective order, then? Is that paranoia too or are there reasonable explanations for that? I don't see Merz become a champion of civil liberties anytime soon.

Also, they'd be facing opposition from the churches to...

That is not an issue. Most recently, Söder basically told churches to stop supporting the "wrong" causes if they still want state money. Julia Klöckner left a church board, because it wasn't right-wing enough for her anymore.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago (2 children)

How about Merz claiming he “understands” Trump’s only-two-genders exective order, then?

I also understand it. I don't support it, in fact I oppose it, but I do understand it. If there's one thing that's sure right now is that Merz, a lifelong, staunch, Atlanticist, feels betrayed by America and Trump is on the top of his shitlist.

I don’t see Merz become a champion of civil liberties anytime soon.

Yeah but by that measure we have to declare the whole of the SPD fascist. Even worse, thinking about nothing but civil liberties you suddenly start to respect the FDP so I'd advise against that, always keep all the struggles in mind or they trick you.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Look I'm not trying to argue that Merz is a paragon of virtue. What I'm arguing is that

a) a lot of things are way more important to him than the things you are worried about and

b) there's checks on his behaviour, from inside the conservative population. They know who did and who did not murder Lübcke, who agitated against him (among others, Steinbach) which is why right now nobody, literally nobody, is backing Merz as Lübcke's widow is ripping into him for his "where was Antifa" comment: The Antifa was there, it was Merz and the other paleoconservative CDU people who weren't. This idea that he can do what he wants is falling for the conservative's apparent unity while in reality it's a cesspit of backroom deals and backstabbing.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago

I also understand it. I don't support it, in fact I oppose it, but I do understand it.

You're splitting hairs here. This is clearly not the kind of understanding that Merz meant. During one of the chancelor duels/quadrels, there even was a question related to either the topic of gay marriage or to trans acceptance and Merz couldn't for the life of him give an answer that would affirm the right of gay/trans people as normal humans. Whereas Scholz right next to him easily could which brings us to the next point...

Yeah but by that measure we have to declare the whole of the SPD fascist. Even worse, thinking about nothing but civil liberties you suddenly start to respect the FDP so I'd advise against that, always keep all the struggles in mind or they trick you.

... in fact, FDP hasn't done good on that topic. SPD and Greens did way better at fighting for civil liberties than FDP which has gone all out in its embrace of economic liberalism along with fairly conservative social policies. There's a reason why abortions are still a criminal offence in Germany and lots of other things, and that reason is FDP and Marco Buschmann.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 2 months ago

Without divine intervention we will get Friedrich Merz as chancellor, the guy who just one month ago was fine with working together with the Neo Nazi party Afd.

So even if a coalition between CDU and Afd isn't happening, our chancellor is kinda Trump light. Mostly in it for himself and his industry buddies, no political experience and not used to doing compromises. And if somebody criticizes him, he cries like a little baby how unfair we are treating him for calling him a fucking fascist sympathizer.

So I expect a shitty time, but it looks like CDU and Afd can't rule alone and the party that is responsible for the whole fiasco, the liberal FDP, got kicked out of the parliament, so at least that is a silver lining.

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