lennybird

Dems controlled weather to destroy... Jobs report...?

I think it's kind of strange people think Harris wants to be associated with this Genocide. If it were that black-and-white, she clearly would've taken a harder position.

But if she does, then the larger Israeli-sympathetic Jewish voting bloc in PA that dwarfs the Muslim vote in Michigan (with less Electoral votes, mind you) gets jeopardized. If she doesn't toe the line, she loses, Trump wins, and Gazans are definitely fucked.

Like it's completely obvious why she has to have this position, lest she's immediately cast as antisemitic.

I think you're giving Trump far too much credit that he was dancing on stage because he had nothing to do and coasting to victory and that wasn't just an obvious sign of dementia. Let's be honest, here, the polls have been pretty much tied and within the margin of error this entire time. So I find this to be a bit speculative and expecting more than Trump than he is really capable of.

I'm nowhere saying this is a shoe-in. I am just explicitly responding and providing context to, "republican voting is up in places it matters"

I also disagree that she campaigned poorly. I think she campaigned exceptionally given the time she had and the needle she needed to thread with both distancing from Biden but also citing that the economy is, in fact, improving phenomenally on the world stage and post pandemic. To pick up the mantle in three months and run as well as she had? The Democrats have honestly not been this united since 2008 maybe, and that speaks to the fact that she brought onboard 5 veteran Obama campaign staffers. Regardless of the outcome, this has been historic.

Sounds like your main gripe is really her policy on Gaza, which unfortunately during election season you need to get the votes needed to cross the finish-line... Which means catering to the Jewish votes in Pennsylvania perhaps more so than the Uncommitted voters in Michigan by the nature of electoral votes. You saw that Elon Musk is spending millions in PA with attack ads with opposite messages targeting BOTH the (larger) Jewish community and the Muslim community in PA — yes? She literally has no choice but to toe the line between these two groups.

Moreover, I want to know at what specific point in time in polling anyone had confidence we were heading for a blue wave when polls are all we know?

The Iowa poll which has been dead-on in terms of gauging turnout in 2016 and 2020 compared to nearly any other pollster just gave Harris a +3 in Iowa. A +3 in Iowa. Keep that in mind.

If we're going to go into more speculation as you're suggesting we do, then I can point to 2022 and show that the Red Wave turned into a Red Mirage. Why? Simply: Pollsters did not account for the over-performance of Democrats post-Roe Reversal. Polling volatility given registration numbers and cross-over from Republicans is very volatile right now. It is entirely possible we see that same over-performance again, and thus a red wave turns into a blue mist, wave, or tsunami even given that Platinum-tier Iowa poll. Don't forget 538 had 59:41 odds of GOP getting the Senate.

In the end who knows and I'll hope for the best and expect the worst. But given the circumstances I think the Harris campaign has done great. I don't think we as laypeople could do better. Easy to throw peanuts from the sidelines.

• You're going to see more registered Republicans crossing over to vote for Harris than perhaps any Democrat has previously received.

• More are voting early, but that's to be expected given Trump learned from the 2020 mistake of dissuading his voters from early voting. It doesn't mean greater turnout; it just means the same voters Trump had before are voting earlier.

Always vote, but yes, I'll believe Texas and Florida turn blue when I see it.

Reassurance is women are out-voting men by 10pts in early voting.

Fully 35% of black voters say they plan to vote on election day alone.

538 gave 59% odda GOP to take the Senate in 2022.

Not only do these polls have a margin of error, but they are only predictive insofar as their likely voter models are accurate, and registration volatility and GOP crossover support for Harris means they likely aren't.

There is no evidence that the low propensity incel bro vote is churning out as hoped.

But there are conservative-leaning never trumpers who have an ounce of moral standards that doesn't let them vote for Trump who is unquestionably worse than Liz Cheney in every way (namely, she didn't try to overthrow democracy on January 6th and continue to peddle the Big Lie).

It is these voters Liz Cheney seeks for Harris and it's clearly scaring the fuck out of Trump lol

Voting earlier is generally better because it removes you from the list of voters Dems have to reach out to and allows them to focus on lower propensity voters.

I voted earlier than ever this cycle. I also canvassed for Harris and got several people who don't normally vote to vote in battleground states. These are not people captured by LV models.

That Rick Scott is even publicly addressing this means they're worried as hell lol.

The gap in early voting was never going to be as wide as 2020. Trump was actively telling his cult to NOT vote early. Now they're telling them to do just that.

At the end of the day, the take-home message of this article is that Democrats are over-performing with seniors relative to 2020.

Trump is running 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over, slipping back from the previous month, when he and Harris were tied with that demographic. It’s a major shift from 2020, when Trump carried 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in a losing effort in the state.

Fair point. I feel Immediately following elections Democrats need to pivot into this one-part educational teacher mindset to dispel common myths on us history and civics (eg, "The Dems were the slavers!"), and one-part activism. Every election cycle we fall for the trap of letting the blind lead the blind. To carve out the winning electorate by whatever means necessary as you say. But when do we actually try to nudge Americans in the right direction? This is what I commended Warren or Sanders for because they built a movement around where the country needed to go through facts and conviction and persuaded people.

Democrats rarely persuade and equally fall for whatever bullshit narrative Republicans design.

I wish Dems would start spitting fire and come out with an ad going through the list of prejudices throughout our history.

"Native Americans / Aborigines? Italians? Jews? Asians? Blacks? Latinos? Women voting? Muslims? Gay? And now trans?

Isn't it always something? When will we all see the pattern here that these witch hunts always fall on the wrong side of history. And they're always perpetrated by the same sort of people - not grouped by the color of their skin race or religion, but of profound ignorance rooted in fear of the unknown. Cutting across every other adjective used to divide us, we are ALL human."

Side note but my god I still think of that Bernie Sanders ad from his 2016 campaign, Vote Together.