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Rashida Tlaib and 'uncommitted' voters just delivered a major rebuke to Biden over Israel — and it could make him lose Michigan to Trump in 2024 (www.businessinsider.com)

submitted 8 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (1 children)

in 2012 uncommitted got 11% of the vote against actual human being running for reelection barack obama.

as of this moment uncommitted is. getting just under 15%. the other actual human being running for the dem nomination has barely under 3%.

unless all of those uncommitted voters don't vote for biden in november I don't see biden in any trouble, especially if those uncommitted democratic voters are made up by by around 30% of haley voters.

what this does tell me is that there is a major bias against biden in the media, as if they are actively reporting the news to make it seem like biden has some major electoral issues when a) trump has even bigger issues than biden and b) the numbers are simply not telling that story.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago (1 children)

They haven't counted the Arab American counties yet. Dearborn is showing unofficially 75% uncommitted per CNN.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

last report I saw via msnbc was dearborn at 56%. but even if it was 75%, it's still not enough of a margin to really be an election concern at this point for the state overall, especially since you don't know how many haley voters would vote biden.

make note of the result and do your best to resolve that issue but it's not a 5 alarm fire. that's the most muslim and specifically palestinian area of the country by far. the congressional district might get a few delegates out of this so it's going to be heard at the convention. but if that's going to be the extent of the discontent I don't think biden has to really be worried nationally.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (8 children)

Oh sweet summer child...

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 8 months ago (3 children)

"Uncommitted" is at about 15% now vs 10.7% the last time someone (Obama) ran unopposed, but most votes haven't been counted yet. I would have waited until the counting is over before talking about major rebukes.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

The campaign's target was 10,000 voters, because that's how many votes Clinton lost Michigan by in 2016. It's already way over that.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

There would have been well over 10,000 even with no campaign at all.

We went back and looked at Michigan Secretary of State data to see how many uncommitted votes have been cast for each party in the past presidential primary elections.

For Democrats, the numbers were:

2012: 20,833

2016: 21,601

2020: 19,106

Source, with links to the official data

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (1 children)

With 41% of the votes counted they're at 50,000.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 8 months ago

Turnout is much, much higher than it was during Obama's uncontested run. It looks like it's going to be about 925,000 total Democratic voters, as opposed to about 195,000 in 2012. With that said, 50,000 is still about 13.5% of the votes counted so far, which does look unusually high to me, although I would need more context if it was my job to advise Biden.

Anyway, that's not really the point I was trying to make originally. (There's no point in partisan bickering about something that will be objective fact tomorrow.) I was just annoyed that the media was jumping the gun before the votes were actually counted.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 8 months ago

The largest Arab American counties are showing 4% counted.

[–] [email protected] -4 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

Shhh you’re fuckin up the narrative

[–] [email protected] 25 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Biden gets 80% of the vote in the Michigan primary.

Trump gets 66% of the vote in the Michigan primary.

Media: Major rebuke to Biden! It could make him lose Michigan in the general!

[–] [email protected] 3 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Not sure what the percentages of the separate ballots have to do with this. Do you think the same amount of people voted in the democrat and republican primaries?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Uncommitted gets 65,000 votes in the Michigan Democratic primary.

Nikki Haley gets 200,000 votes in the Michigan Republican primary.

Media: Major rebuke to Biden! It could make him lose Michigan in the general!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

And how many did trump get?

[–] [email protected] -2 points 8 months ago

Not as many as Biden + Haley.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago (3 children)

You're mixing up the Democratic and Republican primaries. Trump was running against Haley whereas Biden was unopposed.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 8 months ago (1 children)

So Biden supporters had even less reason to show up and vote for him than Trump supporters. Thus underestimating Biden support.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 8 months ago (5 children)

Whereas protest voters had more reason to show up to nonvote against Biden.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago

Look at this asshole commenter here... making Dean Phillips cry. What a meanie!

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[–] [email protected] -3 points 8 months ago

There is zero reason Biden is still running. There is zero reason the DNC and a country of Dems couldn't find anyone else to replace him with. Campaign money to DNC, greed and corruption.

There isn't a single patriot in the entire national Democratic body that cares about the future of this country.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 8 months ago

"I was proud today to walk in, and pull a Democratic ballot, and vote 'uncommited,'" Tlaib said in a video message on Tuesday. "President Biden is not listening to us. This is the way we can use our democracy to say: listen. Listen to Michigan."

"President Biden has funded the bombs falling on the family members of people right here in Michigan," Elabed said in a statement on Monday. "Thousands of Michigan Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020 now feel completely betrayed."

It remains unclear how many of the "uncommitted" voters will continue to withhold their support in the general election, but organizers have argued that it's on Biden to earn their support — and they say it won't be their fault if Biden ends up losing Michigan to former President Donald Trump in the general election.

Ahead of the Tuesday primary, officials with the Biden campaign had pointed out that around 20,000 voters have opted to select "uncommitted" in recent presidential primary elections — though the circumstances have varied.

"Uncommitted" accounted for less than 2% of the vote in recent competitive primaries, including 19,106 uncommitted voters in 2020, and 21,601 in 2016.

Four years earlier, when Obama did not appear on the ballot, many of his supporters cast uncommitted votes over his opponent Hillary Clinton, leading to 238,168 votes that accounted for roughly 40% of the electorate.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 8 months ago (4 children)

Make no mistake. His stance on Israel could make him lose.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Yep.

Billionaires own the media, and billionaires really really really want to make sure the furthest left America goes is neoliberals.

So anything that isn't 100% Biden gets shouted down as undemocratic, which is so hypocritical it almost breaks my brain.

Biden is a bad candidate, and ignoring it and running him anyways it what may allow trump to win.

If trump wins, billionaires are fine. If Biden wins, they're still fine.

The only way they lose is if instead of Biden there's someone who's platform matches what Dem voters want.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (3 children)

The problem is anti-Biden proponents never provide a viable candidate who can beat both Trump and Biden in November when asked to do so.

Whinge about Biden all you want, but unless an alternative is provided, it's shouting into the void at best and helping Trump at worst.

I support what Michigan did, and I hope Biden gets the message, but I also hope they're not so far up their own asses that they forget that handing the presidency to Trump in November won't actually solve the problem of genocide and will likely bring along other human rights violations.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

but I also hope they’re not so far up their own asses

Some of these uncommitted voters have had family members killed in Gaza and you nonchalantly just tell them get their heads out of their asses? Wow.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago

The problem is anti-Biden proponents never provide a viable candidate who can beat both Trump and Biden in November when asked to do so.

Plus Gavin Newsom has already told these people to fuck off.

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Which is insane given that the man to whom he'd lose would be far worse for Palestineans...

The only way it makes sense is if the people who'd not vote over Israel don't actually care about Palestineans so much as being on the "right"/socially cool side of the issue. Otherwise not voting for Biden over trump because of Israel is like refusing to ride home with your friend because they had a beer and instead hopping in the car with the guy who was slamming tequila all night.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 8 months ago (1 children)

It seems very much to me like people trying to keep some ideal of purity for themselves, and if someone who unironically says, "genocide Joe" would care to correct me I'm listening, but it's unclear how letting the guy who changed the us stance on settlements being unlawful to being totally cool win because of your unwillingness to recognize that this world is actively on fire, and we have to live with whatever future we steer to regardless.

"If you decide not to decide, you still have made a choice."

[–] [email protected] 10 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

Are you really expecting someone who lost relatives in Gaza to vote for the guy who had the power to do something about it and didn't?

This campaign is telling Biden that there's a voting block that holds the balance of power in a swing state, and all he has to do to get their votes is pick up the phone, tell Bibi to wrap it up or he gets no more weapons (and yes, it is that simple. Reagan did it when Israel invaded Lebanon).

But instead of meeting voters where they are, Democrats seem to fall back to their usual MO of blaming voters, instead of winning votes by doing things that are popular with voters.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 8 months ago (5 children)

So, first:

No, I do not expect someone who lost relatives in Gaza to vote for the person they blame for it. Humans are creatures of emotion first and logic second, and the vast majority of people won't be able to divorce themselves from their emotional state to do the expected value math. That doesn't mean that, by letting Trump win, they will be doing something other than permitting more people to get massacred faster.

Are you aware that the administration has been pushing on them to not do the shit they've been doing? It seems to me like the answer to that is no, and you expect Biden to just declare terms to a country half a world away which has quite a lot of weapons already, up to and including nuclear arms, I think. Israel is capable of producing weapons on their own. Today isn't 40 years ago.

Biden has done many things that are popular, but people are poorly informed. How much student debt has Biden forgiven, off the top of your head and without consulting the internet?

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago (21 children)

It makes them feel better to think it's just online leftists doing purity politics rather than a deeply angered population who have been giving him every opportunity to turn away from this and mostly just treated as an inconvenience.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

People have outright stated to me that they are doing purity politics. While I cannot prove that every single person I suggest is likely doing so, is actually doing so, I am not making such claims in a vacuum.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago (2 children)

You took a handful of anecdotes from your online life and decided "I understand the electorate"? Do you think ~15% of Michigan is online leftists?

[–] [email protected] 0 points 8 months ago

I took a handful of anecdotes from my online life and decided that people I encounter online have a decently high probability of being more examples of the same thing.

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[–] [email protected] -1 points 8 months ago (2 children)

The only way it makes sense is if the people who’d not vote over Israel don’t actually care about Palestineans so much as being on the “right”/socially cool side of the issue.

This statement is incredibly disrespectful to the people who are currently losing relatives in the 10s and 100s due to Biden's actions. Like hell they're not in this to be on the socially cool side of an issue shut the fuck up.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Due to Biden's actions, or due to the actions of the government of Israel on which Biden does not have a leash?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 8 months ago (1 children)

He literally does though. Israel only got this far because of unconditional US support.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Unconditional US support from 2021-2024 is what got Israel there? Are you of the view that if we dumped them completely, right now, Israel would collapse or have no ability to prosecute their war against the Palestinians? To the best of my understanding, this is not the case, and I do not believe Biden has the ability to flatly dump Israel singlehandedly; I believe we have treaties with them, which are the law of the US and would need to be nullified by congress, which is never happening, and cannot reasonably be laid exclusively at Biden's feet.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

Israel would collapse or have no ability to prosecute their war against the Palestinians?

Not collapse, but they wouldn't be able to continue bombing Gaza to the ground. I can't find the source (Edit: But their reserves are too limited). They'd also need to actually think of their neighbors' responses to their actions (remember how Sisi threatened to go to war over Gaza until Blinken had a "talk" with him), but let's set that aside because it's not something Biden can control single-handedly.

Biden has been bypassing Congress to send them weapons, pressing Congress for Israeli aid and on top of all that defending them at the UN (preventing measures such as UN-led sanctions from taking place). These are things Biden could stop doing right now that would materially impact Israel's campaign in Gaza, and the fact that he's not doing that is causing him to hemorrhage voters.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 8 months ago

So, I don't disagree that he's doing those things. I'd also rather he stop those things, and push in the other direction, in a vacuum. It is not obvious to me that sending them weapons right now actually has much impact on their ability to conduct their genocide, and I suspect that what he is doing here, which again, I'd prefer he not, is in service to...

Reciprocity is a strong drive in humans. Giving someone something, even something they don't need, puts them in a space to agree to your requests, more so than if you flatly made them. It may be that those efforts, dislikable as they are from the perspective of an individual voter such as you or I, may be part of the realpolitik of getting Israel to stand the fuck down and stop killing people what the hell is wrong with you all seriously please please please stop fucking killing people. Ahem. He's been ramping up the pushback publically, and I think that pushback is lagging the private pushback, with the intent to have a stronger bargaining position. I will admit that I have insufficient data to have a strong belief in this area, and I do in fact rate that a weak belief, but it's consistent with the evidence I have.

This universe sucks and we need to make it better. Throwing up our hands and letting the guy who will send US troops to shove Gazans into the ocean and hold them underwater is the opposite of making it better. The majority of probability mass in november rests on a Biden-Trump competition. Of those options, I prefer Biden. Not because he's perfect, but because I can see that in a competition between bad and worse, worse is worse. Shit sucks. Opting not to vote doesn't opt you out of that world.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 8 months ago (2 children)

The only way it makes sense is if the people who'd not vote over Israel don't actually care about Palestineans so much as being on the "right"/socially cool side of the issue.

This is it. Politics is messy, and people don't want to get their hands dirty making a hard choice.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 8 months ago (2 children)

I think those people would think that defending Biden from critique over Palestine is more of an indication of not caring than protesting against it by threatening not to vote for him.

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[–] [email protected] 36 points 8 months ago

He's still got my vote...

The alternative is Trump and the end of democracy in our nation. If you're not terrified of Trump winning in November, you either haven't been paying attention or you're a moron.

Vote Biden. Not because you agree or disagree with his war policies or think he's been a good or bad president. Vote because the alternative is so much worse. Vote because we literally have Nazis schmoozing publicly with the other party like it's no big deal! Vote because you don't want an actual rapist in office! Vote because you want to be able to vote again in 4 years. Vote because you want your children to grow up in a nation that's still free.

Just fucking vote!

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago

True, just another reason that could make him lose in 2024.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago

This is the best summary I could come up with:

President Joe Biden may have handily won the Michigan Democratic primary on Tuesday, but the results came with a significant warning sign for his continued support for Israel.

It's largely the result of the "Listen to Michigan" campaign, an effort to get voters to withhold support for Biden until Israel enacts a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.

The campaign has been led by Layla Elabed, a Michigan activist and the younger sister of Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American member of Congress.

The results illustrate the unique challenges that Biden faces in the crucial battleground state amid the war in Gaza, where almost 30,000 Palestinians have been killed since the October 7 Hamas attacks.

Tens of thousands of Muslim-Americans and Arab-Americans live in Dearborn and metropolitan Detroit, including some whose family members have been killed in recent months.

In 2012, when President Barack Obama faced a non-competitive reelection and there was no organized effort to push voters to cast uncommitted ballots, 20,833 did so anyway, accounting for 10.7% of the vote.

The original article contains 585 words, the summary contains 172 words. Saved 71%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

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