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Do not underestimate how much some people (even in Texas) hate Ted Cruz. I can totally see a ticket split there.
I mean, if Beto "Psychedelic Warlord" O'Rourke can almost win there after threatening to grab everyone's guns, then there must be a lot of people looking for any alternative to Cruz.
I am in Texas, and I do hate Ted Cruz. But in 2020 we saw Trump underperform down-ballot races. We would have to see him outperform them this year and we now have the fallout from Dobbs motivating voters in favor of Harris. What issues would make someone vote for Trump and not Cruz?
Except Beto never mentioned the gun buyback program or AR-15s or anything about guns until 2019 - the year AFTER he lost to Cruz.