We haven't done any releases yet, but no post scores will still be okay.
dessalines
This page has some background, but historically they've always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they've been around.
Gamblers don't always get it right, but this page has some interesting history: https://electionbettingodds.com/about.html
Gamblers, polls, and the NYT's most sophisticated prediction algorithms all got it very wrong in 2016, and severely overestimating hillary and underestimating trump. But of those three, the prediction markets were the least wrong.
Sry for the downtime, we're back up.
We tried several things but weren't able to diagnose the specific problem, but we've narrowed it down to a specific file. We're keeping track of it in this issue. Most likely its gonna be one of those extremely simple things that got missed.
Thx for being patient, we'll probably have more downtimes in the future as we need to test more fixes.
I can't tell which you're trying to do, apologize for maga chuds or kamala's abuse of black people and immigrants.
That's not a poll. It's an aggregate / average of betting markets.
The tiny minority of sociopaths that sit at the top of the pyramid of US corporations and its state are the self-selected few who got to where they are because they lack empathy. They're the ones who can't be convinced out of it.
Take any large group of ppl and there will be a few assholes among them. What's unique about the capitalist mode of production, is that it makes sure those people run the entire society, and control the nuke codes.
Genocide is never inevitable. It says a lot about the US's supposed "democracy" that you think it is.
They both dislike Israel for different reasons. Jill Stein is against Israel for its ongoing genocide. David Duke is against Israel because he's an anti-semite. These are not the same.
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
You don't care about Kamala's treatment of black people?
I've been following a lot of these, and unfortunately nearly all of them are dead.