United Kingdom

EDIT: sorry to up voters. I tend to take time to edit to get my ideas down. So much may have been reworded as you read it. I'm finished now and will only fix typos is pointed out. I'm severely visually impaired so typos are common. Also can spell for shit.

The idea farage can gain by splitting the Tory vote. But a new left party cannot gain when the left vote is already split to hell. With a huge % out right not voting.

Is just not logical anymore.

I assume most down voters are starting to recognise that now.

Labour has lost the hope of such a huge % of the left wing voters. They won the last election more due to Tory non voting then labour voters.

And that was before attacks on disabled. Authoritarian arrest of Gaza anti genacide supporters. And totally refusing to address the huge wealth gap creating the cost of living crisis.

They have lost a huge % of polling post the election.

So the logic that not voting Labour will lead to reform. Also a vote splitting party. Rather then coalescing the left of centre vote around a new party that actually listens to left voters. Makes no sense.

Consider these facts, Reforms percieved risk is because reform is seen to be listening to Right Wing voters post the Tory failed election. The very new anti Tory right of centre voters Starmer attempted to appeal to in the election. While literally dragging along a small % Left of centre voters who fear Tories.

Labours polling shows a huge loss of trust in even the small % of left wing voters. As the Starmer government has continued the worst of Tory policies. While: increasing attacks on disabled, Censoring opposition to the Gaza genacide (imprisoning protesters for supporting an idea not their activities), showing huge curruption in accepting gifts etc (exactly like the Tory govs).

Add to that the very insistence in refusing to raise taxes on those that have gained the most wealth over the last 2 decades. IE capital gains and non PAYE based ttaxes.Basically refusing to challenge the tory press arguments of any tax rise is breaking their promise. (Clearly a Tory press lie.)

Over all ATM polling indicates. Without a huge leadership change and reverse in direction. Their is absolutely no hope of Labour winning the election. And not much hope of a coalition with any Left of centre party currently existing.

Worth adding. With the current PLP while a leadership change is possible. A dramatic change in direction is not. Labour atm has a functional majority of Right of centers MPs. As shown by the recent fight over the PIP bill. And how much of a non change it took to win most over.

The most likely result in 2029 ATM is a Tory reform coalition. And let's face it. Unlike the 2010 Lib Dems. Reform will not be changing their perceived ideals post coalition. The Tories will be moving closer to reform policy. Not the other way around.

Labours current actions make this more likely not less. All they are doing is trying to split reforms support. While pushing more centre right in that direction.

The only hope of a true Left of centre change. Is a left wing party willing to listen to and form the most broadly acceptable Left of centre policies. Actually forming a party (or changing an existing one but I don't see that happening). That can win the majority of left support. Amd start to push the overton window back.

The only true negative I see. Is Lack of a leader that can win the respect of both far left and left of centre voters.