Forget the user count. It's probably mostly spammers. MAU is the important one.
As more fediverse platforms start to be fully interoperable with each other, it should feel more active here. Plus the upcoming possible downfalls of reddit and twitter should cause another semi-dramatic growth. As soon as they start doing some sketchy shit that even the normie users find bad, we should see an increase in both user count and MAU in the fediverse. Mastodon will probably be the biggest one for ever or maybe for just a few years as Reddit users come to Lemmy.