I'm not sure how to write this without it sounding like ragebait or a fed post.
But why do most fellow Marxists critically support Russia today?
I can understand having seen Russia as a potential temporary ally or a necessary power that can stand against US / NATO hegemony over the globe. In short I can understand it from a strategic standpoint.
But what about morals of this?
To explain I've seen seen Russia as a necessary potential ally in the past too. But that has changed with the Ukraine war and concurrent events in Russia.
The way I see it, even with a CIA coup, a full scale invasion of a country still isn't justified. It's bordering on insanity in my mind to start such a war. The way the war and conscription is handled in Russia is also highly critiquable. The way people who fall from grace, also "fall out of windows" too.
The other major event that made me doubt Putin more was part of the leaks that happened with Navalny's death. Specifically the revelation of how Putin spend hundreds of millions not just on a palace like so many corrupt leaders and dictators do, but essentially what amounts to an own private town.
This is what lead me to believe that Putin devolved into insanity and paranoia from what he used to be, a calculated sensible dictator.
With all this in mind, why should we offer critical support to Russia instead of Ukraine?
Yes you can argue that Ukraine has been taken over via a pro-western coup regime, but they're still not the aggressors in the war.
I find it morally questionable to support an aggressor in such a clear scenario. And purely strategically speaking with how Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, I find their military capabilities not great either for any conflict with NATO.
Do any of you have any moral reasoning to critically support Russia? Or do you support it out of strategic reasons despite moral objections?
How much do you know about the era prior to Russian intervention in Ukraine? As far as i understand it the Ukrainian backed neo-nazi groups were literally shelling ethnically Russian towns, and killing civilians long before Russia stepped in. So i don't think portraying this as a black, and white agressor vs defender situation is correct. Donetsk, and Luhansk were actively asking Russia to intervene.
Now do i think that is why Russia intervened? Because they are just super nice, and wanted to help? Fuck no. They did it for geopolitical reasons like anything else. To secure the historically single most effective corridor for invading Russia. That doesn't mean that context is irrelevant though.
This is also functionally a proxy war. It's the US vs Russia, but the US is using Ukraine as its manpower pool, and bullet sponge. Ukraine doesn't have the ability to defend itself like it's done alone. Even with western backing it's losing.
The war only happened because the US wanted it to happen. They played Russia, but it backfired on them. The US wanted Russia to come in, and get weakened by Ukraine. Didn't really care how much damage Ukraine took in the process. But Russia is arguably better off militarily today than it was before this war started. It's also strengthened the ties between China, and Russia since Russia relies on China to be its economic lifeline in spite of all the sanctions.
So to answer the question: Why critically support Russia?
Morally- Tie: Neither side is worth a damn. Ukrainian civilians and Russian civilians are both innocent, and leadership in both countries is irredeemably evil.
Strategically-Russia Wins: Russian victory weakens the US. Aids the long term goal of destroying US empire.
Pragmatically-Russia Wins: If Ukraine maintains its independence it will have a total lack of young people, destroyed infrastucture, and be economically insolvent. It will be turned into a resource extraction site for the west, and likely never recover. It's neo-nazi government will be backed by the US, and impossible to overthrow via domestic rebellion. Another war could happen at any time. Not just with Russia, but with Turkey, Poland, etc. If conditions arise to allow it. As Ukraine will still not have nukes, and will be weakened significantly.
If Russia wins Ukraine will be taken over, and become part of Russia. Economically they'll be better off. Likely with significant investment from both Russia, and China in rebuilding their infrastucture. Still used as a resource extraction site, but since manpower will be able to be brought in from the rest of Russia working conditions will likely be better. They'll now be under the Russian nuclear umbrella. So unless WW3 happens another war isn't likely. (Yeah WW3 isn't exactly unlikely, but yknow.) Ukraine also has significant wheat production. To the west this is kind of a meh thing. They have plenty of farmland in the US, and are more interested in minerals. But Russia/China would be quite interested in maintaining wheat output, and would not risk it just to get some minerals. Not just for their own use, but to keep nations like Egypt stable. So the international food supply markets are likely to be more stable in this situation. Which helps not just Ukrainians themselves via jobs, and investment, but anyone in a food insecure region too.
Anecdotally-Russia wins: Idk how much this matters to other people, but personally when it comes to foreign policy stuff I recognize that the info we as civilians have access to is limited. So i look to the positions of organizations i believe have similar long term goals to my own, communist orgs, and also have access to more information. Intelligence agencies, etc.
China: Officially neutral, but leans toward Russian support.
DPRK: Openly supports Russia.
Vietnam: Neutral, Abstains from UN votes about the conflict.
Cuba: Leans pro-Russia.
These have a clear trend. When 0 AES states are supporting the side of Ukraine that tells me all i need to know. The situation isn't black, and white clearly. But critical support for Russia is the choice that makes the most sense for me. Not that my random poor person trying to survive opinion does much of anything.
Highly doubt they’d annex the whole country, they’ll absorb the significant Russian-speaking oblasts ofc but the rest would probably be under a Union State member provisional gov (as well as a top market for premium bodyguards to protect officials from 24/7 guerilla attacks)
Beyond that idk what I’d expect beyond a surge in internal support for aforementioned guerilla cell networks likely dominated by gladio’d up OUN-style groups, as well as whatever company makes Lexapro finding a way around sanctions just to make a killing off of the less conservative 60% or so of citizens who hate the new gov but also are too principled to fight it alongside guys with kolovrat face tats
the Soviet collapse and its consequences etc, era of blackest reaction etc