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I don't doubt anything you are saying, but it's worth mentioning that (iirc) 80%+ of severe injury and death on a bicycle is caused by motor vehicles, or complications of motor vehicle involvement. People very rarely have severe injury or death on dedicated bike infrastructure. The primary risk on bicycles is motor vehicles. If you remove motor vehicles, there is still risks, but someone might decide that risk is low enough to forgo a helmet. I don't feel those people should be called stupid for their choice.
There is considerable evidence that everyone wearing a helmet in a car would save vastly more lives and prevent severe head injury, and yet pretty much no one even considers that as a normal thing to do. The bike helmet thing is therefore just as much a cultural attitude, as it is about safety.
I still use a helmet, and more importantly, visibility gear, on my bicycle in 100% of my rides. I've never worn a bike helmet walking or driving in a car, even though my cousin died from a head injury getting hit by a car while walking and my grandma-in-law died of a head injury in a car...
Which would mean ~1 in 5 have absolutely nothing to do with a motor vehicle. That's significant.
Then that should be an easy [citation needed] for you because my searches are coming up blank for actual studies. Lots of assertions of it, but I'm not finding anything in terms of actual data.
It's very easy, on the other hand, to find comprehensive meta analyses on the efficacy of helmet use.
It's also worth noting that the introduction makes a point of calling out another common online assertion that you repeated -- that helmets make people engage in more risk-taking behavior -- as false:
I don't think they're stupid. I think they're bad at risk analysis. That's a pretty inherent feature of humans. It's the reason I want to see actual data.
There is also this interesting dutch study, where somehow helmeted cyclists were 25 times more likely to end up in a hospital. Of course the reason for that never comes up as something problematic from the side of our solely safety concerned citizens, they will congratulate you for your new speed record down that hill.