Europe

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/59668524

The head of President Andrzej Duda’s National Security Bureau (BBN), Dariusz Łukowski, has warned that Poland only has enough ammunition to defend itself “for a week or two” if it was attacked by Russia

But his remarks have been criticised as “outrageous” by a deputy defence minister, who says they are not true and will be exploited by Poland’s enemies.

Paywall? https://archive.is/FrNa4

Archive: https://archive.is/2025.03.26-113538/https://www.ft.com/content/eeb1ee80-00b8-4f9f-b560-a6717a80d58d

EU households should stockpile essential supplies to survive at least 72 hours of crisis, Brussels has proposed, as Russia’s war in Ukraine and a darkening geopolitical landscape prompt the bloc to take new steps to increase its security.

The continuing conflict in Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic that brutally exposed a lack of crisis response capabilities and the Trump administration’s adversarial stance towards Europe have forced the continent to rethink its vulnerabilities and increase spending on defence and security.

The new initiative comes as European intelligence agencies warn that Russia could attack an EU member state within three to five years, adding to natural threats including floods and wildfires worsened by climate change and societal risks such as financial crises.

Europe faced increased threats “including the possibility of armed aggression against member states”, the European Commission warned on Wednesday as it published a 30-step plan for its 27 capitals to increase their preparedness for crisis and mitigation measures.

Trump has slashed education funding, meaning many US universities are facing hiring freezes and budget constraints. Economist Monika Schnitzer speaks to DW's Marie Sina about the opportunities for German universities and research institutions to tempt academics and scientists to cross the pond.

I think this is related to Europe as it may try to take advantage of the current situation in the US to its advantage. This one focuses on Germany.

Giorgia Meloni has dismissed the idea that Italy will have to choose sides between the US and Europe as “childish” and “superficial”, insisting she would do whatever is necessary to defend her country’s interests.

In her first interview with a foreign newspaper since coming to office in 2022, the Italian prime minister said it was “in the interests of everyone” to overcome severe strains in the transatlantic relationship, describing some European leaders’ reactions to Donald Trump as “a bit too political”.

Italy’s nationalist conservative leader made clear she did not see the US president as an adversary and she would continue to respect Italy’s “first ally”.

archive: https://web.archive.org/web/20250328053317/https://www.ft.com/content/96d02345-1079-47d0-b208-1e80bcedf684

Paywall? https://archive.is/qtBEV

Paywall? https://archive.is/S0oZ4

At the beginning of March, Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) defence policy spokesman Florian Hahn called for the reintroduction of compulsory military service before the end of the year.

"We can’t just sit back and watch as the world around us becomes more insecure," he told German tabloid Bild.

The latest tailwind has been Germany passing a landmark spending package, creating a potentially unlimited supply of money to rearm to deter Russia. It will also set up a €500 billion ($540 billion) fund to invest in the country’s aging infrastructure. The country’s banks are set to benefit, with Deutsche Bank AG jumping 35% this year to trade near 10-year highs.

Istanbul's jailed mayor said in a social media post on Friday that his lawyer had been detained and demanded his immediate release.

"My lawyer Mehmet Pehlivan was detained on fictitious grounds," Imamoglu said in a post on X published via his legal team. "As if the coup against democracy was not enough, they cannot tolerate the victims defending themselves," he wrote, adding: "Release my lawyer immediately."

Two more Turkish journalists were also detained in dawn raids on their homes for covering the mass protests that have swept across the country, sparked by Imamoglu's arrest on March 19, the Turkish Journalists' Union (TGS) said in a post on X.

The union identified them as Nisa Sude Demirel, a reporter for the Evrenselnewspaper, and Elif Bayburt who works for the ETHA news agency.

Archive: https://archive.is/2025.03.28-064203/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/opinion/mayor-imamoglu-arrested-erdogan.html

What is happening in Turkey and many other parts of the world demonstrates that democracy, the rule of law and fundamental freedoms cannot survive in silence, nor be sacrificed for diplomatic convenience disguised as “realpolitik.”

Undeniably, recent events — Russia’s war in Ukraine, the overthrow of the al-Assad regime in our neighbor Syria and the devastation in Gaza — have enhanced Turkey’s strategic importance, not least given its critical capacity to help with European security. However, geopolitics should not blind us to the erosion of values, particularly human rights violations. Otherwise, we legitimize those who are dismantling the global rules-based order piece by piece.

The survival of democracy in Turkey is crucial not just for its people but also for the future of democracy worldwide. The age of the unchecked strongmen demands that those who believe in democracy be just as vocal, forceful and unrelenting as their opponents. Democracy’s fate depends on the courage of students, workers, other citizens, unions and elected officials — those who refuse to remain silent when institutions crumble. I have faith in the people of Turkey and beyond who fight for justice and democracy.

The Bank of Finland’s Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) expects Russia’s annual GDP growth to slow to around 2 % this year and about 1 % in 2026 and 2027.

Russian growth in recent years has been driven by surging government spending on the war in Ukraine. We expect government spending to increase further this year, but production is already stretched to capacity, limiting potential for further output gains. The country’s labour shortage has grown more acute, inflation is accelerating and sanctions are limiting Russia’s foreign trade. Although a full-blown economic crisis in the immediate future is unlikely, Russia’s economic development is subject to exceptionally high risks as long as it continues the prosecute its war in Ukraine.

• Output growth is expected to slow even with the expected increased government spending. Labour shortages and production capacity constraints mean that growth levels of earlier years are now out of reach, so inflation will accelerate.

• Investment possibilities are limited by decreasing earnings, rising labour and material costs, as well as an increased tax burden from higher tax rates. Total investment, however, will be sustained by budget financing and other government support measures.

• The outlook for private consumption is also bleaker. Purchasing power has been eroded by lower wage growth and rising inflation, and consumer expectations have dimmed. Consumer credit has become more costly and harder to get, and the extensive interest-support programme for housing loans has ended. Despite distinctly lower growth, full employment, modest improvement in purchasing power and spending of household savings should be enough to sustain private consumption this year. The role of the public sector in driving consumption will also become more pronounced.

• The vigorous growth in government spending during the war on Ukraine has driven Russia’s government finances into deficit, with deficits running at roughly 2 % of GDP a year since the start of the war. The current budget framework calls for a reduction in the annual deficit to around 1 % of GDP during 2025‒2027. This framework relies on rather optimistic assumptions, however, so the deficit could again turn out higher than planned.

• Oil prices, Russia’s relations with China and sanctions are among the most significant external factors affecting the outlook for the Russian economy. A significant tightening of sanctions would weaken Russia’s economic development. A sharp and prolonged drop in oil prices would also significantly curtail Russia’s government finances and ability to make war. Russia’s economy could severely suffer if relations between China and Russia degrade. Russia has become highly dependent on China in recent years.

• War has degraded the Russian economy’s long-term growth possibilities, and output gains have relied upon government spending on branches connected to the war effort. Investment in war also diverts assets that could otherwise go to sustained economic growth that promotes national well-being.

What would a ceasefire mean?

• If the fighting in Ukraine ends, [Russian] spending needed to sustain the war effort is unlikely to diminish [...] as it would go to stockpiling and regenerating resources for future conflicts.

• If no lasting peace agreement is achieved, the temporary truce or ceasefire agreement would give Russia an opportunity to rebuild its economy for making war later. Russia’s re-arming possibilities are most solid in scenarios involving a truce that leads to a partial lifting of sanctions (even briefly). Larger export earnings would enable Russia to build up new economic buffers. Loosening restrictions on imports would allow Russia to build up its stores of critical import goods and components for the future needs of its military-industrial complex.

ROME - For nearly two months, the Italian government has evaded questions, dismissed allegations, and shifted its narrative in the face of mounting pressure from opposition parties and activists.

Now, a turning point: Undersecretary Alfredo Mantovano has reportedly admitted that Italy’s intelligence services authorised spyware surveillance on members of the NGO Mediterranea Saving Humans. Yet, a crucial mystery remains - who was behind the surveillance of Fanpage.it director Francesco Cancellato?

The parliamentary intelligence oversight committee (Copasir) is investigating whether the use of the Israeli spyware complied with Italian law and whether intelligence services acted within their mandate in authorizing preventive wiretaps.

While the hearings remain classified, leaks from Tuesday’s session published by La Repubblicasuggest that Mantovano - who oversees intelligence agencies - acknowledged that the government had approved surveillance on certain activists. However, he maintained that Cancellato was never among the targets.

Archive: https://archive.is/2025.03.28-051233/https://www.ft.com/content/c3933e2f-787e-453b-82eb-a981ddd48a31

The EU is set to impose minimal fines on Apple and Facebook owner Meta next week under its Digital Markets Act, as Brussels seeks to avoid escalating tensions with US President Donald Trump.

According to people familiar with the decisions, the iPhone-maker is expected to be fined and ordered to revise its App Store rules, following an investigation into whether they prevent app developers from sending consumers to offers outside its platform. 

Regulators will also close another investigation into Apple, which was focused on the company’s design of its web browser choice screen without any further sanctions.

Meta will also be fined and be ordered to change its “pay or consent” model which forces users to either consent to data tracking or pay a subscription fee for an ad-free experience of its products.

Archive: https://archive.is/2025.03.25-034656/https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/03/25/sweden-rebuilds-its-total-defense-model-in-which-every-inhabitant-must-be-prepared_6739488_4.html

It was 6 pm on Thursday, March 20. Twenty-five people had signed up for the course entitled "Sköt dig själv" ("Take care of yourself"), offered free of charge online by the women's organization Lotta. The two instructors in their thirties started by advising on how to recognize an emergency situation – the number to call, the radio frequency to listen to. Then, for more than two hours, they detailed the food and equipment to be stored at home, before encouraging people to cultivate a piece of garden or balcony, to increase the country's food self-sufficiency, 50% dependent on imports.

Civil defense organizations offer courses like this one every week in Sweden. Although the possibility of armed conflict is rarely mentioned, it is on everyone's mind. "Sweden is not at war. But it's not at peace either," summed up conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on January 12. None of the kingdom's 10 million inhabitants can ignore this. In November 2024, they all received in the post a new edition of the booklet "In case of crisis or war," distributed by the Civil Protection Agency, reminding them that they must stock at home enough to eat, drink, heat and look after themselves for one week, without any outside help.

Printed three times during the Cold War, the brochure had already been sent to 4.9 million households in 2018, following Sweden's decision in 2015 to resurrect its "total defense." Developed after the Second World War to cope with a "total war," this model, combining military and civil defense, was based on the principle that the army would not be enough to protect the country: Its population still had to hold out.

Archived

Emboldened by the Trump administration’s split with Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to directly test the resolve of the postwar Western military alliance.

In an interview with German business daily Handelsblatt, the chairman of European aerospace and defense group Airbus warned the continent needs to arm itself now that it’s likely the United States will not honor its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 common defense clause.

“There are strong indications that Russia is preparing an attack on NATO’s eastern flank,” René Obermann told the newspaper on Monday, adding that Putin will not likely wait until Europe has enough time to build up its own sovereign capabilities for deterrence before striking.

[...]

Obermann argues the Russian dictator has placed his country’s economy on a wartime footing with a fiscally unsustainable 10% of gross domestic product diverted to its military, according to Obermann. That’s five times the NATO minimum target, and Putin also plans to mobilize 1.5 million soldiers—the world’s second largest standing army after China.

With so much already invested, ending his expansionist campaign and returning to peace risks the one thing Putin appears to fear most—political upheaval. That may be one reason why a joint military exercise is planned for this year in Russia’s neighboring client state of Belarus.

“That is reminiscent of the events leading up to the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the internal pressure [in Russia] to deliver new victories through military conquest likely will grow,” he said.

[...]

Visualised growth of renewable energy between 2016 and 2024. It can be done, just keep on building and keep ignoring the fossil energy companies. Who don't understand energy at all.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/live/2025-01-06-kampen-om-groenlands-fremtid/amerikanere-stemte-doerklokker-i-nuuk-foer-aflyst-besoeg-siger-steinmetz?entry=2b1ef233-8348-47f6-8219-f8783a4b72cd