this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2025
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Science Memes

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Moon Dust (mander.xyz)
submitted 3 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

That's funny and all but if it happened 1 in 12 the chances that it's very common are orders of magnitudes higher than it being super rare DUH

[–] [email protected] 16 points 3 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

It's a very non-representative, very small sample. The error bars in the statistical inference to the whole population includes both "very common" and "one-in-a-million".

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

What do the bar represent in 3d space?

What do they represent in 3d space?!? (aggressiveduck.jpg)

Gaussian distributions.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 days ago

Not every error bar represents a Gaussian, if for no other reason that most error bars aren't symmetric.

The error bars for small sample size relative to population size are Gaussian.

Error due to a non-representative sample can have a variety of shapes, but their distribution might also be unknown. We do frequently, almost implicitly, assume unknown distributions to be Gaussian, but we should recognize that's not necessarily a true fact about the universe.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Assuming a representative sample, the best point estimate is 1/12 (8.33%), and the 95% confidence interval is 0.21% to 39%.

Longer explanation here: https://lemmy.zip/comment/19753854

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Assuming a representative sample

That's the thing I doubt a team of highly skilled astronauts will be representative of the human population

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I think if anything they would be biased towards having fewer allergies than normal people. Which suggests that 0.21% (1 in 500) is a reasonable bound for how rare a moon dust allergy could be.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Never really verified it but I think allergies are more common in developed countries. If that's true, that the data is skewed in the opposite direction

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 days ago

Probably more commonly identified